Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[Rgv20]

Well the 12zGFS never really moved the BOC low! By next Monday it is still spinning in the BOC..




For entertainment purposes this is the Rainfall totals of the 12zGFS

6-10 days Rainfall totals



11-15 days Rainfall totals

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Maybe not Central and North Texas but Deep South Texas all the way up to maybe San Antonio have a chance of seeing at least some enhancement of Sea Breeze showers with the BOC system.

Gee thanks Rgv20,i've already ran the bus over myself, and you just hopped in put it in reverse and ran me over again.

Rgv20, I think it'll actually depend on how much this system develops. You Valley folks will make out on this one regardless. Enjoy that rain and don't hog it all!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Nothing as of now. Just some models showing there could be something trying to develop out of a trough of low pressure. And we all know what to think about long range model runs.

[Portastorm]

Nothing as of now. Just some models showing there could be something trying to develop out of a trough of low pressure. And we all know what to think about long range model runs.

While generally I share your cynical approach here, there is rather widespread support from medium-range models as well as professional meteorologists who believe that "something" will be percolating in the BOC stewpot in the next week. At least for me that raises my confidence level from "I'll believe when I see it" to "hmmm... this may be worth watching."

[Rgv20]

:uarrow: Maybe not Central and North Texas but Deep South Texas all the way up to maybe San Antonio have a chance of seeing at least some enhancement of Sea Breeze showers with the BOC system.

Gee thanks Rgv20,i've already ran the bus over myself, and you just hopped in put it in reverse and ran me over again.

Rgv20, I think it'll actually depend on how much this system develops. You Valley folks will make out on this one regardless. Enjoy that rain and don't hog it all!

Hopefully the tropical moisture can sneak up northward to Central Texas!

Meanwhile CMC up to its old tricks!

12zCMC forecast valid for Friday Morning

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was late responding to labreeze, thats why i said nothing as of now. Oh I agree about something might try to come together but I think that something will just be another trough like the pro mets I have seen talk about. Something to watch since nothing else out there but I'm not gassing up the generators by any means

[ROCK]

Need the EURO to latch on then I bet percentages go up in 5 days....should be running soon. CMC is the latest I have seen but pulls this northward rather than the "sit and spin" idea.

BTW- I think our first major will be in the GOM this year....JMO...

[Sanibel]

West Gulf appears to be itchin to spin something up.

[ROCK]

I know. I can understand this not getting much attention but the gulf has nothing. Been trying to set people straight over in that thread today

you have almost every major global model showing a threat to the CONUS next week. The Carib / GOM is boiling hot and with the right upper air conditions you could have a rapidly developing TC knocking on your back door. That pretty much warrants attention more so than a sure fire cane going into the Spain....

[CrazyC83]

Something like Bret 1999 or Celia 1970 perhaps?

[Alyono]

more fearful of another Stan than I am of a Texas strike

Development chances are a LOT higher than 20 percent... closer to 50-60 percent

[CrazyC83]

Recently, the I name has been bad pretty much every year...assuming 91L becomes Humberto, this takes Ingrid...

[supercane4867]

Something like Bret 1999 or Celia 1970 perhaps?

Arlene(2011) and Gladys(1955) are my best analogs
Don't think it will get to Texas

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

this map should tell you all you need to know.....if the upper levels are right....buckle up Dorothy because Kansas is going bye bye!!

[RL3AO]

more fearful of another Stan than I am of a Texas strike

Development chances are a LOT higher than 20 percent... closer to 50-60 percent

NHC seems to be slow to ramp up the numbers with these BOC systems. This season and in previous years. Climatologically, any disturbance in the BOC this time of year has more than a 20% chance. Throw in some model support...

[Portastorm]

more fearful of another Stan than I am of a Texas strike

Development chances are a LOT higher than 20 percent... closer to 50-60 percent

Would you please explain the Stan reference ... is that in regard to movement or strength/development or both?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The issue with development here is that there should also be a developing, broad tropical disturbance on the other side of Mexico [in the East Pacific]. This is a classic pre-season-like setup. It will be a battle for dominance...if the EPAC AOA develops quickly, the BOC system will be sheared and eventually absorbed; and vice-versa.

I have my bets on this developing though. I'd give it 70% chance in 5 days. NHC is definitely too low.

[ROCK]

I wouldnt rule out Texas and or SW LA if a deep TC was to form...analogs are useless IMO...why? because you will never have the same setup for every storm. NEVER....timing of any front or short wave could break down the ridging just enough....

[Portastorm]

Something like Bret 1999 or Celia 1970 perhaps?

Arlene(2011) and Gladys(1955) are my best analogs
Don't think it will get to Texas

Why? With the ridge eroding to the north and settling more into the southeastern US this coming week, why would you think a developing BOC system would move west?

[HURAKAN]

gotta love how analogs are thrown left and right .. can't you just wait for something to develop? LOL