Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CrazyC83]

This could be one of those years where there may only be 1 major, but it could be one of those Caribbean monsters in October and make this season be put in the category of "it only takes 1"

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That is very true, although we might be able to squeeze 2 or 3 out. I wouldn't expect a major before October now, and perhaps not even a hurricane, although the subtropics might produce a low-end cane or two out of a dying front.

I do now believe that October will be the big month, with November perhaps the second biggest.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

All this talk of no hurricanes is a bunch of hooey. Late season will be active based on analog years where the first hurricane formed late in the season. I see the Euro is building 500 mb ridging in the 7-10 day time frame over the SW Atlantic with the east coast trough retrograding west to the central GOM.

There is absolutely know way of knowing that. This season was forecasted to be very active with a high potential of numerous landfalls, and look how that has turned out. Even the experts now are talking major busts, which is very commendable of them to admit.

As far as the euro showing building ridge in 7-10 days I saw the 180hr gfs and it showed another east coast trough dropping down with a big break in the high and moving east.

I hope there are no hurricanes and every record that can be broken, is.

[CrazyC83]

All this talk of no hurricanes is a bunch of hooey. Late season will be active based on analog years where the first hurricane formed late in the season. I see the Euro is building 500 mb ridging in the 7-10 day time frame over the SW Atlantic with the east coast trough retrograding west to the central GOM.

There is absolutely know way of knowing that. This season was forecasted to be very active with a high potential of numerous landfalls, and look how that has turned out. Even the experts now are talking major busts, which is very commendable of them to admit.

As far as the euro showing building ridge in 7-10 days I saw the 180hr gfs and it showed another east coast trough dropping down with a big break in the high and moving east.

I hope there are no hurricanes and every record that can be broken, is.

To break the ultimate record, we would need a 0/0/0 season.

[ninel conde]

All this talk of no hurricanes is a bunch of hooey. Late season will be active based on analog years where the first hurricane formed late in the season. I see the Euro is building 500 mb ridging in the 7-10 day time frame over the SW Atlantic with the east coast trough retrograding west to the central GOM.

There is absolutely know way of knowing that. This season was forecasted to be very active with a high potential of numerous landfalls, and look how that has turned out. Even the experts now are talking major busts, which is very commendable of them to admit.

As far as the euro showing building ridge in 7-10 days I saw the 180hr gfs and it showed another east coast trough dropping down with a big break in the high and moving east.

I hope there are no hurricanes and every record that can be broken, is.

To break the ultimate record, we would need a 0/0/0 season.

but 9/0/0 would be really super cool. i hope humby forms tomorrow just before landfall in mexico.

[ninel conde]

All this talk of no hurricanes is a bunch of hooey. Late season will be active based on analog years where the first hurricane formed late in the season. I see the Euro is building 500 mb ridging in the 7-10 day time frame over the SW Atlantic with the east coast trough retrograding west to the central GOM.

There is absolutely know way of knowing that. This season was forecasted to be very active with a high potential of numerous landfalls, and look how that has turned out. Even the experts now are talking major busts, which is very commendable of them to admit.

As far as the euro showing building ridge in 7-10 days I saw the 180hr gfs and it showed another east coast trough dropping down with a big break in the high and moving east.

I hope there are no hurricanes and every record that can be broken, is.

trof city on gfs.

[Ntxw]

I want a new latest record, we're so close it would be wasteful not to get it. As for later September and October there's no way to tell. We can take hints as to how things may pan out, currently the MJO is as favorable as can be for the Atlantic (Phase 1) during the heart of hurricane season. What you see out there is what you're going to get.

Models are trending the MJO to the Pacific in a few weeks, based on that and how genesis is struggling across the globe I would think a very active second half will be hindered, doesn't mean it won't happen but there is really little atmospheric support to believe it will. Right now through the next week/week and half is about as great as conditions you can possibly set for the Atlantic at the perfect time in terms of signals lining up, if nothing big comes of it there is a greater power at work.

