ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Oh - I almost forgot - is there a weak Fujiwhara effect going on with Humberto and that previous invest to it's NW - the above GOES 13 color photo does show some interaction between the two...

Frank

[Hammy]

though I once heard that after disasterous Camille the NHC was worried and named just about anything and everything for the remainder of that season...Frank

Just to point out, most of the storms that formed after were near or at hurricane intensity.

I still have doubts Humberto will make it there, at least in the time frame NHC is saying, given that there seems to be a large mass of dry air moving directly towards it from the north, and i've noticed the shear has also switched around from the north now as well.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_16KMGWVP_201309082115.GIF

personal opinion and not official.

[tolakram]

Moving into a very low shear environment for the time being.



from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've been looking at the WV loop of the Atlantic, and the ridge to the north of Humberto is quite visible. I also see the weakness at around 35 longitude. My question is I thought the ULL to the north of the weakness was supposed to dive towards the Canary Islands, but it looks like it is drifting N not SE. Is it possible that this sharp turn N might be over done by the models?

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 24.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF BRAVA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[AJC3]

I've been looking at the WV loop of the Atlantic, and the ridge to the north of Humberto is quite visible. I also see the weakness at around 35 longitude. My question is I thought the ULL to the north of the weakness was supposed to dive towards the Canary Islands, but it looks like it is drifting N not SE. Is it possible that this sharp turn N might be over done by the models?

Not significantly, if any. The two features that will conspire to put a massive breach in the ridge north of Humberto... (1) A mid to upper level trough over the Iberian peninsula, and (2) A mid to upper level low near 30N 45W... aren't forecast to deepen and drop southwest (feature #1) and southward (feature #2) over the central and eastern Atlantic for another couple days.

[tolakram]

1800Z



from http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/NATURALCOLOR/FULLRESOLUTION/index.htm

[cycloneye]

Unless a rapid intensification process starts soon,it seems that the record of 5 AM EDT on September 11th of the latest first hurricane will be broken.

09/1800 UTC 13.6N 24.9W T2.5/2.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Up to 45 kts at 18z Best Track

AL, 09, 2013090918, , BEST, 0, 136N, 249W, 45, 1002, TS

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Per the forecast positions and intensity for the first few advisories, Humberto was supposed to be at 35 kt when the first advisory was issued (which had the storm peaking at 80 mph). Humberto is therefore intensifying slightly faster than forecast when the depression first formed. As for the 12-hour position, it was correctly forecast to be at 45 kt and the latitude was also perfectly nailed. Humberto has since been forecast to reach 90 mph, and become a hurricane probably very late tomorrow night or sometime between dawn and midnight.

The record is going to be very close, but if the forecast is accurate or Humberto overachieves a little more, I don't think the record will quite be broken.

-Andrew92

[AJC3]

Unless a rapid intensification process starts soon,it seems that the record of 5 AM EDT on September 11th of the latest first hurricane will be broken.

09/1800 UTC 13.6N 24.9W T2.5/2.5 45kt HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

45kt @ 09/21z ----> 65kt @ 11/09z, or dI/dt of 20kt/36hr, (5kt/9hr)

This would yield rough benchmarks of 50kt by midnight tonight, 55kt tomorrow morning, and 60kt sometime in the evening.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks very impressive.

[Hammy]

Humberto is nearing the 50kt wall that has been there with everything this season, lets see if it can surpass it this time.

[supercane4867]

TAFB: T3.5/55kt

AL, 09, 201309091800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1330N, 2510W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, EC, VI, 5, 3535 /////, , , MET10, CSC, T, Low level cloud patterns indicate system is still el

[hurricanes1234]

TAFB: T3.5/55kt

AL, 09, 201309091800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1330N, 2510W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, EC, VI, 5, 3535 /////, , , MET10, CSC, T, Low level cloud patterns indicate system is still el

So is it at 55 knots?

[supercane4867]

So is it at 55 knots?

Not unless the NHC say so, it's just an estimation

[Extratropical94]

TAFB: T3.5/55kt

AL, 09, 201309091800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1330N, 2510W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, EC, VI, 5, 3535 /////, , , MET10, CSC, T, Low level cloud patterns indicate system is still el

So is it at 55 knots?

That's only a satellite estimation, no official intensity. The best track file still has Humberto at 45 knots, but maybe the TAFB analysis makes the forecasters at the NHC lean towards a higher intensity like 50 or 55 knots for the next advisory.

[gatorcane]

Massive Humberto is showing up now on the Wide-vide Atlantic loop on far right-hand side of image. Look at the size of this storm

[gatorcane]

SSD Floater loop shows Humberto continuing to move West. No sign of a turn yet. Looks like we should start seeing that tomorrow night and Wed.:

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 25.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Read 5 PM discussion at advisories thread.