Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[ROCK]

now we wait for the curveball the models typically throw out at this time. We are talking 6-7 days from now.....

['CaneFreak]

Fair enough. I agree it is a fairly good model for the US's overall synoptic pattern.

Oh I agree....the NAM sucks in the tropics but it does dam good for CONUS weather with trof and ridge placement. The only reason I show it...

[wxman57]

All models are indicating fairly strong wind shear along the TX coast and out across the NW Gulf through next weekend. Any storm moving north of 21N-22N would be encountering significantly stronger wind shear.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS has a moderate tropical storm from this in the BOC

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_45.png

significantly up the coast than prior runs at 132hr..... and a sub 1000....nice

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_45.png

here are the 500MB heights at 132hr...weaker ridging than earlier runs and we all know how the GFS over does ridging....




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

All models are indicating fairly strong wind shear along the TX coast and out across the NW Gulf through next weekend. Any storm moving north of 21N-22N would be encountering significantly stronger wind shear.

I dont know how much stock I put in wind shear models 7 days out....but thats just my opinion.

[ROCK]

BAM!!! there is your high sliding over to the east as typical for a mid- Sept pattern....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_54.png


SW LA to STX still a possibility IMO....


you can see how the flow changes....weakness is there....stronger system more north...


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_58.png

[baytownwx]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought the GFS typically breaks brakes down ridging to fast and the Euro typically shows more robust ridging. A solution in between is what I usually look at.

[ROCK]

:uarrow:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought the GFS typically breaks brakes down ridging to fast and the Euro typically shows more robust ridging. A solution in between is what I usually look at.

yes...that is correct....

[caneman]

:uarrow:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought the GFS typically breaks brakes down ridging to fast and the Euro typically shows more robust ridging. A solution in between is what I usually look at.

You are correct.

[caneman]

:uarrow:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought the GFS typically breaks brakes down ridging to fast and the Euro typically shows more robust ridging. A solution in between is what I usually look at.

You are correct.

Euro left bias and GFS right bias

[ROCK]

12 CMC coming out...want to see how it deal with intensity....66hr...forming this at the tip of the Yucatan rather than in the BOC as others have.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_12.png

[stormlover2013]

exactly you can't trust shear runs when its next weekend and etc, all my weather buddies would even tell me that!!

[Rgv20]

12zCMC has it going to the Tampico area in 5 days..

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.

[Alyono]

I'd recommend changing the title to NHC 0/30%... when the chances may in fact be much higher

[baytownwx]

Levi Cowan tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/377117079721103360

@TropicalTidbits: GFS shows TC in W GOM in 5-7 days. Will be interesting to see how far north it can sneak w/ shortwave to the north.

[wxman57]

exactly you can't trust shear runs when its next weekend and etc, all my weather buddies would even tell me that!!

Using that logic, you can't trust model projections of development, either. I think that a storm is very likely to form (maybe triple the NHC's 5-day chances) and if it is over water for more than 24hrs as a TS then it could easily become a hurricane. But it still looks like wind shear would be quite strong along the TX coast. I don't think it's going to hit the TX coast, though, so the wind shear won't be as much of an issue farther south.

[Tireman4]

Question..Claudette was a creeper along the Texas Coast...what caused her to do that? I forget...