ATL: EIGHT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

For BOC area.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
201309051146
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013090506, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013090406, , BEST, 0, 215N, 917W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090412, , BEST, 0, 215N, 926W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 215N, 934W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 215N, 940W, 15, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2013090506, , BEST, 0, 215N, 944W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115559&hilit=&start=0

[ninel conde]

Hopefully it can get some moisture to texas. might get to be a weak TS.

[supercane4867]

Well defined LLC

[tolakram]

IR loop, no visible yet.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-93&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

[ROCK]

all guidance points to MX so this should be pretty cut and dry track if it does develop.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 213N, 944W, 20, 1010, LO

[Portastorm]

Hopefully it can get some moisture to texas. might get to be a weak TS.

Nice thought but it'll probably be too far south.

[tolakram]

Visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-93&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[RL3AO]

Seems to be the only area that wants to develop anything quickly. Probably another quick storm out of it...

[Gustywind]

8 AM Tropical Weather Discussion.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N91W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO...
TO 21N93W AND 24N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. THE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT ARE AND HAVE BEEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE INCREASED COMPARATIVELY. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

Looks almost as good as Gabrielle?

[CrazyC83]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041553
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 04 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 05/1200Z,1800Z A. 06/0000Z,06000Z
B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0307A CYCLONE
C. 05/1045Z C. 05/2230Z
D. 18.0N 68.0W D. 19.5N 69.0W
E. 05/1130Z TO 05/1800Z E. 05/2330Z TO 06/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 05/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 05/1730Z
D. 22.0N 95.0W
E. 05/1900Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON
CARIBBEAN SYSTEM WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
4. REMARK: THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK IS FLYING A 24-HOUR
RESEARCH MISSION TODAY OVER AND EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM
AS MENTIONED IN TCPOD 13-094 AND WILL RELEASE 80 DROPSONDES.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

Recon still flying into this?

[Extratropical94]

Recon still flying into this?

It looks like they're still planning to go.

There's no remark in today's TCPOD about a cancellation of today's flight.
Only the flights to Gabrielle have been cancelled...

[...]
4. REMARKS:
A. THE MISSIONS ON GABRIELLE FOR 05/1800Z, 06/0000Z
AND 06/0600Z WERE CANCELED AT 05/1400Z BY NHC.
B. NOAA WILL DEPLOY EITHER ONE OR 3 AIRCRAFT TO ST CROIX
FRIDAY FOR RESEARCH MISSIONS THIS WEEKEND
[...]

[Sanibel]

Broad Low finally gelling.

['CaneFreak]

Looks like it is getting sheared (20-30 knots) and will be inland tomorrow.

['CaneFreak]

BTW, that image was from late yesterday afternoon just so you know.

Well defined LLC

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Heading west?

[Extratropical94]

Heading west?

A little south of west, but very slowly at the moment.

AL, 99, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 215N, 940W, 15, 1011, LO,
AL, 99, 2013090506, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 20, 1010, LO,
AL, 99, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 213N, 944W, 20, 1010, LO,

Animated visible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Rgv20]

Saved Image: Looking good so far.

[ROCK]

hmmmm...might sling some showers up your way RGV....