ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

I find the psychology of this situation very interesting. If there had never been a Gabrielle everyone would be very excited about the nice mid level spin with the related deep convection and the nice anti-cyclone over top of it at around 18.0 and 65.0

What anti-cyclone? I did not see one on the shear chart.

[tolakram]

What is the Mid-shear like?

Mid-shear chart: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

[gatorcane]

WV animated GIF showing the big trough digging SE into the Northeastern United States. The question is will it be strong enough to pick up Gabrielle or her remnants?

[Ntxw]

Ugh another name waster. I really thought it looked good yesterday, how quickly things change. I hope she doesn't reform, if 2013 is going to stink we might as well get the record latest hurricane (sat era) just a week left.

[HurriGuy]

WV animated GIF showing the big trough digging SE into the Northeastern United States. The question is will it be strong enough to pick up Gabrielle or her remnants?

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/7176/z5x.gif

As weak and how little north it has drifted, I would think not. What is your opinion?

['CaneFreak]

NCAR's Tropical Cyclone Page has Gabrielle now listed as a Tropical Depression. Let's see what the NHC says at 11.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al072013/

[cycloneye]

Bye Gabby!.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013

...GABRIELLE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION...
...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 68.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

[gatorcane]

WV animated GIF showing the big trough digging SE into the Northeastern United States. The question is will it be strong enough to pick up Gabrielle or her remnants?

As weak and how little north it has drifted, I would think not. What is your opinion?

I am leaning towards Gabrielle's remants and associated surface trough to her east hanging around a little north of Puerto Rico for several days and not getting picked up by the trough. Question is whether those remnants redevelop or not or whether something along the associated surface trough tries to develop?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurriGuy]

INIT 05/1500Z 17.5N 68.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.3N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 19.6N 69.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

New intensity forecast from NHC. Dissipating in 24-36 hours.

[NDG]

Very interesting that the buoy near 21N & 65W, NE of P.R., has been reporting north winds with falling pressures, it is the buoy to the west of the deep convection associated with the TW NE of TD Gabrielle.
So indeed last night's Euro could be correct of something spinning up here later today or tonight and quickly move NE.

[lilybeth]

So, how do we think this is going to affect the system riding in tandem with Gabrielle? I don't know much about how things normally work with two systems so close like that. Will Gabrielle's fading increase the chances that the other system develops? Appreciate any thoughts on this.

[tolakram]

Significant winds noted by recon north of PR. 60+ kts and it looks like they are still at operational level.

[CrazyC83]

Could Gabrielle be dying and the other blob taking over? Would it get a new name?

[tolakram]

Wind direction is wrong, 60+ kts out of the south would put the center west of that location.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Dean4Storms]

I would watch the area NE of St. Thomas under that deeper convection. That might develop and move northward and picked up by the CONUS trough.

At the same time need to watch the area of low pressure moving more WNW toward Hispaniola once it gets north of that island. Not so sure that disturbance gets picked up by the trough.

[HurriGuy]

Wind direction is wrong, 60+ kts out of the south would put the center west of that location.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I can't find where they found 60 knots. You mind posting?

[HurriGuy]

One significant thing to point out is that every buoy in the vicinity of this big mess has pressures rising. I couldn't find one with falling pressure.

[Hurricaneman]

One significant thing to point out is that every buoy in the vicinity of this big mess has pressures rising. I couldn't find one with falling pressure.

You're right, the lowest surface pressure is with that naked swirl so this is clearly being severely sheared, but with the winds found this is was prematurely dropped from TS status

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[wxman57]

Can't find any FL winds over 37-38 kts, myself. MLC of disturbance NE of Gabrielle appears to have dissipated overnight. Could regenerate north of the Caribbean in a day or two.

[tolakram]

I was looking at colored barbs on the recon graphic. That was dumb of me, probably error flagged.

No, worse, I mistook brown for orange and then did not check the actual raw data for confirmation. Need more caffeine.