Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM has some development in the BOC at 144 hours:

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles are starting to show some Sea Level Pressure Spread in the Western GOM/BOC by next Saturday..




If anything were try to develop late next week into the weekend it would most likely track towards Mexico, Hopefully a tad more north so Texas can get some much needed rainfall.



18zGFS Ensembles 500mb Pattern hold the Texas Ridge rather strong by days 6 and 7...Still plenty of time to things change..

Friday



Saturday

[ROCK]

Well I can tell you today the ridge had retreated some off the coast....plenty of low level moisture has been streaming in. I got 2in of rain in one hour today....have to get closer to something developing before we can be sure of a MX track....

Case in point...the 18z GFS bring a TD into the WGOM in he long range and smacks the TX/LA border

[bamajammer4eva]

With the persistent troughiness in the Eastern US this year, one would think that anything that formed in the Gulf would lift off to the North and then Northeast especially as we head further into the fall season.

[LaBreeze]

With the persistent troughiness in the Eastern US this year, one would think that anything that formed in the Gulf would lift off to the North and then Northeast especially as we head further into the fall season.

Key phrase, "one would think that", but Mother Nature has been quite contrary.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:


A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[NDG]

With the persistent troughiness in the Eastern US this year, one would think that anything that formed in the Gulf would lift off to the North and then Northeast especially as we head further into the fall season.

Key phrase, "one would think that", but Mother Nature has been quite contrary.

There would have to be a trough at least in the MS river valley if not a little further west in the central US to pull anything out of the gulf, the persistent ridge over the central US has not let that happen.
Over the next couple weeks at least there are signs that the pattern could change.

[Portastorm]

8 AM TWO:


A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Has NHC been doing this all season and I just missed it? I mean ... the bit about talking of potential development beyond 48 hours and speculating on something based on computer models. This is interesting.

[RL3AO]

Has NHC been doing this all season and I just missed it? I mean ... the bit about talking of potential development beyond 48 hours and speculating on something based on computer models. This is interesting.

Started on August 1st. They've been doing it in-house for a few years and made it public now.

[ROCK]

yeah they are basing there percentages on global models....I am not sure I like it though but whatever....We all pretty much know whats about to go down in 5 days anyway....

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: yeah they are basing there percentages on global models....I am not sure I like it though but whatever....We all pretty much know whats about to go down in 5 days anyway....

Knowing our Texas drought luck, "what's about to go down" will go up ... into Louisiana.

[ROCK]

Check out 6z NAVGEM...that is a massive BOC storm at 144...

The NAV never shows a sub 1000 storm even on its good days!

[Portastorm]

Check out 6z NAVGEM...that is a massive BOC storm at 144...

The NAV never shows a sub 1000 storm even on its good days!

Indeed. This is one stout looking system in the BOC!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12zGFS tries to close of a low by 96hrs in the BOC....Thursday Morning.

[Rgv20]

According to the 12zGFS there is no steering to speak of! By Saturday the low is basically in the same place as Thursday..

[perk]

:uarrow: yeah they are basing there percentages on global models....I am not sure I like it though but whatever....We all pretty much know whats about to go down in 5 days anyway....

Knowing our Texas drought luck, "what's about to go down" will go up ... into Louisiana.

Portastorm i feel your pain,i have absolutely no hope Texas will get any rain out of whatever forms in the BOC.

[Rgv20]

Maybe not Central and North Texas but Deep South Texas all the way up to maybe San Antonio have a chance of seeing at least some enhancement of Sea Breeze showers with the BOC system.

[perk]

:uarrow: Maybe not Central and North Texas but Deep South Texas all the way up to maybe San Antonio have a chance of seeing at least some enhancement of Sea Breeze showers with the BOC system.

Gee thanks Rgv20,i've already ran the bus over myself, and you just hopped in put it in reverse and ran me over again.

[LaBreeze]

:uarrow: yeah they are basing there percentages on global models....I am not sure I like it though but whatever....We all pretty much know whats about to go down in 5 days anyway....

Knowing our Texas drought luck, "what's about to go down" will go up ... into Louisiana.

What's about to go down in 5 days? A closed off Low? Probably goes west to Mexico.