ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 9
Location: 13.4°N 23.3°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[TheStormExpert]

Nice to actually wake up to a strengthening system, not a dying/falling apart system for once.

[tolakram]

A view from the GOES global shot. Angle is such that you won't see the partially exposed LLC.

11:45Z



from ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[wxman57]

On Meteosat, the center looks more than partially exposed. All convection is west of the center. Going to be tough to beat 2002's Gustav and become a hurricane by 12Z on the 11th. New record may be on the way.

[tolakram]

13Z

[Alyono]

on that image, the center looks like it is 200 miles east of the convection. May have multiple centers though

Point is, this is a very poorly organized system that is not intensifying quickly. Good news for the CV Islands

[Sanibel]

On the other hand the MJO positive phase may finally be taking effect. This could be the start of favorability.

[Frank2]

On Meteosat, the center looks more than partially exposed. All convection is west of the center. Going to be tough to beat 2002's Gustav and become a hurricane by 12Z on the 11th. New record may be on the way.

Far out - we've gone this far so we might as well go for the record (lol), thought the TCD does say that shear is forecast to lessen signficantly, so we'll see...

P.S. If anything impresses me about all this, it's the fact that the "traditional" hurricane season of my earliest memories no longer seems to exist - apparently the Earth's climate has changed that much in the past half century...

Frank2

[Extratropical94]

Best track is up to 40 knots

AL, 09, 2013090912, , BEST, 0, 135N, 236W, 40, 1005, TS

[CrazyC83]

Best track is up to 40 knots

AL, 09, 2013090912, , BEST, 0, 135N, 236W, 40, 1005, TS

The advisory intensity was increased to that as well. Confirmed by ASCAT passes. Given the low resolution, 45 kt may have been reasonable as well.

[MGC]

Maybe we'll get a hurricane out of this. I think if the shear dies down as forecast it will have a chance.

Now Frank, There have been several dud hurricane seasons the past 50 years.....doubt it is global warming. We've been spoiled by all the activity the past few years. I'm sure if we had the satellite technology the last time the AMO was in warm phase there would be a lot more of the junk TC that formed.......MGC

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Humberto

[AJC3]

Based on this morning's ASCAT pass and visible satellite imagery, I'm not seeing where either there could multiple centers or a completely exposed one. It's a fairly large gyre with a SW-NE or SSW-NNE elongated COC. Certainly the center isn't 200 miles (3+ degrees) east of the convective band on the west side, given that ASCAT had the center W or 23W at 1045 UTC.

[AJC3]

1312 UTC M/I image helps out...COC looks to be right on top of 24W, on the very eastern edge of the convective banding. Guess I'd call it *almost completely* exposed at that time based on M/I here, but the LLC never clearly came completely out from beneath the convective mass on its western flank in this morning's visible imagery. In any event, I suspect we'll see progressively less tilt with height over the next day or two, especially once it starts to make its northward turn.

[Hammy]

1312 UTC M/I image helps out...COC looks to be right on top of 24W, on the very eastern edge of the convective banding. Guess I'd call it *almost completely* exposed at that time based on M/I here, but the LLC never clearly came completely out from beneath the convective mass on its western flank in this morning's visible imagery. In any event, I suspect we'll see progressively less tilt with height over the next day or two, especially once it starts to make its northward turn.

Looks like its still being slammed with easterly shear and ingesting dry air on top of it, the northern half looked better last night.

[TJRE]

GOES Project science view
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

cropped



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[WeatherGuesser]

Die, die, DIE!!!

Scratch the 11th, let's go for the October 8th record.

[tolakram]

16Z

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The northeasterly shear affecting Humberto -- a result of the African jet punching just off the coastline as is typical for this time of the year -- should abate over the next 12 hours as the system gets farther west and the upper-level high becomes better established atop the storm. The GFS, LGEM, and SHIPS are in good agreement for a period of rapid intensification once an inner core forms. This system is likely to become a strong Category 1, but a major hurricane is not impossible as illustrated by the recent 12z run. In 72-96 hours, the system will enter cooler water and weaken slowly. I've not checked today, but yesterday's runs of the GFS and ECMWF were in good agreement once the system passed into the open central Atlantic east of Bermuda in a little over a week for re-intensification.

P.S. I'm on my phone so if there are any spelling errors please forgive me lol.

[Frank2]

Now Frank, There have been several dud hurricane seasons the past 50 years.....doubt it is global warming. We've been spoiled by all the activity the past few years. I'm sure if we had the satellite technology the last time the AMO was in warm phase there would be a lot more of the junk TC that formed.......MGC

True, and for example 1977 was almost nil execpt for Anita, but the seasons of this age somehow seem different - not the usual wave progression across the Atlantic that I remember years ago, but each seasons is different, of course...

In fact, the busy 1969 season was odd because it had 5 unnamed systems, though I once heard that after disasterous Camille the NHC was worried and named just about anything and everything for the remainder of that season...

P.S. I like that color photo that was posted earlier - Humberto is looking more impressive...

Frank