ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

It won't have an eye at 55 knots, but an eye-like feature can start to form - it's happened many times...

P.S. I'm rooting for the record - we've gone this far...

[SeGaBob]

It won't have an eye at 55 knots, but an eye-like feature can start to form - it's happened many times...

P.S. I'm rooting for the record - we've gone this far...

Yeah I am too... It needs to stop intensifying until tomorrow afternoon and then I won't mind if it strengthened into a cat 5 for us to watch spin around without affecting anyone.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible image

[CrazyC83]

Based on that developing eyewall, I would go with 60 kt personally.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on that developing eyewall, I would go with 60 kt personally.

yeah probably pretty close to that

[CrazyC83]

10/1200 UTC 14.5N 27.4W T3.5/3.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

[RL3AO]

I'm measuring a 0.95 banding, which is still DT3.5

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am not doing a full update, but looking at the microwave image, it seems RI is a possibility. I wish we had more images for visible and IR than one every few hours...highly annoying. Since the microwave image is from 6 am EDT, I will use the 5 am advisory with winds of 55 knots. I can see an increase of 25 to 30 knots potentially happening within the next 24 hours. That would put the intensity of Humberto at 80 to 85 knots by tomorrow morning. Given a 6 to 8 hour delay between the sign and start of RI (seems to be the usual thing), it should start strengthening again between 12 pm EDT and 2 pm EDT.

And now that I've said that, I probably just secured the record for this hurricane season

[WeatherGuesser]

We're Number Two! We're Number Two!!

Or are we?

Diana '84 was declared on September 10, but I haven't been able to find a time so far.

Edit:

Just found this .... DIANA/Date:1984/9/10/1200Z/Latitude:30.500/Longitude:-80.000/Wind:65/Central Pressure:991/Category:Hurricane - Category 1

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 27.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Read 11 AM discussion here

[tolakram]

14:45Z

[euro6208]

don't know if i want the record broken or not but it looks like dry air has increased and migrated further south near humberto...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Angferba]

Hourly images of the area here.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/afrika.html

Latest one.

http://i.imgur.com/XriKdgh.jpg

[Hammy]

don't know if i want the record broken or not but it looks like dry air has increased and migrated further south near humberto...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309101030.GIF

Convection is indeed rapidly weakening. On top of that if you watch the high clouds it looks like there may be some mid-level shear coming in from the north. I had some hope last night but I'm back to thinking this will not make it to hurricane intensity, and certainly not before the record as its looking worse by the hour.

above is personal opinion and not official.

[Frank2]

This reminds me of last week's almost-perfect baseball game that was ruined in the ninth inning with 2 outs and 2 strikes when the batter hit a single (lol)...

So close - we'll see (lol)...

Frank

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like it's wrapping up to me. It has a good moisture envelope around the core so dry air is not a big issue. I'm thinking we will see a hurricane by tonight or overnight and fall just short of the record, but there's a possibility we could break it, it'll be close.

[CrazyC83]

Due to adjustments of advisory times and operational slowness to the best track, to break the record, it needs to probably remain a tropical storm at least into tomorrow evening.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Humberto

[tolakram]

I'm not seeing any significant analyzed shear or dryness. Doesn't mean it's not there, but I can't find it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

[Frank2]

Looks healthy but it also still looks like a TS - due to location no recon available so any upgrade is going to be based on what the satellite meteorologist is seeing...