ATL: INGRID - Models

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF has a 1005mb low in 72 hours Friday Morning in the Southern BOC around 20N 94W.

[ROCK]

finally the EURO sniffs out genesis...I thought it had fixed itself with Humberto...

[Rgv20]

Out a little further the GFS ensemble gets interesting. I have no experience reading these ensemble plots but it sure appears to approach and then skirt the coast moving north.

[img]http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/456/4lbd.png

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at each individual Ensemble members it looks like the ones that take this to the Mid and Upper Texas Coast the low consolidates in the NW tip of the Yucatan. The consensus is for these area of low pressure to start getting its act together in the BOC tho..

[Dean4Storms]

That 12z NAVGEM run can kiss my Crimson Posterior!

[Rgv20]

By 96hrs 12zECMWF has a 1003mb low very near Veracruz....850mb Vorticity very elongated just of the coast from Tampico all the way down to Veracruz.

[ROCK]

I knew that run would bring you out of the darkness from the Global Model Discussion thread......

point with the 12Z GFS ensembles is they were tightly clustered prior to this run....now they are spread out some....

looks like the EURO shows the ridging destroyed but not a deep enough system to take it....

[tolakram]

120 hours, low moving north / north west, away from the coast. I'm not kidding.

[stormlover2013]

tolokram is hyping things up i bet lol

[Rgv20]

120 hours, low moving north / north west, away from the coast. I'm not kidding.

Indeed 1003Mb low due east of Tampico..

[tolakram]

If it stays in that direction it still hits Mexico, just a lot further north than last run, much closer to Brownsville

[tolakram]

144H, sharp left into Mexico.

[Rgv20]

Well it looks like a fun work week ahead weather wise! I'm not going to be able to get any work done!

[ROCK]

finally the EURO is latching on to the others.....now we watch for a trend...does it keep creeping up the coast? or does it stop at Brownsville? Brownsville would be better for drought concerns....

[tolakram]

GFS has north bias, Euro has south bias, right? I figure Brownsville might be in play for this system, hopefully as a weak storm. Really looks like we'll only know for sure after 93 moves back into water, in my opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormlover2013]

La-Mexico is what I would say right now, all depends where the LLC forms and etc...

[cycloneye]

18z guidance.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC TUE SEP 10 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130910 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130910 1800 130911 0600 130911 1800 130912 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 86.1W 18.6N 87.9W 19.4N 89.9W 19.7N 91.8W
BAMD 18.0N 86.1W 18.4N 87.5W 19.0N 89.0W 19.6N 90.5W
BAMM 18.0N 86.1W 18.5N 87.7W 19.2N 89.5W 19.6N 91.2W
LBAR 18.0N 86.1W 18.3N 87.3W 19.2N 89.0W 20.3N 90.8W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 26KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130912 1800 130913 1800 130914 1800 130915 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 93.6W 19.6N 96.6W 19.2N 99.2W 19.1N 101.0W
BAMD 20.1N 91.9W 20.8N 94.2W 21.6N 96.8W 22.6N 99.6W
BAMM 20.0N 93.0W 20.2N 95.8W 20.1N 98.5W 20.3N 100.5W
LBAR 21.5N 92.3W 23.8N 94.8W 25.8N 96.1W 28.1N 96.7W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 67KTS 71KTS
DSHP 41KTS 52KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 86.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 85.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 84.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Wx_Warrior]

finally the EURO is latching on to the others.....now we watch for a trend...does it keep creeping up the coast? or does it stop at Brownsville? Brownsville would be better for drought concerns....

It would do wonders. Parts need it really bad.

[Portastorm]

finally the EURO is latching on to the others.....now we watch for a trend...does it keep creeping up the coast? or does it stop at Brownsville? Brownsville would be better for drought concerns....

It would do wonders. Parts need it really bad.

Agreed ... a big, sloppy system coming in around Brownsville and then moving northwest into the state would do wonders for our drought.

[stormlover2013]

i think stronger system would take a more northern track

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET at 120hrs has the low very near of the 12zECMWF, near Tampico.