Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Probably just the stink of the FIM run

[Portastorm]

Probably just the stink of the FIM run

I shouldn't laugh at this ... but ... oh my

I'm not going to have to separate you two am I?

[stormlover2013]

I don't trust model past 4 days!!

[Blinhart]

Right now I don't trust models over 24 hours, seems everything changes every 12 hours, so it is interesting to see what is going to happen over the next 2 months.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Probably just the stink of the FIM run

I shouldn't laugh at this ... but ... oh my

I'm not going to have to separate you two am I?

Just giving each other a hard time all in good fun while things are pretty quiet on the home front.

[Wx_Warrior]

Per a reliable met. High rebuilds back in on Thursday. Whatev.

[Kludge]

guidance tonight is keeping this down in the BOC way past 6 days....plenty of time for a weakness to develop by next Sunday. The 12Z GFS showed this as well.....I agree with delay in development the odds of this coming north increases dramatically.

FIM9-8 is supposed to replace the GFS FWIW.....I would not totally discount it.


I dont usually hype something unless for good reason. I smell something and it aint good...

Whatever happens with this, Rock, I very much appreciate your keeping me interested and upbeat about the possibility of much needed rain in Texas. If this can just sit and build until a weakness can come along and break the death ridge long enough to give it some poleward movement, we may have a chance.

Keep hyping and smelling... I'm rooting with you.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS staying consistent in showing development in the BOC come Thursday or Friday.



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By day 5 Saturday Evening it looks like its heading toward a landfall between Tampico and Brownsville..



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[TheStormExpert]

Track seems reminiscence of Hurricane Alex from 2010.

[Kludge]

0zGFS staying consistent in showing development in the BOC come Thursday or Friday.

The Trend is definitely our Friend.

[ROCK]

timing will be everything....you can see the ridging break down at 135hr and continues to do so....really close to Brownsville....its a creeping...





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[ROCK]

the 0Z NAVGEM showing it in the BOC sitting there getting stronger....at 132hr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_23.png

this could really be a huge storm....very rare to see the NAVGEM showing a 996mb....

150hr on the move north...this is the delay that would be worrisome.....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_26.png

[ROCK]

0Z NAVGEM at 168hr and I mentioned the delay it had down in the BOC and why it was concerning....



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[AdamFirst]

10%/60%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE THURSDAY WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[PTrackerLA]

850mb loop on 00z NAVGEM is particularly concerning. With the northward shift of the GFS I wouldn't totally discount it IMO.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091000/navgem_z850_vort_watl.html

[Rgv20]

I have my doubts of this future system been a LA or Mid to Upper Texas Coast threat....0zGFS Ensemble Means keep enough ridging just like the operational run to bend this future TC to the NW. As of now my landfall prediction would be anywhere from Veracruz to Brownsville. By the looks of it tho, this is going to be a pretty large Tropical System.



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[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Members are tightly cluster thru 96 hours in the BOC.....All those red numbers represent areas of Low Pressure.



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By 120 hours the GFS Ensemble Members are a bit south of the Operational GFS.



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[catskillfire51]

If Gabrielle reforms off the east coast again will that have an effect on the high pushing into the gulf?

[ROCK]

yes they are RVG....the 12Z ensembles were way north though...any delay in formation or if its sits in the BOC for awhile means those short waves are going to break down that ridge...

[perk]

yes they are RVG....the 12Z ensembles were way north though...any delay in formation or if its sits in the BOC for awhile means those short waves are going to break down that ridge...

Looking at the 06Z GFS i see what you mean Rock about timing.