ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Earlier I was wondering about the 130pm intensity supporting a post-analysis increase referred to the pre-dawn intensity, when it looked stronger. I must say I'm quite shocked though that 60mph winds were found right now given how heavily sheared Gabrielle is. Now I'm quite curious to see what they find to the northeast of the center.

[Riptide]

Earlier I was wondering about the 130pm intensity supporting a post-analysis increase referred to the pre-dawn intensity, when it looked stronger. I must say I'm quite shocked though that 60mph winds were found right now given how heavily sheared Gabrielle is.

This may be partly caused by Gabrielle's proximity to the high pressure ridge and the resulting gradient; just speculation tho.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Any chance Gabby hits New England? Not even the center but any part of the storm. Could use a nice TS up here

[abajan]

Whatever the maximum sustained winds really are, Bermuda has been experiencing TS force winds for the past hour or so. Interestingly enough, no rain as yet though:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Source: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TXKF.html

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loops:





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[ozonepete]

Convection starting to blow up over the center now since it's moving into a low shear environment.

[brunota2003]

Looks like it'll be a direct hit on Bermuda! Well, at least we'll have an accurate position and pressure fix.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
800 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA AS GABRIELLE
APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 64.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 319N, 649W, 50, 1004, TS

[HurricaneBelle]

Really sheared now from the SW, looks like Bermuda missed out on the heaviest squalls despite the center passing pretty much overhead.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...GABRIELLE SLOWS AS IT NEARS BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE HAS BECOME DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS EVENING...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. RADAR IMAGES FROM BERMUDA HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN
TRACKING THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM THIS EVENING. THE RADAR DATA
SHOW THAT GABRIELLE HAS DECELERATED AND THAT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT...WHICH IS
BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF 35
TO 45 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT WEATHER STATIONS ON BERMUDA. ANOTHER
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING
THE TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/7 KT. GABRIELLE SHOULD TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF
FLORIDA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
GABRIELLE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER BUT WITHIN
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND
THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...
GABRIELLE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 32.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 32.8N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 33.6N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 34.5N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 36.3N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 44.5N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 54.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...GABRIELLE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 65.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED STATION AT
COMMISSIONERS POINT ON BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF
47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA. IN ADDITION...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
800 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...GABRIELLE MEANDERING JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 65.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...GABRIELLE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 65.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...GABRIELLE A LITTLE WEAKER...
...MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 66.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

11/2345 UTC 33.0N 66.8W TOO WEAK GABRIELLE -- Atlantic

[TheStormExpert]

11/2345 UTC 33.0N 66.8W TOO WEAK GABRIELLE -- Atlantic

Does this mean it's no longer a Tropical Cyclone?

[HURAKAN]

11/2345 UTC 33.0N 66.8W TOO WEAK GABRIELLE -- Atlantic

Does this mean it's no longer a Tropical Cyclone?

not necessarily, simply that the convective structure is lacking and/or very disorganized

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 67.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE HAS DISSIPATED
AGAIN THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE CYCLONE AS A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR ONE SMALL THUNDERSTORM THAT HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
AND BASED ON THESE DATA THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AS GABRIELLE INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING AND SHOULD ALSO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED
BY A FRONT OVER NOVA SCOTIA SHORTLY THEREAFTER...HOWEVER A 72-HOUR
POINT WAS PROVIDED ONCE AGAIN FOR FORECAST CONTINUITY. WITH THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
THAT GABRIELLE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY OR
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO.

GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AFTER 24 HOURS...GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 33.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 33.7N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 35.7N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 39.4N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 44.4N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0000Z 54.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Extratropical94]

...LITTLE CHANGE IN GABRIELLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 67.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES