Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ninel conde]

Well looks like as we approach the peak of the season of Sept. 10th, there is lack of Bermuda High feature again this year. That is good news as far as preventing threats from the East for the Eastern United States as Cape Verde systems are likely to recurve well out to sea.

Have to say am a bit surprised the Bermuda High is so weak this year as early indicators suggested that it could be quite strong going into August and September. I guess early indicators really don't mean much is what 2013 is teaching us not just as far as steering but as far as how active the season is going to be.

United States threats are probably going to have to originate from the Western Caribbean or Gulf this year given the long-wave pattern we are seeing.

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its a 4 year pattern now of no atlantic ridging. even in the dead periods we didnt go 8 years without a major hit. its pretty obvious that an east coast trof pattern inhibits development in the gom, west carib, and sw atlantic.

[Ntxw]

It's normal for recurves this time of year. We're looking at intra-seasonal changes that happens every year around this time as the season's begin to change and the troughs digging in from the north. Bermuda high is strongest near and just after the summer solstice, stronger some years than others slowly splitting or moving as summer wanes. We tend to put too much value into what happens earlier in the season as a precursor to later.

[ninel conde]

It's normal for recurves this time of year. We're looking at intra-seasonal changes that happens every year around this time as the season's begin to change and the troughs digging in from the north. Bermuda high is strongest near and just after the summer solstice, stronger some years than others slowly splitting or moving as summer wanes. We tend to put too much value into what happens earlier in the season as a precursor to later.

its normal to have storms this time of year too

[ninel conde]

Phil Klotzbach=“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust”

Well,he is already throwing the towel.

“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane scientist who, along with William Gray, produces the most widely read seasonal forecast. “The challenge with this year, unlike some of other forecast busts, is that there are no obvious reasons why.”

http://www.news-journal.com/news/state/ ... dc29e.html

placing the blame on SAL doesnt make sense. the part of the forecast they really need work on is landfall probabilities. just about every year they forecast an above normal chance of major landfalls. big work needed there. if there is a texas ridge dominate again next season then landfalls will be sparse.

[Ntxw]

I don't like anyone to bust, but if you think about it, this is really awesome. They must find a reason, and this research will lead to better forecasts in the future. Exciting times for forecasters, even though there will be some ego bruising.

I will be very interested post season what they come up with to explain. This year is quite unique, you can't really place it on SAL or shear. SAL did keep coming but it wasn't any more than last year which arguably had even more of it. We didn't see that many "naked swirls" either so to me it isn't shear. They're going to have to look further out in connection to the EPAC and WPAC too. Instability was consistently low in the MDR but again so was last year yet systems did manage to survive.

[LaBreeze]

time set a record. no cane till at least sept 12

Where? Things are pretty bleak out there, aside from Gabrielle.

[ninel conde]

time set a record. no cane till at least sept 12

Where? Things are pretty bleak out there, aside from Gabrielle.

i dont want one till after sept 12

[WeatherGuesser]

The 12th is the magic date?

Since G is about to fizzle and there really isn't anything else out there, we'll probably make it, eh?

7, 0 and 0 by then?

[Gustywind]

Seasonal hurricane forecast likely ‘a significant bust.’ Why?

Wednesday, September 4, 2013


http://blog.chron.com/weather/2013/09/s ... -bust-why/

[Ntxw]

The 12th is the magic date?

Since G is about to fizzle and there really isn't anything else out there, we'll probably make it, eh?

7, 0 and 0 by then?

Sept 11 is the current record back in 2002 so 12th would be a new record. If the thing in southwest gulf/boc gets named 8/0/0 which I believe ties 2011 for most named systems without a hurricane.

[ninel conde]

The 12th is the magic date?

Since G is about to fizzle and there really isn't anything else out there, we'll probably make it, eh?

7, 0 and 0 by then?

Sept 11 is the current record back in 2002 so 12th would be a new record. If the thing in southwest gulf/boc gets named 8/0/0 which I believe ties 2011 for most named systems without a hurricane.

records are falling this season. gabby will make it 4 in a row that formed in the atlantic deep tropics and died over open water. is that another record?

[CrazyC83]

Could we make it to October without a hurricane?

[ninel conde]

Could we make it to October without a hurricane?

possible we go the whole season. some good news is the wave that is coming off africa now that was supposed to quickly develop doesnt look all that healthy today. GFS may be overdoing it.

[Ntxw]

Could we make it to October without a hurricane?

If that happened you're talking about pre-satellite era (minus the years without any hurricanes) the latest I found was October 8th, 1905. Somebody somewhere is going to lose their job over it if that was the case unjust or not . Pretty crazy we're already top 5 latest without an El Nino.

As for the question about the MDR and number of storms without a hurricane, not sure.

As for ACE we are now 21%, Gabrielle hardly made a dent. Pretty confident we will drop below 20% soon, it's going to take a pretty significant comeback to arrive back at normal.

[CrazyC83]

If there is one thing worth noting, the main late season breeding grounds - the western Caribbean - is quite favorable for development. Something to ponder come October and November...

[Extratropical94]

You guys have to see it the other way round..

we are only ONE storm behind 2010 right now.

Hermine (8th storm) formed on this day, three years ago.
2010 had 19 TS, so 18 storms are still possible. *irony off*

[Ptarmigan]

We have 7 storms and there is 2 months to go. We got September, October, and November.

[WeatherGuesser]

Hey, I'm all for low activity records. I try to set a new one every day.

[hurricaneCW]

If this season is going to suck then might as well set some records. I'm all for the latest hurricane record, the gfs really backed away from developing the Cape Verde wave.

The gfs does show a lot of little systems developing, which we would have to keep an eye on as weaker systems are more likely to get farther west. There is also more ridging expected in the west Atlantic for next week so it'll be interesting.

It's also quite possible that October could be the most dangerous month this season as the focus will be in the very high heat content waters of the Western Caribbean where monsters like Mitch, Gilbert, and Wilma traversed (two of those in October).

[CrazyC83]

If this season is going to suck then might as well set some records. I'm all for the latest hurricane record, the gfs really backed away from developing the Cape Verde wave.

The gfs does show a lot of little systems developing, which we would have to keep an eye on as weaker systems are more likely to get farther west. There is also more ridging expected in the west Atlantic for next week so it'll be interesting.

It's also quite possible that October could be the most dangerous month this season as the focus will be in the very high heat content waters of the Western Caribbean where monsters like Mitch, Gilbert, and Wilma traversed (two of those in October).

Heck, even November could be memorable. Having no activity into midseason would increase the SST's and heat content even more as there would be no upwelling.