ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[AEWspotter]

In the last VIS images of the day, this thing doesn't look all that good. Things still looked sloppy after their 2nd pass, but the recon plane did just abruptly turn around....

[HurricaneDREW92]

Not a prayer. No one likes rumors. Please stop. Thanks.

Local met says we're getting an upgrade at 11pm EST. True?

No. Tim Kelly just said that whilst I was eating my dinner.

[SeGaBob]

Here where I live our local mets would not even acknowledge this system unless it was right on our doorsteps...

[SeGaBob]

8pm TWO:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD AND POORLY
DEFINED...AND DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[SeGaBob]

Cycloneye you can delete my post... we posted at the same time.

[abajan]

Not a prayer. No one likes rumors. Please stop. Thanks.

Local met says we're getting an upgrade at 11pm EST. True?

No. Tim Kelly just said that whilst I was eating my dinner.

Watching news like that while eating can make you barf.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye you can delete my post... we posted at the same time.

I deleited my post as it came a few seconds after yours.

[SeGaBob]

Cycloneye you can delete my post... we posted at the same time.

I deleited my post as it came a few seconds after yours.

Ok that's fine too.

[SeGaBob]

Local met says we're getting an upgrade at 11pm EST. True?

I highly doubt it being the NHC has left it at 20-40 for the 8pm TWO.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2013090800, , BEST, 0, 246N, 692W, 30, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%-30%.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Extratropical94]

07L has been renumbered to INVEST 92L

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al072013_al922013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309081207
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[ROCK]

why called it an invest? this is the remenants of Gabby. I thought it would have stayed the same name. even the floater has Gabby on it...not 92L....bizzare...

[ROCK]

BTW- IMO, the center has become better defined and it has that look even though its fighting some shear.

[HurricaneDREW92]

BTW- IMO, the center has become better defined and it has that look even though its fighting some shear.

Definitely

[galaxy401]

NHC no longer seems to think of development down the line. They're now saying conditions will stay unfavorable.

[SeGaBob]

NHC no longer seems to think of development down the line. They're now saying conditions will stay unfavorable.

Forecaster Berg seems kind of negative because he (or she) lowers the chances on more systems than the rest of the NHC forecasters do... but I guess you can't blame them though because of the way this season has been.

[Hammy]

Looking better today, trying to form banding on the west and the center looks a bit better defined than yesterday. Could go subtropical in a few days by the looks of it.

[gatorcane]

Looking better today, trying to form banding on the west and the center looks a bit better defined than yesterday. Could go subtropical in a few days by the looks of it.

Yeah it is definitely a fighter considering the amount of shear it has been hit with the past several days. Here is the latest VIS GIF loop below. You can see the center is around 69N, 25W with no deep convection there, only some cumulus swirling around. All of the convection is displaced well east of this center due to the strong WSW shear.

You get the feeling that if shear can let up some, it will start to wrap and could get going pretty quickly into something. I noticed the center seems stationary again (or maybe a slow drift east) as steering currents are very weak.

Check out the left-hand side of the image with those high-clouds streaking ENE over the Bahamas. That is some pretty intense shear due to the trough...when you see that...you know things are not good for development.

[cycloneye]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS ELONGATED...AND
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.