ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

8pm TWO will be quite interesting to see given the recent organization.

[cycloneye]

If its a TD/TS advisory at 11pm?

Not at 11 PM,unless it organizes very quickly,NHC will be more conservative as is not affecting any landmass right now although Bermuda may be on it's path in a few days.

[Riptide]

If its a TD/TS advisory at 11pm?

Not at 11 PM,unless it organizes very quickly,NHC will be more conservative as is not affecting any landmass right now although Bermuda may be on it's path in a few days.

A tropical storm exists and should be classified as such if convection continues. NHC is not known to be conservative to justify their forecasts but they should call it before or at 11pm. There is a chance they wait untill morning in order to observe the visible satellite.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I see it moving due north to just a click east of due north. Don't see it stalling or getting trapped under the ridge. Seems to be picking up plenty of speed this afternoon and nothing to slow it down.

[Aric Dunn]

I see it moving due north to just a click east of due north. Don't see it stalling or getting trapped under the ridge. Seems to be picking up plenty of speed this afternoon and nothing to slow it down.

the convection being blown that direction.. earlier when llc was exposed was drifting nw


also the ridge really beginning to build north of it.. it has a small window left to get out before the ridge stops it.. have to keep waiting...

and watch the loop..
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Aric, while I really enjoy your in depth analysis of systems over the years i just have to disagree with you on this one. See nothing that shows this will slow down and get trapped and turned back w or WSW. Now if that ull was moving west then maybe but its not either.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, while I really enjoy your in depth analysis of systems over the years i just have to disagree with you on this one. See nothing that shows this will slow down and get trapped and turned back w or WSW. Now if that ull was moving west then maybe but its not either.

oh the break is there all im saying is that it had better start moving a little faster all the models show the western atlantic ridging building in over the next 24 to 48 hours.. also if that upper low cuts off ( which it might ) it may begin to retrograde.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We shall see.

Maybe you can visit on over to the gulf thread and dig around and find a possiblity for the potential gulf disturbance to move more north instead of mexico and bring us some relief

[Aric Dunn]

We shall see.

Maybe you can visit on over to the gulf thread and dig around and find a possiblity for the potential gulf disturbance to move more north instead of mexico and bring us some relief

nope no chance... lol j/k

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 29m

Just cut Raging Weatherbull video on http://Weatherbell.com premium on Gabrielle explaining how its in favorable position to develop

[cycloneye]

40%-50%

THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS...
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[HurricaneDREW92]

40%-50%

THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS...
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Interesting wording hmm

[Hammy]

40%-50%

THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS...
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Interesting wording hmm

could this mean a possible 11pm upgrade if it doesn't collapse by then?

[supercane]

First Dvorak classification from SSD in 24hr:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/2345 UTC 27.3N 65.3W T1.0/1.0 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic

Source:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NHC should go ahead and declare this a tropical depression at 11pm AST. Convection flared up around 3-4 pm AST.

[Macrocane]

It looks very good to my eyes. It looks more symmetric than earlier, outflow is good, deep convection is present and even some banding is developing. A microwave or ASCAT would be very helpful right now.

[kat61]

I saw the satellite pics...and it looks suspicious....any chance it can do a loop (look like a fish and then dip and head west)? I just thought it strange that it went orange at that coordinates....that's different...

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is well on it's way to developing. I have been bullish on this developing and thought the NHC development chances were too low the past couple of days.

I thought it may have had a chance to get trapped by the ridge a couple of days ago but no longer think that is the case. Bermuda threat possibly then out to sea.

Latest IR loop:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it is well on it's way to developing. I have been bullish on this developing and thought the NHC development chances were too low the past couple of days.

I thought it may have had a chance to get trapped by the ridge a couple of days ago but no longer think that is the case. Bermuda threat possibly then out to sea.

Latest IR loop:

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/7451/8g09.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Track wise the NHC and all the other forecast models do pretty darn good, intensity wise is sort of almost the complete opposite.

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-rbtop-long.html

Would the center by chance be about 27/64.5? And this has got to be the best looking non-classified system I've seen recently.