ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Wave emerging Africa.

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invest_al912013.invest
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201309071650
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013090712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 131N, 159W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this African area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115599&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[ROCK]

great model support for this one....might be our first cane of the season! I am excited about it...

[galaxy401]

IMO, this wave will affect how we feel about this season. Could be a powerful hurricane or this will bust.

[TheStormExpert]

IMO, this wave will affect how we feel about this season. Could be a powerful hurricane or this will bust.

If this does become our first hurricane I don't expect it to become more than a upper-end Cat.1 or lower-end Cat.2 at best.

[SFLcane]

Good chance at likely becoming our first hurricane but highly unlikely to impact anyone other then the capeverdes.

[Alyono]

Cape Verdes are not used to significant TCs... could cause probs there

[pgoss11]

I'm hopeful this one will be our first cane of the season! Unlikely to affect anyone but please for the love of God can I see a beautiful cane spinning out in the Atlantic this year!

[jaguarjace]

Floater is up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/91L_floater.html

[Florida1118]

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.

[gatorcane]

I certainly think this system has a decent chance of becoming our first hurricane of 2013. Hopefully this invest won't cause too much of an issue for the Cape Verde Islands. Once it gets past there, hopefully it will become a hurricane and we can track it knowing it likely won't impact anybody.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Mid-level dry air should not be an issue for several days:

700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 80 79 79 74 74 70 69 68 66 66

Little shear:

SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 7 9 9 5 7 4 4 8 5

SSTs don't begin to go unfavorable until day 5:

SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1

Though vertical instability is a little below average (should limit the intensity of convection):

TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6

No reason to suggest this won't become a hurricane other than the fact that it's 2013.

[Hammy]

So many other systems have had model support and organization and gone poof, and this one like the rest is already losing convection as it comes off. Personally at this point I won't believe any individual wave will become anything more than a Dorian/Erin repeat until I actually see it.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 135N, 170W, 20, 1006, DB

[TheStormExpert]

Here's the latest instability as of today for the Tropical Atlantic, which once again is starting to go below normal.

[weathernerdguy]

Um..... will this truly become a hurricane.?

[CrazyC83]

I'm still skeptical given the shear map...any signs that it is really relaxing?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm still skeptical given the shear map...any signs that it is really relaxing?

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        10     6     5     7     6     9     7     6     5     8     2     5     3

[RL3AO]

The models, especially the statistical ones, have a habit of developing systems too quickly. I highly doubt Cape Verde will get a cat 2 hurricane, but they could get an intensifying tropical storm.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

If anything it would become a hurricane right after passing the Cape Verde islands but even that seems too quick IMO.

[WeatherGuesser]

30/80, but whatever it does, I hope it waits until after the 11th.