Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

More analysis at hyperlink below by the experts Dr Jeff Masters and Phil Klotzbach. What Dr Masters mentions about the Brazil factor is interesting.

The experts discuss about why the 2013 Atlantic season is a record breaking dud one

From article plenty of season still ahead..

Dennis Feltgen cautioned it was still too early to write off 2013 as a year when tropical weather was unpredictable.

"We are at mid-point of the six-month hurricane season," he said. "It is a mistake to believe that the second half of the season would resemble the first half," he said. The first hurricane in 2001, Erin, only formed on Sept. 9, Feltgen said. "That season ended with 15 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes."

[hurricaneCW]

It is too early to completely write it off, the gfs is now frequently showing Caribbean activity in the long range, which makes a lot of sense as we go deeper into the season.

[WeatherGuesser]

I remind folks that the latter half of sept through October is historically the most dangerous time for the Florida peninsula ....

Think of the way FL's population has changed in recent years and the millions of people that live there now that have never experienced any Hurricane, let alone a major one.

[ConvergenceZone]

From article plenty of season still ahead..

Dennis Feltgen cautioned it was still too early to write off 2013 as a year when tropical weather was unpredictable.

"We are at mid-point of the six-month hurricane season," he said. "It is a mistake to believe that the second half of the season would resemble the first half," he said. The first hurricane in 2001, Erin, only formed on Sept. 9, Feltgen said. "That season ended with 15 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes."

True, you can't write off 2013 as being "over", but In my Own Opinion, you can write off 2013 as being a busy year............2001 could have had better conditions overall though, which is why it perhaps ended up being fairly active...Sometimes when it's not active, you can look at the overall patterns and you can just tell that it's going to explode anytime now..... 2013 doesn't seem to be such a year. Heck even Invests are having a difficult time developing further..... It's okay though because I'm sure we will have plenty of extreme seasons to track in the future......So it is good if the USA and other land areas is given a break this year. We can use it!....

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm not ruling out the season just yet. Sandy came from the Caribbean and ended up snatching New Jersey's wig.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not ruling out the season just yet. Sandy came from the Caribbean and ended up snatching New Jersey's wig.

Yep, I agree! There still might be something developing in late September or early October. we definitely don't want to call "season cancel" yet......

[Hurricane_Luis]

October 8th. I think there will be a Hurricane by then.

The all-time record was set in 1905, he said, when the first hurricane materialized on Oct. 8.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/weather-hurricanes-idUSL2N0H21LR20130907

[WeatherGuesser]

Oy!

Reuters and USA Today have picked up on the "D" word.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idINBRE9860AY20130907

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/09/07/quiet-hurricane-season/2776845/

[Hammy]

Very dangerous for the media to put this out there to the general public, with half the season still to go. All it does is lead people to let their guard down. As its pointed out it only takes one storm.

[gatorcane]

New Video posted by Levi Cowan. He says the area to watch for possible landfalling systems is Gulf/Caribbean/SW Atlantic area:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T8sy_NRVnls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Very dangerous for the media to put this out there to the general public, with half the season still to go. All it does is lead people to let their guard down. As its pointed out it only takes one storm.

No different than the media to overhype the season with all the doom and gloom talk.

And still find it ridiculous how some keep going back all the way to 2001 to make a case to say the season could still catch fire and be extremely busy. First conditions were obvioulsy totally different then they are now and second there is just no way of knowing if things will eventually turn on. Or they could just as easily stay the same as they have all summer or worse. The fronts and troughs are only going to keep getting stronger and more frequent.

[Steve]

Heading to the peak, it appears that we should beat long term average in number of named storms. We would need only 5, and that well could happen by the end of the month or early October. While some late season hurricanes should form, I don't think we will get to 7 or 8. I also think ACE will surge, though I don't think it will approach numbers in the mid 100s that some called for. Only way that happens now is with a couple of weeks worth of ACE hogging energy (highly highly unlikely).

