Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[Alyono]

Know it's far out (next weekend) but I'm seeing that ridging re-develop over Texas like some here, including Alyono, suggested earlier today. I get the comparisons now to some of those BOC systems which formed and did a half-gainer back into Central America.

Still very early though as we all know. Regardless it's something for those of us on the Gulf Coast to watch carefully.

understood....something to consider is the current GFS and CMC runs bring this close to Texas out of the BOC.....obvious they are seeing a weaker ridge sort of like we saw this past weekend. Not discounting a stout ridge but there is a front swinging down at some point and there will be an opportunity. I need the EURO to latch on and see what it shows....this would be mid Sept and ridges dont hold as long as they would in June...

GFS scenario would not lead to a strong system. As what happened 2 years ago with Nate, there would be major upwelling issues in the BOC

[Dean4Storms]

So far the pattern has been straight into MX and I don't see anything suggesting that changes over the next week or so.

[Nikki]

So far the pattern has been straight into MX and I don't see anything suggesting that changes over the next week or so.

Thank you! I don't know enough about models and troughs etc to know what they show, I appreciate your straight forward answers!!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep. And the long range discussions out of baton rouge office are going with weaker and weaker cold front for late week into the weekend which will only slightly weaken the eastern periphery of the Texas ridge. Another week with little to no rain for us either.

[ROCK]

0Z NAM....same as before...forms at the tip of the Yucatan at 84hr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 013090900/





Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Rgv20]

The 0zGFS is in no hurry with the BOC disturbance, it has spinning in the same location for quite a while. Looking at the GFS 850mb Vorticity forecast, it has the vorticity mainly over land and competing with the East Pacific.


96hrs


174hrs

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090545
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

<snip>

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW AROUND THAT TIME IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.

</snip>

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/090545_MIATWOAT.shtml

[Portastorm]

So essentially what we're looking at (or will be looking at) in the BOC this week is a monsoonal-type trough with various, competing low centers swirling around both sides of Central America. That seems to be the prevailing thought here and other places online I've seen. Sadly for Texas (and southwest Louisiana), if the ridging is as strong as progged right now we won't see much of some badly needed rainfall.

[cycloneye]

Snippet from this morning's NHC Tropical Outlook:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW AROUND THAT TIME IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF closes of a 1004mb Low in the Western GOM by Saturday Evening, it actually starts consolidating (1006mb) by Thursday Evening in the Southern BOC. I think the NHC might up the development chances Today....Should be at least 50% in the next 5 days IMO..


Saturday Evening

[tolakram]

Those images are not public.

For free versions of the same image you can use

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Sanibel]

Another round of convection in the west Caribbean. One of these should stick and spin-up eventually.

[ROCK]

0Z CMC brought a closed low up the coast towards STX....obvious its seeing a weaker ridge and deeper system
06Z NAVGEM same as the CMC
06Z NAM now forms something in the SW GOM rather than extreme BOC
0Z EURO finally locks on to something in the BOC...it does bring it up some but shunts it back into MX

['CaneFreak]

It is important to note that the NAM is not a tropical model and should not be used as such. I am saying this in general, not towards you or anyone in particular. I have just seen it referenced one too many times on this board when it in fact is not a tropical model. It does not have the correct physics for tropical cyclones contained within it.

0Z CMC brought a closed low up the coast towards STX....obvious its seeing a weaker ridge and deeper system
06Z NAVGEM same as the CMC
06Z NAM now forms something in the SW GOM rather than extreme BOC
0Z EURO finally locks on to something in the BOC...it does bring it up some but shunts it back into MX

[wxman57]

Looks like the TX ridge should be strong enough to keep any storm south of TX. How strong it becomes depends on how much time it has over water. We've seen that storms can intensify/develop very quickly in that region. Hurricane strength certainly possible if the center of any TS is offshore for 24 hrs.

[lester]

It is important to note that the NAM is not a tropical model and should not be used as such. I am saying this in general, not towards you or anyone in particular. I have just seen it referenced one too many times on this board when it in fact is not a tropical model. It does not have the correct physics for tropical cyclones contained within it.

0Z CMC brought a closed low up the coast towards STX....obvious its seeing a weaker ridge and deeper system
06Z NAVGEM same as the CMC
06Z NAM now forms something in the SW GOM rather than extreme BOC
0Z EURO finally locks on to something in the BOC...it does bring it up some but shunts it back into MX

It's a horrible model for any kind of weather lol

[ROCK]

It is important to note that the NAM is not a tropical model and should not be used as such. I am saying this in general, not towards you or anyone in particular. I have just seen it referenced one too many times on this board when it in fact is not a tropical model. It does not have the correct physics for tropical cyclones contained within it.

0Z CMC brought a closed low up the coast towards STX....obvious its seeing a weaker ridge and deeper system
06Z NAVGEM same as the CMC
06Z NAM now forms something in the SW GOM rather than extreme BOC
0Z EURO finally locks on to something in the BOC...it does bring it up some but shunts it back into MX

Oh I agree....the NAM sucks in the tropics but it does dam good for CONUS weather with trof and ridge placement. The only reason I show it...

[ROCK]

Looks like the TX ridge should be strong enough to keep any storm south of TX. How strong it becomes depends on how much time it has over water. We've seen that storms can intensify/develop very quickly in that region. Hurricane strength certainly possible if the center of any TS is offshore for 24 hrs.

You said "should be"... so you are telling me there is a chance.

the NAM shows a weaker ridge...allows whatever to make it to STX....however it is showing a split low scenario..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

[Tireman4]

Looks like the TX ridge should be strong enough to keep any storm south of TX. How strong it becomes depends on how much time it has over water. We've seen that storms can intensify/develop very quickly in that region. Hurricane strength certainly possible if the center of any TS is offshore for 24 hrs.

And that chances of the "should be" are?


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Very low chance of the center tracking inland as far north as Brownsville, TX. All models indicate a ridge over Texas late this week through next weekend. It could move inland between Tampico & Brownsville, though I'd say closer to Tampico. Only question for Texas would be if it produces any beneficial rain for the lower Valley.