Wave emerging Africa: (Is Invest 91L)

[Hyperstorm]

pic?????

This is the system that we will be talking about for days to come...



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It already has an excellent outflow pattern and its broad circulation is already feeding from the ITCZ.

[hurricanes1234]

And in addition to its excellent outflow, it is expected to be a fish? Or maybe a major fish (>110 mph)....

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Fish entails a forecast of not hitting anyone. Not a big fan of the fish term, but that's just a personal opinion.

It's suppose to recurve, at least that's what the models are showing right now.

[ROCK]

all globals like it....so development is likely IMO...dont think it will get to far west before heading out....thats what the EURO thinks anyway....

[hurricanes1234]

This is interesting. Already looks impressive on satellite imagery. Does anyone think it would be hindered by moving over water? I've read that tropical waves can lose their convection quickly, once they hit the eastern Atlantic waters.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meteorcane]

Let's see if we can survive splashdown, we have seen numerous strong waves come of the Coast, only to lose their convection when they enter the Atlantic (which is sad considering we are nearing climatological peak). What does theshear forecast look like in the eastern MDR? I assume since we are out of the peak Dust season, dry/stable air should not be a major inhibiting factor.

[galaxy401]

Latest SAL graph doesn't show any dry air off Africa. Not sure about mid level though. This wave looks impressive. I want to see a long track powerful storm (not affecting land of course!)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's the latest Mid-Level Water Vapor.

[TheStormExpert]

Also here's the latest Wind Shear Tendency map.

[Hammy]

GFS dropped hurricane intensity yet again.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%-70%

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

SAL not a big issue, but shear definitely is.

As soon as they colored it yellow, I can see it becoming 90L or 91L soon.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Sep 6, 2013 6:05 pm ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Based on what models are predicting, the NHC is giving a disturbance now coming off of Africa a high probability of becoming at least a tropical depression or storm, and some model runs are even trying to crank that one up into a hurricane (which they've tried to do with others previously - maybe one of these will actually become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season), but model forecasts don't track it within 1500 miles of Bermuda or Barbados, much less North America.

[cycloneye]

SAL not a big issue, but shear definitely is.

As soon as they colored it yellow, I can see it becoming 90L or 91L soon.

It will be 91L as 90L was used for a few minutes on Sunday for the wave that was 98L that was deactivated on Tuesday but they rapidly reactivated 98L and deactivated 90L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309051227
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013090512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 138N, 314W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0

[hurricanes1234]

GFS dropped hurricane intensity again? I would give this a 40% chance of it dropping hurricane strength for good. Because in my opinion, I think wind shear is an even bigger problem than dry air. What are your thoughts?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Development chances certainly high for this invest which is just about ready to move off the African continent. Will it become our first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic season? Certainly looks like it will make a run for it...very nice moisture envelope for this wave, and a big burst of convection should help it get going:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

Development chances certainly high for this invest which is just about ready to move off the African continent. Will it become our first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic season? Certainly looks like it will make a run for it...very nice moisture envelope for this wave, and a big burst of convection should help it get going:

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/1623/u0r9.jpg

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why not Gatorcane...?! things should take off a bit now as we're in the peak now
Given your analysis, what elements could hindering the development of this twave, if any? Your thoughts are as usual welcomed . What could we do if Gatorcane was not on this board often?

[wxman57]

The same thing could hinder development that's prevented other systems from taking off out there. It could well be mid-level dry air, which appears to be a problem all across the Northern Hemisphere.

[HURAKAN]

I'll believe the models when I see it. My level of enthusiasm is at an all-time low at this point!!

[Gustywind]

The same thing could hinder development that's prevented other systems from taking off out there. It could well be mid-level dry air, which appears to be a problem all across the Northern Hemisphere.

Thanks wxman57. Ah mid- level dry air ok! Yes, seems persistent this season. And what about the shear? Winds are favorable to sustain a cyclonic feature during it whole trip? What do think about this criteria?