Everything remains in place for a continuation of this multiple impact season. Hopefully most of the remaining impacts will be more in line with what we have seen so far in the islands, Florida and Mexico, that is rain events rather than any widespread destruction. No way am I backing off yet on my target zones. TX/MX should see at least one more impact. And I'm still concerned about multiple shots to the eastern gulf over to the SE US Coast (MS-NC including the Bahamas). I'm almost positive enough to bet money on it the way we are transitioning to the end of summer. Sure, you need systems on the playing field first, but outside a couple of recurves along the way, energy should mostly be directed to the western basin. I think Bermuda and eastern Canada will remain in play also. Take it fwiw.

This post is not official.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

Oy!

Reuters and USA Today have picked up on the "D" word.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idINBRE9860AY20130907

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/09/07/quiet-hurricane-season/2776845/

For the USA Today one, the last 3 paragraphs were kind of silly or strange:

"We are only at the midpoint of the six-month hurricane season, and have just entered the peak of the hurricane season (mid-August through late October)," Feltgen warns. "It is a mistake to believe that the second half of the season would resemble the first half."

So after under-hyping the season in the title, this is added? The whole season is a dud yet we all need to be alert?

"Hurricane formation in the Atlantic is overdue and is soon likely to shift in favor of multiple tropical systems," says Kottlowski.

No science to be found here. So we're overdue huh? Soon likely to shift in favor of multiple tropical systems? Nope. That's what was said in mid-August. Horrible.

As of late Friday afternoon, the hurricane center was monitoring three separate tropical disturbances in the Atlantic. However, none is forecast to develop into a hurricane.

Well the one off Africa is borderline but hopefully it fails quick.

And still find it ridiculous how some keep going back all the way to 2001 to make a case to say the season could still catch fire and be extremely busy. First conditions were obvioulsy totally different then they are now and second there is just no way of knowing if things will eventually turn on. Or they could just as easily stay the same as they have all summer or worse. The fronts and troughs are only going to keep getting stronger and more frequent.

I read this somewhere else in here and I agree, this is true. When the forecast goes wrong, they jump to the next possible extreme outcome. They must believe in equilibrium hardcore here .

[galaxy401]

"We are only at the midpoint of the six-month hurricane season, and have just entered the peak of the hurricane season (mid-August through late October)," Feltgen warns. "It is a mistake to believe that the second half of the season would resemble the first half."

So after under-hyping the season in the title, this is added? The whole season is a dud yet we all need to be alert?

Got to remember that late season storms can be surprising like Sandy last year. Can't say the whole season is a dud if we're only half way through. I'm not saying that there will be a late season surprise but we can't write it off either.

[Ntxw]

A little comparison to how ACE compares, the combined value of all 7 named systems is roughly equivalent to ACE output of Ernesto of last year.

[blp]

New Video posted by Levi Cowan. He says the area to watch for possible landfalling systems is Gulf/Caribbean/SW Atlantic area:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T8sy_NRVnls

Great video. I totally agree the setup is dangerous. Look at the TCHP that is building each day.

[Hurricaneman]

New Video posted by Levi Cowan. He says the area to watch for possible landfalling systems is Gulf/Caribbean/SW Atlantic area:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T8sy_NRVnls

Great video. I totally agree the setup is dangerous. Look at the TCHP that is building each day.

If something were to form in the NW Caribbean that storm would probably be one for the ages if things come together

[SFLcane]

Alot of the GFS ensembles have something heading north out of the caribbean. As wxman57 stated everything across the central/eastern atl has very little chance at making the trek. Look close to home.

[LaBreeze]

New Video posted by Levi Cowan. He says the area to watch for possible landfalling systems is Gulf/Caribbean/SW Atlantic area:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T8sy_NRVnls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Interesting take in the video by Levi. It just seems like it's a long "wait and see" situation. True, that the GOM is primed and staying unstable it seems.

[ninel conde]

great tweet from JB today. right now on sept08 there isnt a single tropical storm anywhere on earth. tropics are truly dead.