Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know. I can understand this not getting much attention but the gulf has nothing. Been trying to set people straight over in that thread today

you have almost every major global model showing a threat to the CONUS next week. The Carib / GOM is boiling hot and with the right upper air conditions you could have a rapidly developing TC knocking on your back door. That pretty much warrants attention more so than a sure fire cane going into the Spain....

I hear ya rock, but the models have shown this a few times this season in the gulf and have had nothing. Also i didnt see a threat to the gulf, just a model storm sitting down in the boc for a few days. Trust me I will be all over it if something actually forms and actually threatens the gulf coast, but until then just keeping it real and staying in my believe when I see it mode

Mods feel free to move this to other thread if need be

[gatorcane]

Something like Bret 1999 or Celia 1970 perhaps?

Arlene(2011) and Gladys(1955) are my best analogs
Don't think it will get to Texas

Why? With the ridge eroding to the north and settling more into the southeastern US this coming week, why would you think a developing BOC system would move west?

When I look at the 700MB flow from the 12Z GFS, ridging looks rather stubborn across Texas and the Northern GOM for the next couple of weeks which would keep the type of system the 12Z GFS is showing trapped in the BOC not allowing it to gain latitude:

Full 384 hour 700MB loop below:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090812/gfs_z700_vort_atl.html

The CMC and NAVGEM develop the system also around the Yucatan, send it west through the southern BOC and into Mexico with the Texas ridge not budging to allow a turn to the north.

Model consensus is growing we have may see some development, but so far, the model consensus is not suggesting a CONUS issue.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

I have to agree that there is ridging in the general vicinity of Texas and the gulf coast region. I would put greater odds of another one to MX. You typically need very good troughing into the central part of the country (Texas too) for a Ngulf threat. Also whatever develops will likely take it's sweet time until in the BOC which timing then takes over as with it's predecessors.

[ROCK]

I know. I can understand this not getting much attention but the gulf has nothing. Been trying to set people straight over in that thread today

you have almost every major global model showing a threat to the CONUS next week. The Carib / GOM is boiling hot and with the right upper air conditions you could have a rapidly developing TC knocking on your back door. That pretty much warrants attention more so than a sure fire cane going into the Spain....

I hear ya rock, but the models have shown this a few times this season in the gulf and have had nothing. Also i didnt see a threat to the gulf, just a model storm sitting down in the boc for a few days. Trust me I will be all over it if something actually forms and actually threatens the gulf coast, but until then just keeping it real and staying in my believe when I see it mode

Mods feel free to move this to other thread if need be

yeah Mike I know about "seeing is believing" this year. I was just giving you a hard time.. to be honest, I am concerned for GOMERS with this potential system. Doom and gloom is really not my persona but I am taking a bullish approach. Why? the GOM has been virtually untouched so pontetial for a strong system is there, also we are approaching mid-Sept....ridging breaks down...will be watching the globals for sure....

[srainhoutx]

If this were late June/early July I would tend to agree the greatest threat would be from Vera Cruz to Tuxpan. The WPC has been rather unsure with the placement of the Upper Ridge and with the continued troughiness developing late next week. The Western Gulf is very unsettled and one thing that is consistent via guidance is pressures will be lower and a lot of convection is currently ongoing and likely to continue into late next week. I agree that chance of development are likely higher than 20%. The upper air pattern appears to be transient. Areas from Tuxpan to Louisiana probably need to keep an eye on this disturbance, IMO.

[Rgv20]

Some of the 12zGFS Ensembles Members show some decent development in 5 to 6 days.



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[ROCK]

since we are playing analog TCs.... I didnt go back too far....lol

Audrey analog?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Hurricane 1
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Hurricane 5
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Hurricane 10- the only cross over I could find...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Portastorm]

Good discussion here today. I appreciate all the viewpoints, maps, analogs, etc. I would agree that whatever cooks in the BOC this week will be slow to do anything. Beyond that, I'm not all that confident in anything.

[chaser1]

I know. I can understand this not getting much attention but the gulf has nothing. Been trying to set people straight over in that thread today

you have almost every major global model showing a threat to the CONUS next week. The Carib / GOM is boiling hot and with the right upper air conditions you could have a rapidly developing TC knocking on your back door. That pretty much warrants attention more so than a sure fire cane going into the Spain....

