ATL: INGRID - Models

[stormlover2013]

I'm saying la-Mexico, I feel that's to Far East but hey you never know.

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS Ensembles are pretty tightly clustered through 120 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013091012/gfs-ens_lowlocs_watl_11.png

[ROCK]

NAVGEM has the short wave eating up that ridge for breakfast....actually think that is a 2nd short wave swinging thru that finishes it off. Interesting run for sure...

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensembles thru 120hrs are in pretty good agreement...The Ensemble mean is just NE of Tampico, at this point the most likely landfall location would be between Tampico and Brownsville.



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[ROCK]

12z GFS Ensembles are pretty tightly clustered through 120 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013091012/gfs-ens_lowlocs_watl_11.png

they are creeping up the coast....this is Sept almost mid-Sept not June or July. Short waves do a little more damage this time of year. IE NAVGEM east run...

[ROCK]

12Z CMC..buries it in the BOC...thats like 15 runs in a row for that model...lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_23.png

[South Texas Storms]

12zGFS Ensembles thru 120hrs are in pretty good agreement...The Ensemble mean is just NE of Tampico, at this point the most likely landfall location would be between Tampico and Brownsville.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/6397/6p2x.png

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I agree with you on that Rgv. I think this system could be pretty similar to TS Hermine in 2010.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2010)

[HouTXmetro]

Your right Rock, I bet that NAVGEM run gets the board jumping!
How did the NAVGEM perform with other systems this year?

[ROCK]

06Z- FIM9 15KM skirts the coast....

0Z- FIM8 30KM from last night creeping up the coast....


http://fim.noaa.gov

[tolakram]

Out a little further the GFS ensemble gets interesting. I have no experience reading these ensemble plots but it sure appears to approach and then skirt the coast moving north.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Wx_Warrior]

Never been a fan of FIM, NAVGEM

[Wx_Warrior]

All depends on when H moves out, sunday or monday.

[ROCK]

yes they GFS ensembles do hug the coast....the FIMs show this as well...

We need the stubborn EURO to get on board with genesis because it does good forecasting the down stream environment.

[cycloneye]

Out a little further the GFS ensemble gets interesting. I have no experience reading these ensemble plots but it sure appears to approach and then skirt the coast moving north.

http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/456/4lbd.png

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What I know about this graphic is the small red numbers are low pressures.

[Wx_Warrior]

FIM and NAVGEM? Come on! LOL

[ROCK]

FIM is supposed to replace the GFS at some point...it pretty much hugs the GFS anyway. The NAVGEM has been upgraded but that odd ball run does look way east...need more runs / other models to show that before I bite...

[Portastorm]

FIM and NAVGEM? Come on! LOL

Why are you laughing about the FIM ... a model which got Irene right three days out? I've read a fair amount of information online which suggests the FIM is nothing to sneeze at.

[HouTXmetro]

Where can I fine the FIM

[ROCK]

Where can I fine the FIM

http://fim.noaa.gov/

click FIM9 or FIM8, click on W Atlantic, click on loop of 10M winds...thats what I look at anyway....

[tolakram]

12Z Euro already north of previous run, still well south in the BOC. 72 hours showing high pressure over north central Mexico.