When will be our first major hurricane 2013?

[hurricanes1234]

I'm thinking Humberto. Why? Some models say so.

Some models also said that Juliette would peak as a major hurricane, however, it peaked as a 50 mph storm. I think beyond a certain time frame, any storms forecasted by the models are less likely to be what they're forecasted as.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lilybeth]

I think it will be in September, in the next two weeks, so in the first half of the month. Gabrielle, maybe? Just a guess.

[Alyono]

unless we see a MAJOR pattern change, there is not going to be one.

I suspect something needs to change on a global scale

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.


Is Atlantic Hurricane Void Going to Last? By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
August 30, 2013; 5:19 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... t/17238334

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season will go down in the books as being free of hurricanes through August. However, data suggests that interests in the basin may not be so fortunate through November.

According to Meteorologist Adrienne Green, "Since 1960, there have been five years when there were no hurricanes through August."

The years were 1967, 1984, 1988, 2001 and 2002.

"During each of those years, multiple hurricanes followed spanning September through October," Green said.

The average number of hurricanes during the five years (5.8) is close to the average number of hurricane during all years (5.9).
An average of about nine named systems with about six hurricanes occurred following August during those five years. Since the start of September, the 2001 season brought nine hurricanes, while 2002 brought four hurricanes.

While there is no 100-percent guarantee any hurricanes will form for the balance of the season, the odds are greatly in favor of multiple hurricanes through November with some of these likely during September.

Based on past data, there will be multiple major hurricanes and direct impact on land by named systems are likely moving forward this season.

Each of these five years without August hurricanes delivered deadly and damaging hurricanes later in the season ranging from the Caribbean islands to Central America, Mexico, the United States and Canada.

These include:

1967 - September Hurricane Beulah - Category 5 - 688 fatalities - $1 billion in damage


1984 - September Hurricane Diana - Category 4 - 3 fatalities - $65.5 million in damage


1988 - September Hurricane Gilbert - Category 4 - 550 fatalities - $7 billion in damage


2001 - October Hurricane Iris - Category 4 - 36 fatalities - $250 million in damage


2001 - November Hurricane Michelle - Category 4 - 22 fatalities - $2 billion in damage


2002 - September Hurricane Isidore - Category 3 - 19 fatalities - $1.3 billion in damage


2002 - September Hurricane Lili - Category 4 - 13 fatalities - $925 million in damage

The 1984 and 2001 seasons brought named systems lingering into December. The 2002 season ended early, during mid-October.

A lack of strong systems in the tropics to date this season means there is a great deal of potential heat energy that is locked up over the basin. This energy is likely to be released and transported northward in the form of hurricanes during the months ahead.

There does not have to be a major hurricane making direct landfall to bring great risk to lives and property. Dangerous and damaging effects from a storm passing near an area or diminishing while moving inland can bring tremendous flooding, for example.
Despite the lack of hurricanes through August this season, people should not let their guard down.

[ninel conde]

what would do it would be ridge/trof/ridge instead of trof/ridge/trof.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

unless we see a MAJOR pattern change, there is not going to be one.

I suspect something needs to change on a global scale

Starting to believe that myself. Will still give it til third week of September before giving up all hope. Maybe just maybe things might improve out there for a short two-three week period and able to squeeze out one.

Noticed though models starting to already give up on 96 so not looking to promising.

[hurricanes1234]

Yes, activity globally has been quiet. Even the western Pacific is feeling the effects of this. I think our first major hurricane would be in late September or the rest of October.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Seeing that we're into September without a single major hurricane, is anybody revising their forecasts for when the first major hurricane would be? Feel free to post it here!

[TheStormExpert]

Even my revised forecast of 13/5/2 will most likely have to be revised again.

[Hurricaneman]

I think there will be 1 in the Caribbean in October and it wouldn't be a surprise if it landfalls as a major IMHO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SFLcane]

I think there will be 1 in the Caribbean in October and it wouldn't be a surprise if it landfalls as a major IMHO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

+1...

The favorable conditions in the GulfMex/Bay of Campeche will gradually shift eastward into the Caribbean Sea. Season is far from over

[TheStormExpert]

I'm just focusing on when we could possibly see our first hurricane for right now. Once that happens and conditions look favorable to some extent to support at least a minimal major hurricane, then I think about it more. Until then this season is just boring me.

[gatorcane]

The system rolling of Africa now in the far eastern Atlantic has a good shot of becoming a hurricane (probably not MAJOR though) in about 4-5 days from now.

[tolakram]

I'm going to say 10 days or less.

[beoumont]

Sept. 8, 2014

[Cyclenall]

Sept. 8, 2014

[SFLcane]

Late sept or early oct NW caribbean sea.

[weathernerdguy]

the first hurricane will form in the year of 99999999999999999 on september 30th

['CaneFreak]

Humberto on Sept 12, 2013

[Hurricane_Luis]

If it RI's, I think Humberto has a good shot at becoming a major.
But then again the models said Juliette would be a Category 3 storm, instead we got a 50 mph TS.