I hear ya rock, but the models have shown this a few times this season in the gulf and have had nothing. Also i didnt see a threat to the gulf, just a model storm sitting down in the boc for a few days. Trust me I will be all over it if something actually forms and actually threatens the gulf coast, but until then just keeping it real and staying in my believe when I see it mode

I swear, this season has pretty much drained me of rational prediction LOL. I have seen a good number of global models seem to hedge that possible development might occur in the BOC, however conditions would seem to indicate a "small" risk to Florida's West Coast.

There seems to be a wave that is flaring up in the NW Caribbean. This may be truly transitory and I assume might be the "trigger point" to what the models are picking up developing in the BOC. Given the near term falling pressures forecast to occur in the S. Gulf and Caribbean, I then look at the 200mb flow and see that development might be plausible from the S. Gulf to the W. Caribbean. In fact there would seem to be a window starting at around 72 hours where upper air conditions would seem to be particularly favorable for the W. Caribbean and Yucatan regions. If development ultimately occurs in the BOC, than I see little reason to think that such a system would do otherwise than a slow West to NW motion which would primarily impact Mexico.

However...... contrary to most models indicating development further west, I see a greater risk (not suggesting likelihood, just risk) from development should it occur south of W. Cuba. Again, starting at about 72 hours and especially at about 90 hours, the 12Z GFS seems to indicate a break in the SE Conus ridge due to the deepening trough along the US east coast. In fact, this trough does not immediately pull out, but rather deepen further for a couple of days and "if" there were any system in place at the time, would seem likely to pull any W. Caribbean system northward and eventually NNE. This risk seems minimal at the moment given that no models (NGM excluded) predict such development in this area so far. Given the steering flow however, this might pose the greater risk to the US, rather than the more likely development in the BOC.

[Alyono]

more fearful of another Stan than I am of a Texas strike

Development chances are a LOT higher than 20 percent... closer to 50-60 percent

Would you please explain the Stan reference ... is that in regard to movement or strength/development or both?

extensive flooding over Central America

[ROCK]

12Z CMC forms at the tip of the Yucatan then curves it around the pennisula and into the BOC at 120hr....front coming down from the plains....still buries it in the BOC though...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS develops a decent TC in the BOC by the 20th, brings it northward a bit then back westward. Beyond 5 days this should be taken with a grain of salt as far as specifics but the trend continues with heating up the BOC and/or Western Carib.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090818/gfs_mslp_wind_atl.html

[cycloneye]

Up to 30% in five days.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROCK]

18Z NAM follows the 12Z CMC.....comes out of the carib and forms at the tip of the Yucatan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM.....up from the carib but hits the Yucatan mid way....ends up in the BOC.....big sucker...


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

FIM9.....hasnt showed anything until now....



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[Portastorm]

Know it's far out (next weekend) but I'm seeing that ridging re-develop over Texas like some here, including Alyono, suggested earlier today. I get the comparisons now to some of those BOC systems which formed and did a half-gainer back into Central America.

Still very early though as we all know. Regardless it's something for those of us on the Gulf Coast to watch carefully.

[Alyono]

if this sets up like the models are showing, there will be catastrophic flooding for Mexico and C America

[ROCK]

Know it's far out (next weekend) but I'm seeing that ridging re-develop over Texas like some here, including Alyono, suggested earlier today. I get the comparisons now to some of those BOC systems which formed and did a half-gainer back into Central America.

Still very early though as we all know. Regardless it's something for those of us on the Gulf Coast to watch carefully.

understood....something to consider is the current GFS and CMC runs bring this close to Texas out of the BOC.....obvious they are seeing a weaker ridge sort of like we saw this past weekend. Not discounting a stout ridge but there is a front swinging down at some point and there will be an opportunity. I need the EURO to latch on and see what it shows....this would be mid Sept and ridges dont hold as long as they would in June...

[Nikki]

I know so much can change and it will, but are we looking at a potential Texas event vs. a Mexico event?

[CrazyC83]

I know so much can change and it will, but are we looking at a potential Texas event vs. a Mexico event?

Too early to tell.