ATL: EIGHT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Special Advisory at 1 pm CDT or so

CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

4. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN

[galaxy401]

Wow that just came out of nowhere!

[jaguarjace]

Lost for words

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992013_al082013.ren
FSTDA
R
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040
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201309061729
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 08, 2013, DB, O, 2013090506, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL082013
AL, 08, 2013090406, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2013090412, , BEST, 0, 212N, 926W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 214N, 934W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 215N, 940W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2013090506, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 08, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 218N, 944W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2013090518, , BEST, 0, 224N, 953W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 160, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2013090600, , BEST, 0, 226N, 964W, 30, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 160, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2013090606, , BEST, 0, 226N, 970W, 30, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 160, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2013090612, , BEST, 0, 225N, 973W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 160, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[ROCK]

wow it made it....I thought for sure it was inland....we need another name off the list....

[supercane4867]

I'm glad this thing is already heading onshore so don't have to trash another good name on it

[tropicwatch]

Boy the tropics sure are being difficult

[tailgater]

Wasn't the NAM showing something like this occuring? Then drifting northward, to the delight of Texans.

[CrazyC83]

Could it just slide over water and just move up the northwestern Gulf?

[wxman57]

It's clear that it has been at least a TD for 6 hours or so. NHC figured it was going to continue moving inland so they didn't initiate advisories this morning. Now that it's hanging around the coast near Tampico they're going to issue an advisory. Final advisory could be this evening, or possibly another to say it has dissipated early tomorrow morning. Hope it becomes Humberto to boost my chances in the hurricane pool.

[AEWspotter]

How are they diagnosing the LLC? Surface obs along the Mexican coast?

[SeGaBob]

I don't think this system will stay offshore long enough to waste a name unless it drifts over water longer than expected... but then again we didn't think it would form to begin with.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

How are they diagnosing the LLC? Surface obs along the Mexican coast?

Yeah, it's pretty clear from Tampico's observations. Center is wobbling around almost right over Tampico.

[Florida1118]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO... ...CENTER MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS TIME...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013
130 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVED MORE
SLOWLY THAN ORIGINALLY PREDICTED...AND THIS ALLOWED MORE TIME FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ORGANIZED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO.
WITH THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTED TODAY...THE SYSTEM IS
NOW CLASSIFYABLE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NO ADDITONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING INLAND NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. FROM THIS TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/5. A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TMAMULIPAS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1830Z 22.3N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.1N 98.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 21.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[AEWspotter]

Link to a radar site? All the sites I found said the radar is down for maintenance.

I did see a 9mph wind out of the N from Weather Underground...

[tailgater]

How are they diagnosing the LLC? Surface obs along the Mexican coast?

Yeah, it's pretty clear from Tampico's observations. Center is wobbling around almost right over Tampico.

Radar is out, but I don't see how this could stay offshore more than a couple more hours.

[Extratropical94]

Most likely the shortest-lived system in 2013 but you never know what else is gonna happen in the second half of this season.

[thetruesms]

Initiating advisories on this thing once I finally give up on it in my briefings, as it's making landfall? You're killing me, NHC, just killing me!

[supercane4867]

Most likely the shortest-lived system in 2013 but you never know what else is gonna happen in the second half of this season.

Perhaps one of the shortest-lived tropical cyclone on record

[CrazyC83]

The BT will likely have it as a tropical cyclone much earlier though, probably 0600Z or earlier.

[ROCK]

I could sure use the NHC naming this albeit just for a few hours. I need to at least pad my preseason numbers some. I have been taking a beating on my 19/8/4 with a ACE of 125 this year....