ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

6 days till the peak

[ninel conde]

Look at this 850mb vorticity. I have never seen such an elongated mess. I give up. My thoughts on this system are captured in the image below.

http://imageshack.us/a/img836/2677/i58m.jpg

http://imageshack.us/a/img209/6945/pyz9.jpg

WTH? how did you get a picture of me thinking about this miserable cane season?

[Dean4Storms]

Boom..... Convection firing over and around the old LLC or area of lowest pressure just off the NE Coast of DR and the MLC is just off to the east, much closer to being stacked once again. I think Gabrielle remnants make a come back this afternoon!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like just north of the mona passage its trying to make a come back.

[NDG]

Give it up Aric, it really does not have much support from the GFS and Euro for a comeback.

This season is pretty much over, lol.

[Aric Dunn]

Give it up Aric, it really does not have much support from the GFS and Euro for a comeback.

This season is pretty much over, lol.

lol, never say never in the tropics

[caneman]

I agree needs to be watched. In such a weird season I don't trust any of the models. Question is - if it does re-develop does it head out to sea. What happened to the high or er.. so called wheel that was suppose to come into play?

[NDG]

Give it up Aric, it really does not have much support from the GFS and Euro for a comeback.

This season is pretty much over, lol.

lol, never say never in the tropics

I agree, I never say never, but at the same time I have to be realistic.

[blp]

Low level vorticity is back to being strong now very close to the blow-up and convergence is also strong. This back and forth is crazy.

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/5409/jrr.gif

[wxman57]

Checking surface obs, there is nothing left of any LLC. Pressures are generally higher than normal in the area (1014-1015mb). Another low center could form in the next few days. There's a chance that if it did it would not become Gabrielle again.

[Sanibel]

From the looks of it it will make a weak burst in the shadow of Hispaniola and then get chopped by shear as it pulls away.

To me it looks like there was enough convection with Gabrielle that there's still a good hurricane waiting with the energy there in that latent potential or whatever you call it.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track for remnants.

AL, 07, 2013090612, , BEST, 0, 201N, 681W, 20, 1010, DB

[Dean4Storms]

Checking surface obs, there is nothing left of any LLC. Pressures are generally higher than normal in the area (1014-1015mb). Another low center could form in the next few days. There's a chance that if it did it would not become Gabrielle again.

I disagree, there is a low near 20N 68W moving northward. You can see low level clouds to the west of the convective mass streaming eastward toward it over eastern DR. It's not a massive low but it is there.

You can see it here, speed up and zoom in. It is weak, but there none the less. With convection now repeatedly firing over it I can only suspect it deepens some.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-vis-long.html

[tolakram]

It's interesting that shear has dropped a little over this.



Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[cycloneye]

Is also interesting that the they plan to fly Air Force, Global Hawk,P3'S and the GIV on Saturday.

[Aric Dunn]

and that the GFS although loses the the thing the vorticity heads in NC ... on the 12z

[Dean4Storms]

and that the GFS although loses the the thing the vorticity heads in NC ... on the 12z

On top of that the GFS has missed TC Genesis on a couple of small lows like this already this year.

[gatorcane]

and that the GFS although loses the the thing the vorticity heads in NC ... on the 12z

Yep noticed that. There looks to be a nice ridge that builds in behind the current trough by about 3-4 days from now. If Gabrielle's remants meander around without getting ejected to the North and NE by the current trough as the models have been wanting to do for several days now (my thinking the whole time is that the models are too fast with the ejection and the remnants may not even get completely ejected), will need to watch if something gets going and tries to get under that ridge. It does look like the ridge only lasts a few days as another short wave moves offshore the Eastern United States by days 7-8, but there may be a window in there something can sneak through. The chances are low but I would not say no chance at this point.

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[alienstorm]

Recon flying into the remnants this afternoon interesting

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.