Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[tolakram]

We can realistically only see a week ahead with any accuracy.

It's becoming a stuck record to say wait till next week or next month, but regardless of how tired we are of hearing it we simply do not know what will happen yet.

I would like to see some inactivity records fall.

[CrazyC83]

We can realistically only see a week ahead with any accuracy.

It's becoming a stuck record to say wait till next week or next month, but regardless of how tired we are of hearing it we simply do not know what will happen yet.

I would like to see some inactivity records fall.

The MDR is such a graveyard this year (they can't even survive to the subtropics with any kind of clouds or circulations) the best hope will likely need to come from non-tropical sources, such as dying cold fronts and troughs.

[Ptarmigan]

If this season is going to suck then might as well set some records. I'm all for the latest hurricane record, the gfs really backed away from developing the Cape Verde wave.

The gfs does show a lot of little systems developing, which we would have to keep an eye on as weaker systems are more likely to get farther west. There is also more ridging expected in the west Atlantic for next week so it'll be interesting.

It's also quite possible that October could be the most dangerous month this season as the focus will be in the very high heat content waters of the Western Caribbean where monsters like Mitch, Gilbert, and Wilma traversed (two of those in October).

Some of the deadliest hurricanes in the Atlantic occurred late in the season; Great Hurricane of 1780, Mitch, Flora (1963), Cuba Hurricane (1932), and Hurricane #6 (1935).

October 1780 had multiple hurricanes that claimed over 1,000 lives.

[Ptarmigan]

The MDR is such a graveyard this year (they can't even survive to the subtropics with any kind of clouds or circulations) the best hope will likely need to come from non-tropical sources, such as dying cold fronts and troughs.

I wonder why is it. There is no El Nino. I also notice East and West Pacific is quiet as well.

[wxman57]

I suspect that one main culprit this year across the entire Northern Hemisphere is mid-level dry air. Take a look at the analysis of July-August 400mb (20,000 ft or so) specific humidity. This dry air extends from just below 500mb (18,000ft) upward to above the 400mb level. NH ACE is less than 50% of normal this year.

[Extratropical94]

I suspect that one main culprit this year across the entire Northern Hemisphere is mid-level dry air. Take a look at the analysis of July-August 400mb (20,000 ft or so) specific humidity. This dry air extends from just below 500mb (18,000ft) upward to above the 400mb level. NH ACE is less than 50% of normal this year.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dryair.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dryair2.gif

That's a very good graphic. Where do you have this from b/c that could also be an interesting factor in upcoming seasons?

[galaxy401]

Wxman that reasoning does make a lot of sense on why there are a lack of powerful storms. Does anyone know what causes the higher than normal mid level dry air?

[wxman57]

You can generate your own graphics for any parameter, any month, year, etc., here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

[Extratropical94]

You can generate your own graphics for any parameter, any month, year, etc., here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Thanks! I appreciate it.

[Ptarmigan]

Wxman that reasoning does make a lot of sense on why there are a lack of powerful storms. Does anyone know what causes the higher than normal mid level dry air?

Interesting about the dry air. I wonder if all the dry air came from Sahara. I notice they follow upper air pattern.

[wxman57]

Wxman that reasoning does make a lot of sense on why there are a lack of powerful storms. Does anyone know what causes the higher than normal mid level dry air?

Interesting about the dry air. I know for Atlantic, it comes from the Sahara. I wonder for Pacific.

Not entirely true. The Saharan Air Layer impacts the very lowest few thousand feet, not the 400mb level. And that's not Saharan Air all the way over in the West Pac or Indian Ocean.

[ninel conde]

good news is jb refuses to cave.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

Tropical wave near 30w: Slow to develop should be a player. Warm ocean, more active wave train, building ridge n atlantic =activity

sweet. when wil the next super wave modeled to be a hurricane die off? looks like we will break the record for latest cane. now lets make it unbreakable and go for no canes.

[WeatherGuesser]

If you stop and think about it, aside from a few unfortunate strong ones, it's even been a slow year for tornadoes and other storms. We've had a wet year for rainfall, but not a lot of major storms.

[ninel conde]

If this season is going to suck then might as well set some records. I'm all for the latest hurricane record, the gfs really backed away from developing the Cape Verde wave.

The gfs does show a lot of little systems developing, which we would have to keep an eye on as weaker systems are more likely to get farther west. There is also more ridging expected in the west Atlantic for next week so it'll be interesting.

It's also quite possible that October could be the most dangerous month this season as the focus will be in the very high heat content waters of the Western Caribbean where monsters like Mitch, Gilbert, and Wilma traversed (two of those in October).

Heck, even November could be memorable. Having no activity into midseason would increase the SST's and heat content even more as there would be no upwelling.

sst's are meaningless when the air is bone dry

[ronjon]

All this talk of no hurricanes is a bunch of hooey. Late season will be active based on analog years where the first hurricane formed late in the season. I see the Euro is building 500 mb ridging in the 7-10 day time frame over the SW Atlantic with the east coast trough retrograding west to the central GOM.

[Hammy]

This year is looking like a repeat of 2007 (albeit with more storms) if you exclude the two majors we had in Dean and Felix; unfavorable conditions throughout and a spat of short-lived storms.

[gatorcane]

All this talk of no hurricanes is a bunch of hooey. Late season will be active based on analog years where the first hurricane formed late in the season. I see the Euro is building 500 mb ridging in the 7-10 day time frame over the SW Atlantic with the east coast trough retrograding west to the central GOM.

Noticed that on the ECMWF.

Yeah that is a pattern that is very conducive for CONUS threats.

Question will be whether there is some disturbance out there at this time?

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Low height fields over Gulf, Caribbean while major atlantic ridge builds almost always spells trouble there. Look at gulf system now

jb backs up what i have been saying for months. nw atlantic ridge=trouble in west carib/gom.

[CrazyC83]

This year is looking like a repeat of 2007 (albeit with more storms) if you exclude the two majors we had in Dean and Felix; unfavorable conditions throughout and a spat of short-lived storms.

That seems to be my thinking as well.

[Hurricaneman]

This could be one of those years where there may only be 1 major, but it could be one of those Caribbean monsters in October and make this season be put in the category of "it only takes 1"

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