[Ptarmigan]

Not entirely true. The Saharan Air Layer impacts the very lowest few thousand feet, not the 400mb level. And that's not Saharan Air all the way over in the West Pac or Indian Ocean.

I wonder where all that dry air comes from.

[Ptarmigan]

To break the ultimate record, we would need a 0/0/0 season.

That has never happened and will not happen for 2013.

[CrazyC83]

To break the ultimate record, we would need a 0/0/0 season.

That has never happened and will not happen for 2013.

It's virtually impossible, would require an epic surge of shear and dry air, likely in a record El Nino with cool waters and high pressures.

[Ptarmigan]

It's virtually impossible, would require an epic surge of shear and dry air, likely in a record El Nino with cool waters and high pressures.

If there was a record El Nino, Pacific would be very active. Think 1982 or 1997.

[TheStormExpert]

Tweet from Local NWS Office in Miami, FL:

@NWSMiami: 2001: 1st Atlantic #hurricane Erin on 9/9, but saw 9 hurricanes, including 4 majors! Way too early to write this season off! #flwx
(9/5/13 @7:21pm)

I seriously don't care what some of the statistics may say on similar seasons with the same situation, I got a gut feeling that this season is just going to be as worthless and pathetic from here on out just like it has been so far. Forecasters and meteorologists IMO should be looking into why this season is behaving the way it is and stop saying there is still a chance it could end up as active as predicted, cause so far it's not looking like that is going to happen and it would be a miracle if it does, especially for some of us who like to track actual well organized storms. This season will most likely be one of those seasons that forecasters that make predictions will need to research into to discover why even though there were several strong factors pointing towards an possibly active season, there still must have been a thing or two missing that led to these pathetic short lived storms.

[hurricaneCW]

Anything is still possible, you could still have a monster hurricane late in the season or we could end the season with barely a hurricane. Clearly the massive amount of dry air and wind shear present throughout the entire northern hemisphere has subdued the tropics in every single basin.

So what caused that to happen. I assume the global warming fanatics will be out and about as predictions were of quieter hurricane seasons in the future due to more wind shear and dry air.

Of course if that's correct, it almost means we could one or two very powerful hurricanes develop as there would be less weaker storms but more concentrated powerful ones.

[CrazyC83]

Tweet from Local NWS Office in Miami, FL:

@NWSMiami: 2001: 1st Atlantic #hurricane Erin on 9/9, but saw 9 hurricanes, including 4 majors! Way too early to write this season off! #flwx
(9/5/13 @7:21pm)

I seriously don't care what some of the statistics may say on similar seasons with the same situation, I got a gut feeling that this season is just going to be as worthless and pathetic from here on out just like it has been so far. Forecasters and meteorologists IMO should be looking into why this season is behaving the way it is and stop saying there is still a chance it could end up as active as predicted, cause so far it's not looking like that is going to happen and it would be a miracle if it does for some of us who like to track actual well organized storms.

There's no evidence of a pattern change. As long as the shear is off the charts and dry air pumps in, the MDR will remain a total graveyard. We'd need an epic October to catch up.

[TheStormExpert]

Anything is still possible, you could still have a monster hurricane late in the season or we could end the season with barely a hurricane. Clearly the massive amount of dry air and wind shear present throughout the entire northern hemisphere has subdued the tropics in every single basin.

So what caused that to happen. I assume the global warming fanatics will be out and about as predictions were of quieter hurricane seasons in the future due to more wind shear and dry air.

Of course if that's correct, it almost means we could one or two very powerful hurricanes develop as there would be less weaker storms but more concentrated powerful ones.

I'm going with your second option of barely getting a hurricane.

