cat 5 at 10pm ????? What do you think

[wrkh99]

Looks very impressive on the last couple of frames

[wxman57]

I'd say that an official upgrade to Cat 5 would not come without either a direct observation at the surface or via recon. Just can't imagine the NHC going Cat 5 without recon to verify. They'd want to be darn sure before doing such a thing. Recon is scheduled for Friday at 18Z.

[hurricanedude]

I agree..... may go to 145 or 150.....though

[WXBUFFJIM]

145-150 sounds good at 11 PM. That's potential.

Jim

[deb_in_nc]

I'm with Jim and HD. I think no more than 145.

Debbie

[cycloneye]

Mantains 140 mph at 11 PM.

[Valkhorn]

I guarantee that if they got a T reading of 7 to 7.5 or higher they would classify it as a Category 5.

By Friday it may be much weaker than it is now, say 125-135mph.

I think they should make a flight into it tomorrow but I'm not running the show.

They flew into Hurricane Juliette 36 hours too late as well. It was close to if not AT category 5 status and they were conservative with it and never bumped it higher than 145mph.

HOWEVER Hurricane Linda was a Category 5 and I _think_ had T numbers near 7.5 or 8 and they didn't need to fly into it then.

If they don't classify it as a 5 if T numbers do approach 7 or 7.5 then they will be missing out on a lot, especially holding back a lot of data. I mean we know the satellites are pretty much spot on (within 10% accuracy) and if that is all we have to go by we should pretty well go by those numbers instead of creeping it higher or lower just because we feel like it or wish to be conservative.

Hurricanes are what they are, and at least satellites are unbiased enough to give an objective opinion.

[wrkh99]

I'll guess 150 next adv

[mf_dolphin]

I'll go with the 145 mph group. Without direct observations I just don't think they'll call it a CAT5. If they do then it sure would caise a stir on the Florida East Coast...

[WeatherEmperor]

Let me just say that if Isabel becomes upgraded to a Cat5 tonight or tomorrow or whenever and is moving in the general direction of South Florida, it will cause a huge still. I remember when Floyd was still moving towards Florida it was being compared to Andrew and what not so things could get a bit worrysome down here.

[AussieMark]

I would say it would either maintain 140 mph or increase to 145-150 mph but climing in excess of 155 mph seems not likely as it has already completed its radpid intensification process.

[spaceisland]

I remember sitting in the local community college where I worked watching my satellite connection until Floyd finally made its turn away from FL. Outside my office door was the shelter for the general public. What a horrific zoo! A friend at the Melbourne NWS later told me that if Floyd's turn had been just a few hours later, it would have been a disaster for Brevard County. My diabetic mother was with me wheel-chair bound...

[Valkhorn]

If you notice there wasn't a change in appearance at all from when Mitch went from 150mph to 185mph or so. The T numbers increased from around 7 to 7.5 or nearly 8.0 but the appearance of Mitch was fairly stable.

Isabel is a mammoth storm though. The outflow is just incredible on the western side.

[wrkh99]

Looks to be geting stronger ... I don't think they will upgrade it untill tomorrow morning when recon gets there . If recon was in it now I think that it would be rare cat 5 storm .

[wrkh99]

anyone else want to play ?

[WeatherNLU]

Sure, I'll play. I am going to go with 150. I think the T numbers are at or above 7. It will surely be raised to 145, unless something changes between now and then, but I am going to go with 150.

[seaswing]

I remember Floyd very well. It was the first time I can remember (besides Governor Lawton Chiles death, and Sept 11th 2001) that the University of Florida where I work sent EVERYONE home, it was mandatory. Only essential personnel were allowed to stay. I wonder now because of the fact that Floyd turned away and it didn't happen (that time) if they would do that again based on a category 4 or 5 hurricane skirting the coast? believe me, if it was considered a possibility, they wouldn't have to tell me to leave, they could "color me gone" *LOL*

[abajan]

IMO it has already peaked but we'll see some fluctuations. It may go as high as 155 mph maximum sustained winds but no more. It probably would have had a good chance at Cat5 were it not for all the upwelling caused by Fabian.

Nevertheless, Isabel is a mighty powerful system.

[ColinD]

140-145.

[wrkh99]

its at that already now Colin