ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#181 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 08, 2013 8:31 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Is there a chance this storm could stay south of Cape Verde and turn north once it passes the islands?


The current track guidance from NHC looks to take this just south of the islands before turning north.

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Re: Re:

#182 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 08, 2013 8:42 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Since the satellite era, 2013 is the 3rd (so far) latest to have the first hurricane of the season. Before satellites, due to the lack of coverage over the entire basin, its very difficult to have an accurate record.


Before satellites, some storms that were major hurricanes may have been missed entirely, such as Fred and Julia...


Agree


Ok, thanks guys. that's what I thought they probably meant. So not a very long period of record.

Hey there Sandy! Good to see you. :)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#183 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:15 pm

Is the centre still displaced, or is it moving under the convection? I must say that this system looks a lot better than all of our Cape-Verde systems so far in 2013. For all Cape-Verde residents, stay safe.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#184 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:18 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is the centre still displaced, or is it moving under the convection? I must say that this system looks a lot better than all of our Cape-Verde systems so far in 2013. For all Cape-Verde residents, stay safe.



Really hard to tell at night. So far there's no microwave I can find that helps. We have to wait for a good microwave sat overpass or else for daylight.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#185 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:21 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is the centre still displaced, or is it moving under the convection? I must say that this system looks a lot better than all of our Cape-Verde systems so far in 2013. For all Cape-Verde residents, stay safe.

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still looks displaced on the east edge of the convection, and was verified on scatterometer overpass which showed most of the stronger winds to the west. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309082015.GIF have to watch very closely a few times, looks to be SE of the main ball.

personal opinion and not official.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#186 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:30 pm

Hammy wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Is the centre still displaced, or is it moving under the convection? I must say that this system looks a lot better than all of our Cape-Verde systems so far in 2013. For all Cape-Verde residents, stay safe.

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still looks displaced on the east edge of the convection, and was verified on scatterometer overpass which showed most of the stronger winds to the west. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309082015.GIF have to watch very closely a few times, looks to be SE of the main ball.

personal opinion and not official.


But be careful. That's old data now. A lot may have happened since this afternoon. It certainly looks to have consolidated a lot more since this afternoon if you look at rgb and avn satellite, and once again, without one or more microwave satellite images (including a newer ASCAT) there is no way of telling. Unless I missed a more recent MV sat overpass.

Btw, the Colorado State METEOSAT image loop you posted is IR and is not useful for showing any LLC.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#187 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:37 pm

After looking at the IR loop it appears convection is building to the east relative to the storm motion. Whether or not the MLC and LLC are coupled remains to be seen...
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#188 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:40 pm

This isn't necessarily an accurate position but using a forecast interpolation the center is still on the eastern edge of the convection:

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#189 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:42 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 21.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re:

#190 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:44 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:This isn't necessarily an accurate position but using a forecast interpolation the center is still on the eastern edge of the convection:

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/6968/3b3.gif


Thanks, sdf. But of course they have been way off on developing TCs. As you pointed out that's just an interpolation of where the center should be. I don't think we can say anything much until sun-up. I don't believe there will be any MV sat passes before then, including ASCAT. We just have to wait.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#191 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 08, 2013 10:08 pm

This should be a tropical storm by 5:00 AM tomorrow, if not, then 6 hours later. It has the look of a depression nearing storm force.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#192 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 08, 2013 11:10 pm

Very impressive convection - really cold cloud tops.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#193 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 08, 2013 11:41 pm

Sunrise over TD 9 will be in ~3 hours (6:22 CVT).
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#194 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:43 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:This should be a tropical storm by 5:00 AM tomorrow, if not, then 6 hours later. It has the look of a depression nearing storm force.

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Best track is up to 35kt / TS Humberto so an upgrade at 5:00 AM is likely.
AL, 09, 2013090906, , BEST, 0, 133N, 223W, 35, 1005, TS
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#195 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:39 am

First visible image of the day, LLC has definitely pulled itself underneath the deeper convection, albeit still on the eastern side. Healthy inflow noted as well.

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#196 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:53 am

IN FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE 200 MB CYCLONIC OUTDRAFT PATTERN BY 72
HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE. AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72
HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE HUMBERTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C
SSTS AT THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED PRIOR TO THE 72-HOUR TIME PERIOD
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#197 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:35 am

WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE


What a change from previous storms! Humberto is now forecast to become a strong Category 1, but I think it might end up being stronger. Any chances of a major hurricane?

By the way, I was spot-on with my forecast of Humberto being a TS by 5:00 AM this morning! First time! :jump:

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#198 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:52 am

center appears to be a fair bit east of the convection on 15 minute meteosat imagery
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#199 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 09, 2013 6:26 am

Tropical Storm Humberto Forms near Cape Verde Islands; Warnings Issued

Published: Sep 9, 2013, 5:38 AM EDT weather.com

:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... o-20130907


Tropical Storm Humberto has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, near the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa.

Since Humberto will brush the southern Cape Verde Islands, tropical storm warnings have been issued.

Humberto will gather strength the next few days and could become a hurricane by midweek. If this happens, Humberto would be the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2013 season.

With that said, thanks to the Bermuda-Azores high becoming more of an "Azores high", coupled with a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) nosing southwestward from the Mediterranean into the eastern Atlantic, this new tropical storm is likely to turn toward the northwest or north by mid-late week.

Increasingly strong west to southwest winds expected to develop across the central Atlantic Ocean are expected to deflect this system well east of Bermuda next week. It is no threat to the Caribbean Sea or mainland U.S.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#200 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 09, 2013 6:38 am

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