And if we start getting less storms overall each season but more concentrated powerful ones, that would be saying that we are probably leaving the active era we've been in since 1995.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Tweet from Local NWS Office in Miami, FL:

@NWSMiami: 2001: 1st Atlantic #hurricane Erin on 9/9, but saw 9 hurricanes, including 4 majors! Way too early to write this season off! #flwx
(9/5/13 @7:21pm)

I seriously don't care what some of the statistics may say on similar seasons with the same situation, I got a gut feeling that this season is just going to be as worthless and pathetic from here on out just like it has been so far. Forecasters and meteorologists IMO should be looking into why this season is behaving the way it is and stop saying there is still a chance it could end up as active as predicted, cause so far it's not looking like that is going to happen and it would be a miracle if it does, especially for some of us who like to track actual well organized storms. This season will most likely be one of those seasons that forecasters that make predictions will need to research into to discover why even though there were several strong factors pointing towards an possibly active season, there still must have been a thing or two missing that led to these pathetic short lived storms.

So instead of manning up and admitting the forecast very well could be a massive bust like Phil klotzbach did, which I greatly commend him for doing, they have to go all the way back to '01 to make a case for not writing the season off.

[Bocadude85]

Tweet from Local NWS Office in Miami, FL:

@NWSMiami: 2001: 1st Atlantic #hurricane Erin on 9/9, but saw 9 hurricanes, including 4 majors! Way too early to write this season off! #flwx
(9/5/13 @7:21pm)

I seriously don't care what some of the statistics may say on similar seasons with the same situation, I got a gut feeling that this season is just going to be as worthless and pathetic from here on out just like it has been so far. Forecasters and meteorologists IMO should be looking into why this season is behaving the way it is and stop saying there is still a chance it could end up as active as predicted, cause so far it's not looking like that is going to happen and it would be a miracle if it does, especially for some of us who like to track actual well organized storms. This season will most likely be one of those seasons that forecasters that make predictions will need to research into to discover why even though there were several strong factors pointing towards an possibly active season, there still must have been a thing or two missing that led to these pathetic short lived storms.

So instead of manning up and admitting the forecast very well could be a massive bust like Phil klotzbach did, which I greatly commend him for doing, they have to go all the way back to '01 to make a case for not writing the season off.

Why would they write the season off when we still have almost three months until the end of the season? South Florida has been hit by more hurricanes in the month of October then any other month.

[galaxy401]

Tweet from Local NWS Office in Miami, FL:

@NWSMiami: 2001: 1st Atlantic #hurricane Erin on 9/9, but saw 9 hurricanes, including 4 majors! Way too early to write this season off! #flwx
(9/5/13 @7:21pm)

I seriously don't care what some of the statistics may say on similar seasons with the same situation, I got a gut feeling that this season is just going to be as worthless and pathetic from here on out just like it has been so far. Forecasters and meteorologists IMO should be looking into why this season is behaving the way it is and stop saying there is still a chance it could end up as active as predicted, cause so far it's not looking like that is going to happen and it would be a miracle if it does, especially for some of us who like to track actual well organized storms. This season will most likely be one of those seasons that forecasters that make predictions will need to research into to discover why even though there were several strong factors pointing towards an possibly active season, there still must have been a thing or two missing that led to these pathetic short lived storms.

So instead of manning up and admitting the forecast very well could be a massive bust like Phil klotzbach did, which I greatly commend him for doing, they have to go all the way back to '01 to make a case for not writing the season off.

NEVER write a season off until it's actually over.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

First you have to have conditions favorable to develop and sustain a hurricane. Second you have to have a hurricane out there.

Anyway I was referring more about the overall numbers as they were obivoulsy referring to as well.

[CrazyC83]

I think the key to removing the persistent shear is to get troughs lower in latitude and the air moving down there. When do troughs tend to start reaching low latitudes (i.e. around 20N or lower)?

[SoupBone]

I do now believe that October will be the big month, with November perhaps the second biggest.

This has been the theme all season so far. Wait another 2 weeks, wait another 2 weeks, the lid is coming off, etc. Soon we'll be told to wait until December 25th! That Category 5 Snowicane is headed for the Gulf Coast!