ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF has the vorticity east of the Leewards at 240 hours. Much slower than the CMC but I think the reason why it is faster than the GFS and ECMWF as that the latter models develop the system getting ready to roll of of Africa which disrupts the tradewind flow. Seems to slow to me but let's see what ends up happening:

[Blown Away]

Models seem to indicate some potential development once it nears the NE Caribbean. Maybe the reason for 0% is due to the very slow movement across the Atlantic and the development begins beyond 5 days??

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM shows this invest as 1005MB low east of the Leewards at 144 hours:

[gatorcane]

00Z CMC has this invest as a 1005MB low over Puerto Rico in 168 hours heading west:

[gatorcane]

The 00Z ECMWF has the invest a little north of Puerto Rico at 240 hours (tiny orange spec on the image) heading west with a big High pressure area centered just off the coast of the Northeastern United States:

[gatorcane]

Latest guidance:

[gatorcane]

Latest Guidance:



00Z GEM takes this through the Leewards/Puerto Rico and the Caribbean islands and ends up in the Bahamas:

[gatorcane]

It looks like the GFS finally develops this down the road in the Bahamas, though it is very long range:

The below image is how the long-range GFS ends at 384 hours. You will see the 997 Low east of the Bahamas. Looking at the entire loop of the 18Z GFS, it looks like it sends 97L west through the Northern Caribbean then pulls it north from the Caribbean around 288 hours and develops it in the Bahamas and shoots it NE:

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS is still developing 98L down the road. In fact it is bringing development in now making this somewhat more believable. Now we see it start developing at around 252 hours in the Bahamas then it shoots it NE. Let's see if future runs of the GFS show this...

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has this landfalling in Florida as a tropical storm around hr between hrs 288 and 300 around Jacksonville

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows something trying to get going near the Bahamas again from this invest at 240 hours:

[Hurricaneman]

The thing that can't be known beyond truncation is how the ridge\trough position is going to be, but the best bet is to wait until Friday to get a better understanding of how the steering currents are going to be and if this will stall in the Bahamas or not, but the last few runs do a loop just east of the east coast which would need to be watched if it continues into pre truncation

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[Hammy]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/f240.gif

system clearly shows up in Euro through the forecast period, and hints of possible development down the road in the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS has the system just a little east of the Bahamas at 240 hours moving slowly west:

[blp]

00z Euro now developing this in the Bahamas at 240hr.