ATL: INGRID - Models

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ATL: INGRID - Models

#1 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:23 am

Post model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:29 am

First plots.

WHXX01 KWBC 101522
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1522 UTC TUE SEP 10 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130910 1200 130911 0000 130911 1200 130912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 86.0W 18.7N 87.8W 19.3N 89.9W 19.8N 91.8W
BAMD 18.0N 86.0W 18.3N 87.3W 18.8N 88.8W 19.3N 90.3W
BAMM 18.0N 86.0W 18.5N 87.6W 19.0N 89.3W 19.5N 91.1W
LBAR 18.0N 86.0W 18.4N 87.4W 19.2N 89.3W 20.3N 91.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130912 1200 130913 1200 130914 1200 130915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 93.8W 19.8N 97.2W 19.2N 100.1W 18.7N 102.2W
BAMD 19.8N 91.8W 20.5N 94.3W 21.1N 96.7W 21.8N 99.3W
BAMM 19.9N 93.0W 20.0N 96.1W 19.8N 99.0W 19.5N 101.2W
LBAR 21.5N 92.9W 23.9N 95.6W 26.1N 96.9W 28.3N 97.3W
SHIP 46KTS 59KTS 67KTS 71KTS
DSHP 39KTS 52KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 84.7W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 83.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#3 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:35 am

71knts....is not too shabby....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:58 am

12z GFS at 87 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#5 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:09 am

12Z GFS vorticity pretty spread out.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#6 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:17 am

12Z hitting Brownsville.... from the south...also the ridge folds up to open up the coast...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_44.png


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_44.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_44.png
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#7 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:18 am

Landfall just south of Brownsville by Sunday Evening.....Heavy rains spreading to much of Texas! :D

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#8 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:22 am

tolakram wrote:12Z GFS vorticity pretty spread out.

[img]http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/6008/v4wz.jpg


This maybe the case where such a big and broad area of low pressure has trouble consolidating...On the flip side this would mean a pretty big and wet system, good news for us in Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#9 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:24 am

Rgv20 wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z GFS vorticity pretty spread out.

[img]http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/6008/v4wz.jpg


This maybe the case where such a big and broad area of low pressure has trouble consolidating...On the flip side this would mean a pretty big and wet system, good news for us in Texas.


Definitely a possibility ... a large, slop-gyre type system. That may be the best for us in Texas in providing generous rains without the damaging wind part.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#10 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:26 am

Here is a look at the 12z GFS forecast for total precipitation through the next 7 days:
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#11 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:29 am

Wow talk about drought relief for Texas in the 12z GFS. Hoping this one pans out for our neighbors to the south and west!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#12 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:30 am

:uarrow: might be a large Hurricane...if the conditions aloft are right...potential is there...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#13 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:37 am

ROCK wrote::uarrow: might be a large Hurricane...if the conditions aloft are right...potential is there...


Interesting you mention a large hurricane. They take longer to intensify, but they are capable of rapid intensification. Think Katrina.

I would not rule out Texas getting hit by this storm. Most models have not been good with where the storms go.
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#14 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:54 am

I'm shocked that the GFS is showing South Texas. I was thinking Mexico. Rock, you mentioned "the ridge folding to open up the coast". Any possibility this could make it's way even further up let's say Corpus area?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#15 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:56 am

120hr NAVGEM....more north than before...a VERY large system...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#16 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:01 pm

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very large.. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#17 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:04 pm

bigger than IKE?? holy crap....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_25.png

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#18 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:10 pm

LA folks? might want to call your NWS office in NO.... :lol:

NAVGEM now in Central GOM...takes up the entire GOM


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#19 Postby lester » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:10 pm

ROCK wrote:bigger than IKE?? holy ***....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_25.png

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Wow

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#20 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:11 pm

NAVGEM says ridge? what ridge? :lol:

maybe just maybe some NGOMERS will take notice... :D
Last edited by ROCK on Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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