ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[alienstorm]

The LLC (old) has opened up completely.

[Aric Dunn]

watch this are for convection to develop then a possible regeneration of the circ through the rest of today and overnight. There a couple signs already showing.

http://imageshack.us/a/img18/2193/h256.jpg

I agree with Aric that if this thing has a chance it will reform the center north of PR -- definitely far from a certainty at this point. I would perhaps even extend his red circle a bit further to the east for potential LLC reformation.

The MLC from Gabrielle and the system to her NE are finally "merging". I think Gabrielle's MLC started interacting with the vorticity of the NE disturbance, because it was clearly pulled a bit to the east. In the meantime, that NE disturbance has moved more to the NNE of Gabrielle (as opposed to yesterday when it was NE and the day before when it was ENE). Is this system rotating around Gabrielle? Or is it simply feeling more "pull" to the N from the ULL? Regardless, I believe this NE disturbance is winning out, and if it consolidates, I would suspect that 20N, 65W would be an area worth watching.

This situation is so complex! The old LLC from Gabrielle is now at the SE tip of Hispanola, and it's firing some very localized convection, so it's not 100% done yet. The old LLC seems to have jogged more the N in the past hour or so, and it looks like it's elongating N-S a little bit. It's going to brush the eastern tip of Hispanola, so there is certainly a chance it holds together and emerges on the N side of the island. I don't think it's likely that this will be a player, but it bears watching.

Yeah, The pulling northward of the old llc likely do to the lowering of pressure north of DR and PR do to the strong easterly flow from this morning and the weaker flow south of DR and PR .. also the small circ on its west side is party on the mountains and thus the flow on the east part through the mona passage has less resistance and thus it will take path of less resistance.. so if convection does develop north of the mona passage then the inflow from the south and the now veering (easterly flow ) to the ne and north .. north of DR( I noticed that happened led me to this scenario..) should transfer the vorticity there and a reformation could happen..

[AEWspotter]

At first glance, I didn't buy what you were selling about just north of the Mona Passage. But I'm warming up to that idea as I see convection building in the east of the old LLC (over Puerto Rico). If this convection extends to the N of Puerto Rico, then it could be in business.

[Aric Dunn]

At first glance, I didn't buy what you were selling about just north of the Mona Passage. But I'm warming up to that idea as I see convection building in the east of the old LLC (over Puerto Rico). If this convection extends to the N of Puerto Rico, then it could be in business.

yeah the veering low level flow north of central DR and the low level cloud deck thickening among everything else i mentioned lead me to the possible scenario

[wxman57]

Looks too weak to be classified as a TD now. I think NHC will downgrade it to a remnant low in a few hours. Possible regeneration in a day or two as it moves northward.

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

To my eyes the old LLC still looks closed enough, and about to run into Hispaniola. Lots of outflow boundaries and some confusing lower level cloud movement, but I can't see any reformation going on. I know every time a weak storm hits Hispaniola there is always a lot fo reformation chatter, and I know the models are showing something happening soon ... but ....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[trave2]

The LLC is off the east tip of D.R right now on clearly visible on imagery. The Mid circulation is drawn off to the east and a little north, over BVI. If the LLC stays intact it might have a chance tomorrow. The disturbance in the BOC look way better to me.

[wxman57]

One of the requirements at least for upgrade to a TD is organized convection around a well-defined center. In its current state, that low-level swirl would not qualify for an upgrade. Obs don't support winds much stronger than 10 kts anywhere near that weakening swirl. Time to look west for a bit toward the Gulf...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/imagery/avn0-lalo.jpg

Heavy convection is building just west of a vigorous mid-level spin and the upper levels right over this area have a nice expanding clockwise spin. I see the convection to the NE that has hindered this system since the beginning is waning and moving off to the NE. I think something regenerates soon right in the area around Puerto Rico.

[Hammy]

The LLC (old) has opened up completely.

There is still a fairly large area of northerly winds circling around the west side, so it is still closed at least for the time being.

[Sanibel]

Small center burst to opposite side of previous shear (SW).

[wxman57]

The LLC (old) has opened up completely.

There is still a fairly large area of northerly winds circling around the west side, so it is still closed at least for the time being.

I'm not seeing any large area of northerly winds in the surface obs. Winds in the eastern DR are out of the east at 15 kts. Easterly winds across NW PR, too. Swirl is dissipating.

[Aric Dunn]

The LLC (old) has opened up completely.

There is still a fairly large area of northerly winds circling around the west side, so it is still closed at least for the time being.

I'm not seeing any large area of northerly winds in the surface obs. Winds in the eastern DR are out of the east at 15 kts. Easterly winds across NW PR, too. Swirl is dissipating.

would not be too trusting of most of those surface obs out of DR especially do to local effects from mountains.. clear enough looking at visible the low level flow has turn northerly on the northern coast of DR

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013

...GABRIELLE BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 68.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

[HurriGuy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Overall velocity is really down too. Look at radar as well and there really is no counter-clockwise circulation anymore.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! Just 24hrs. ago we had an organizing TD on our hands, now we barely even have a TD! R.I.P. 2013 Atlantic STORM Season you won't be missed.

[MGC]

Gabrielle joins the ranks of other infamous Atlantic tropical cyclones. Move over Grace and Bertha, you have another candiate for queen joining your ranks.

Yep, Gabrielle turned into a dud. Maybe that mess to the NE of PR might do something eventually.
Wake me when the season is over and I can go Christmas shopping......MGC

[Riptide]

I do not see the demise of Gabrielle but I see a system that struggles for the rest of its life and never reaches its full potential. You cannot see the circulation on PR radar because it is out of range.

[Aric Dunn]

convection firing over the LLC and the llc being pulled north through the channel may miss DR all together... making a come back a little ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ninel conde]

the ULL se of bermuda looks better as it pulls in some of that moisture.