ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

HurricaneDREW92 · #101 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:54 pm

Almost no doubt in my mind we see TD 9 or potentially Humberto at 5pm EST:

hurricanes1234 · #102 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:54 pm

Maybe it'll be renumbered at 5:00 PM.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SeGaBob · #103 Postby **SeGaBob** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:55 pm

I won't have any problems with this storm becoming a hurricane as long as it waits until after the 11th.

jaguarjace · #104 Postby **jaguarjace** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:55 pm

NOT AN OFFICIAL WEATHER PRODUCT
This graphic is just my opinion. Please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hyperstorm · #105 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:16 pm

Kudos to the GFS for being dead on...showing development for so long.

The system looks like it's organizing quite quickly with excellent outflow. This was the GFS forecast several days ago..tracking south of Cape Verde and exploding in development. At the current rate of organization, it could be close to hurricane strength in about 24 hours. Not good for Cape Verde if it suddenly jumps NW.

Hurricane Humberto seems like a go...

galaxy401 · #106 Postby **galaxy401** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:22 pm

Certainly starting to get "the look" now. Not sure they'll upgrade soon but most likely tonight.

#107 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:25 pm

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

B. 08/1745Z

C. 13.1N

D. 21.1W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 BASED ON
DEVELOPING 24HR TREND. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...LIDDICK

Should have a TD/TS soon.

#108 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:26 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al092013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309081925
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

#109 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:29 pm

Is that OSCAT pass reliable? If so, it should be Humberto immediately with 35-40 kt winds?

#110 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:30 pm

Not surprised on the renumber.

#111 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:31 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is that OSCAT pass reliable? If so, it should be Humberto immediately with 35-40 kt winds?

Best track has it as a TD with 25kts

AL, 09, 2013090818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 202W, 25, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,

TJRE · #112 Postby **TJRE** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:42 pm

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

OPC 96hr outlook---not very bullish

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Hammy · #113 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is that OSCAT pass reliable? If so, it should be Humberto immediately with 35-40 kt winds?

OSCAT has a history of being lower resolution with the wind direction, while for some reason greatly overestimating speed.

#114 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:46 pm

Let's see how NHC has the forecast intensity to see if they go up to hurricane.

galaxy401 · #115 Postby **galaxy401** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:48 pm

Of course right after I said it won't be until tonight...Cape Verde has to watch this system.

#116 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let's see how NHC has the forecast intensity to see if they go up to hurricane.

Amazingly, that would be the first time this season. I don't know if that would be another record.

#117 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:56 pm

Beautiful upper-level outflow as seen on WV imagery with a nice anticyclone sitting right on top of this invest. Development is good to go...! Saved WV GIF loop:

#118 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:57 pm

^^^^

Looks really good.

hurricanes1234 · #119 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:58 pm

Are they sure it's only a 30-mph depression? It looks like it's between 35 and 45 mph to me. We could end up with Humberto by 5:00 PM. I think Humberto is most rhythmic name thus far, and I'm quite anxious to see what the intensity forecast looks like. Considering this is so near to the Cape-Verde islands, I am assuming that intermediate updates would be issued. Any thoughts on intensity?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hurricaneCW · #120 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:59 pm

I think it'll be a hurricane sometime tomorrow, it's rapidly organizing. It's ok to have doubts given how the season has gone but you can't tell me this storm won't become a hurricane based on what it's been doing and how well modeled it was.

ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

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