Wave emerging Africa: (Is Invest 91L)

[CrazyC83]

What strength are these runs showing?

Hurricane, perhaps major hurricane, and a very large storm too so the pressure would be quite low most likely. Simply put, they are off the charts for east of 30W. Perplexing to say the least...

[Hyperstorm]

This is a potential huge hurricane perhaps major hurricane in the making, as far a intense hurricanes near the Cape Verde Islands the only real fit is Fred in 2009, but this has better conditions farther west and as far as modeled size, this could be a 750mi radius type of storm which is completely ridiculous

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And I'm assuming the steering pattern like with most quickly forming Cape Verde storms if this forms quickly would suggest a BIG OL' FISH!

One of the factors that will decide its future track is a large fast moving upper-level trough in the 10-12 day time frame.

It could get pretty close to North America if it misses the trough between 9/14 and 9/16, based on last night's GFS run.

It is way too early. Right now, the Cape Verde islands are a close target.

[hurricanes1234]

It somehow has the look of a potentially strong system. Could this really be our first major?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I think Humberto will be a cat 4 that recurves. Best analogue for Humberto = Katia (2011) or Fabian (2003) but leaning more to Katia.
Hopefully he will steer clear of land, which I'm hoping for, cat 4 fishie. No landfall? At this point, no landfall..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

I think Humberto will be a cat 4 that recurves. Best analogue for Humberto = Katia (2011) or Fabian (2003) but leaning more to Katia.
Hopefully he will steer clear of land, which I'm hoping for, cat 4 fishie. No landfall? At this point, no landfall.

I doubt it will even get to 40W. I can't think of any reasonable analog, at least in the satellite era.

[ninel conde]

I think Humberto will be a cat 4 that recurves. Best analogue for Humberto = Katia (2011) or Fabian (2003) but leaning more to Katia.
Hopefully he will steer clear of land, which I'm hoping for, cat 4 fishie. No landfall? At this point, no landfall.

I doubt it will even get to 40W. I can't think of any reasonable analog, at least in the satellite era.

my analog is isabel 2003. check my post in the model thread. isabel was at 21.0 north 45w but got caught under the wheel. 18Zgfs showing the ridge growing in the north atlantic in a very similar scenario to isabel. strong high over new england. the wheel WASNT present for fabian or katia.

[TheStormExpert]

This is a potential huge hurricane perhaps major hurricane in the making, as far a intense hurricanes near the Cape Verde Islands the only real fit is Fred in 2009, but this has better conditions farther west and as far as modeled size, this could be a 750mi radius type of storm which is completely ridiculous

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

And I'm assuming the steering pattern like with most quickly forming Cape Verde storms if this forms quickly would suggest a BIG OL' FISH!

Fish? There would be land in the way - Cape Verde would see one of their worst storms ever if the worse case models become reality, and don't forget islands like the Azores...

In history has there ever been a really bad TC hit on the Cape Verde islands from a wave that came off Africa? It just doesn't seem all that likely.

[TheStormExpert]

What are the odds of this posing a threat to S. FL?

I know this is way out there and might not even actually develop but I'm just really curious especially with what all the forecasters were saying how this season could have several hurricane hits on the U.S., and the recent stronger than normal ridging. Also was the Newfoundland wheel present in the 2004 season?

[Hammy]

I doubt it will even get to 40W. I can't think of any reasonable analog, at least in the satellite era.

if you mean an analog for sharp recurve Bonnie in 1980 would be a good example.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/BONNIE/track.gif

In history has there ever been a really bad TC hit on the Cape Verde islands from a wave that came off Africa? It just doesn't seem all that likely.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1961/DEBBIE/track.gif

[hurricanes1234]

Just look at the sheer size and intensity of this, no wave so far this season has been as vigorous and intense as this.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm totally okay with it going out to sea and not bothering anybody. I just want to see a really strong hurricane spin up from scratch!!! I love tracking buzzsaw storms and watching them develop!!!

[hurricanes1234]

I'm totally okay with it going out to sea and not bothering anybody. I just want to see a really strong hurricane spin up from scratch!!! I love tracking buzzsaw storms and watching them develop!!!

Yes, I understand exactly what you mean, especially considering we've seen no good fishes so far this year.

[Extratropical94]

Up to 0/30

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ninel conde]

What are the odds of this posing a threat to S. FL?

I know this is way out there and might not even actually develop but I'm just really curious especially with what all the forecasters were saying how this season could have several hurricane hits on the U.S., and the recent stronger than normal ridging. Also was the Newfoundland wheel present in the 2004 season?

in 2004 there was a very strong ridge in the west atlantic. right now the latest GFS no longer has the wheel so the only land this may threaten would be azores or cape verde.

[Spin]

I think Humberto will be a cat 4 that recurves. Best analogue for Humberto = Katia (2011) or Fabian (2003) but leaning more to Katia.
Hopefully he will steer clear of land, which I'm hoping for, cat 4 fishie. No landfall? At this point, no landfall.

I doubt it will even get to 40W. I can't think of any reasonable analog, at least in the satellite era.

2010's Hurricane Julia, perhaps?

[ConvergenceZone]

It's still possible it can make it all the way across the Atlantic. The telling factor will be how quickly it develops. If it just remains a wave for longer than predicted, it has a much better chance of course of being a long tracker.

[cycloneye]

Once again GFS drops a hurricane from a CV wave. Is 2013.

[tolakram]

With the constant dry air coming off the higher latitudes of Africa and the shear I was wondering what it was seeing, but figured I was just missing something. Once again, no lack of waves, but they all die.

[Extratropical94]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[AJC3]

What are the odds of this posing a threat to S. FL?

I know this is way out there and might not even actually develop but I'm just really curious especially with what all the forecasters were saying how this season could have several hurricane hits on the U.S., and the recent stronger than normal ridging. Also was the Newfoundland wheel present in the 2004 season?

For any given AEW that's over Africa, I would strongly suspect it's <1 percent.