Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[Kalrany]

Thank you! Appreciate the clarification(s).

[South Texas Storms]

Snippet from this afternoon's AFD from the NWS in Austin/San Antonio:

"MEANWHILE A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES N-NWWD INTO THE FAR WRN GULF. NHC CURRENTLY PLACES A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY SEND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO S TX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MOISTURE SURGES NWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE GFS IS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO NORTH TX LATE MONDAY WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY OR TUESDAY."

[ROCK]

I fished the NWS AFDs from Brownsville to Mobile yesterday and no one was biting....Looks like they are biting today...

[Rgv20]

NWS afternoon discussion out of Brownsville..

''THE ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES THAT
MID LEVEL RIDING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MOVES THE BROAD LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE SMALL. THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST ON RAIN CHANCES
AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGH TEMPS WHILE THE GFS...A LITTLE LESS SO.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PERIODS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE FORECAST. EITHER WAY...A LARGE FETCH OF MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. WILL
HOLD OFF...FOR NOW...IN RAISING POPS FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD."

[ROCK]

18Z NAM....does not bury the lows in the BOC and or MX at 84....this looks more like WGOM than BOC...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_29.png

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles at day 6 Sunday Morning are a bit more north than the operational run....interesting days ahead!



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[ROCK]

that short wave is going to fold that ridge like a cheap suit...

[caneman]

WXMN57 - Do you foresee any action in the East GOM any time soon or before the end of year? Pattern wise.

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM almost done....keeps the TS down in the BOC a long time 168hr still down there getting stronger.



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[wxman57]

WXMN57 - Do you foresee any action in the East GOM any time soon or before the end of year? Pattern wise.

I wouldn't be so bold as to say you're free and clear through the season there. However, I don't think the disturbance in the western Caribbean that may develop in the BoC in 3-4 days is going to affect the eastern Gulf. Beyond this system as we move into later September and October, any such development in the SW Gulf might have a much better chance to track toward the NE Gulf (think Opal of 1995). Now I'm not saying another Opal is going to form, just that the NE Gulf isn't out of the woods as far as potential impact for quite a few weeks.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is some pretty good rotation showing up on SAT west of Belize moving NW

[Portastorm]

A lot of us are wondering WHEN does this become an "invest?" Do we need to have an actual low-level circulation center or centers?

[caneman]

WXMN57 - Do you foresee any action in the East GOM any time soon or before the end of year? Pattern wise.

I wouldn't be so bold as to say you're free and clear through the season there. However, I don't think the disturbance in the western Caribbean that may develop in the BoC in 3-4 days is going to affect the eastern Gulf. Beyond this system as we move into later September and October, any such development in the SW Gulf might have a much better chance to track toward the NE Gulf (think Opal of 1995). Now I'm not saying another Opal is going to form, just that the NE Gulf isn't out of the woods as far as potential impact for quite a few weeks.

K Thanks. And hopefully this will just be a nice rainmaker (a little wind for fun) for ya'll.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS is rolling....12hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_5.png

[Sanibel]

Visible spin to that disturbance, which is how Fernand got started.


I think the tropics are starting to ramp up.

[tropicwatch]

Could be something brewing at the surface now.

42056 located at 19.80N 84.86W reporting pressure around 1010mb and falling and buoy 42057 at 17.00N 81.50W reporting pressures around 1010mb and falling.

Broad area though

['CaneFreak]

That is likely a question for the forecasters at the NHC as they are the only ones who have the authority to declare a system an invest. They would likely be able to tell you what conditions warrant an upgrade to invest. However, I can say with some level of confidence that you do NOT need an actual low level center for it to become an invest.

A lot of us are wondering WHEN does this become an "invest?" Do we need to have an actual low-level circulation center or centers?

[Pearl River]

New Orleans AFD:

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A CANADIAN FRONT TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ON DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IMPETUS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH WITH A BACK-DOOR ORIENTATION
SATURDAY...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DEVOID OF TOO MUCH CONVECTION BUT
MAY ENHANCE THE FEW STORMS A BIT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
FRONTAL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SATUDAY THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TELECONNECTIONS WOULD STRONGLY
FAVOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS NOTION WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND. ANY
DEVELOPMENT TRACKS WOULD FAVOR A WESTWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO...AS
SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS HAVE DONE THIS SEASON ALREADY. CURRENT
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WOULD HAVE TO ABATE ACROSS THE LOWER GULF
BEFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE...BUT SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN
TIME. 24/RR

[ROCK]

RAMM has a floater on it...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Hurricane_Luis]

North of Honduras?