ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

There's no LLC near 17.4N/67.7W. Recon indicates any LLC may be well west of 68W, if one exists at all. I can't find any west wind on the plot of recon reports:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

[CalmBeforeStorm]

There is a broad circulation at around 18.0 65.5 (over Vieques). I think that with that massive energy that was to it's east last night there was no way this wasn't going to reorganize in the middle. I think a new LLC forms right where you would expect it to given the satellite presentation.

[ninel conde]

A brief update from 09Z regarding Gabrielle (toward the end of the video) as well as TD 12E, TD Yutu (97W) and Invest 90W.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BL4RwG24Bxw

well done.

[Aric Dunn]

There's no LLC near 17.4N/67.7W. Recon indicates any LLC may be well west of 68W, if one exists at all. I can't find any west wind on the plot of recon reports:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf.png

there are a couple but just south of there the winds turn back se and satellite to west of 68 showing nothing but low level easterly flow. I highly doubt the nhc is going to keep her alive.

Time: 12:40:30Z
Coordinates: 16.9833N 68.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,590 meters (~ 5,217 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.0 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 282° at 3 knots (From the WNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 17.0°C (~ 62.6°F)
Dew Pt: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 0 knots* (~ 0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[RL3AO]

Often the NHC will keep something like this alive for an extra advisory or two, but in reality I don't think its a tropical cyclone right now

[wxman57]

Plane is finding SE winds to the SW of there, Aric. Looks like it lacks a well-defined LLC and doesn't qualify for TS status.

[Aric Dunn]

Often the NHC will keep something like this alive for an extra advisory or two, but in reality I don't think its a tropical cyclone right now

yeah not only that if you want to call that area a circ then its due west at a good clip and in the wrong direction of all the models.

[Aric Dunn]

Plane is finding SE winds to the SW of there, Aric. Looks like it lacks a well-defined LLC and doesn't qualify for TS status.

I agree 100%

[galaxy401]

Is it possible for the circulation to reform in the heavy convection to the northeast?

[ninel conde]

Is it possible for the circulation to reform in the heavy convection to the northeast?

doubtful. the convection there is being absorbed into a strong upper low se of bermuda.

[blp]

Strong spin around 18N around 65.5 but is not supported by surface maps as being Mid or Low leve circ.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

The 700mb and 850mb levels are messy to say the least. 700mb is especially streched out all the the way to the East vort now. That East vort is not going away anytime soon.

850mb
http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/3895/qdas.gif

700mb
http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/8718/t20e.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Plane is finding SE winds to the SW of there, Aric. Looks like it lacks a well-defined LLC and doesn't qualify for TS status.

I agree 100%

hey wxman57 take a look at 1km visible about 15 images ... there is a very tiny vort and thats it.. still dont think its a TC atm

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[ROCK]

Is it possible for the circulation to reform in the heavy convection to the northeast?

doubtful. the convection there is being absorbed into a strong upper low se of bermuda.

how is this doubtful? what guidance are you looking at? Please elaborate.

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest animated VIS GIF. Clearly something spinning just to the East of Puerto Rico. Looks to be drifting north and not moving much:

[cycloneye]

I can report from Puerto Rico that it has been an underperforming event here with only some scattered showers and winds between 10-20 mph. No flooding has been reported nor casualties so Gabby has been for the most part a non event here.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like strong low wind shear ... typical for the eastern carrib

[ROCK]

Gator that is whats left of the MLC.....I think Aric got the LLC pegged moving west towards DR......above

[Aric Dunn]

Gator that is whats left of the MLC.....I think Aric got the LLC pegged moving west towards DR......above

would hardly call it a llc.. its a small vort that has very little expanse maybe 50 miles ... not a TC

[tolakram]

I really do think the old LLC is SE of Hispaniola.

RGB Loop

[ROCK]

Gator that is whats left of the MLC.....I think Aric got the LLC pegged moving west towards DR......above

would hardly call it a llc.. its a small vort that has very little expanse maybe 50 miles ... not a TC

LLC / vort / eddy .. ..I think that is all that is left of her at the low levels.