ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[hipshot]

Looking at the posted forecasted track, it looks like it will head due west around 25N. What happens if it continues
on that path which looks like it heads to northern Florida?

[ozonepete]

Looking at the posted forecasted track, it looks like it will head due west around 25N. What happens if it continues
on that path which looks like it heads to northern Florida?

No way of knowing at all. Way too far out in time.

[ozonepete]

So then this means that Humberto could stop just 4 mph before hurricane strength?!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ha ha anything's possible but D-MAX hasn't even started yet.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loop:



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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The eye is becoming much better defined on satellite but core convection is very weak. One good DMAX should fix this. It better do it quick during DMAX though, it has until the 5am AST advisory.

[HURAKAN]

infrared comparison

[HURAKAN]

the core is looking less organized on this microwave image

[TJRE]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

This storm IMO is definitely in some ways living up to what the main issues have been this season so far. DRY/STABLE AIR & WIND SHEAR.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.

[tolakram]

While this looks like attack of the 2013's I can't help but remember tat the most recent run of the Euro still shows a fairly strong system in 24 to 48 hours. We shall see. A bust would be most interesting, hard not to root for one.

[WeatherGuesser]

Y'all tryin' to say it appears to be fallin' apart?

[TheStormExpert]

Oh boy.

http://oi42.tinypic.com/wrlswo.jpg

What do you mean by "Oh boy"?

[hurricanes1234]

Y'all tryin' to say it appears to be fallin' apart?

Yes, basically. I am still in shock, but then again, it's 2013 in ALL basins. Would be sad if this was pulling an Erin at this advanced stage of tropical storm strength.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Oh boy.

http://oi42.tinypic.com/wrlswo.jpg

What do you mean by "Oh boy"?

Maybe he means, "It looks like dry air is wrapping into the center, and this might be falling apart rather quickly. Oh boy."

[ozonepete]

Oh boy.

A couple of things. The arc of clouds to the west and north show a shield of the circulation envelope that will prevent it from ingesting any more dry air than it has, and it's not clear at all how much it has ingested since it is at DMIN. The inflow from the south and east is quite moist.

It lost symmetry today as it started to recurve but seems to be regaining very good banding and symmetry again.

An eye-feature is still apparent at low to mid-levels.

Luis you may get your annular hurricane after all.

[hurricanes1234]

Are you sure? How do you know if an annular hurricane is on the way?

[ozonepete]

Are you sure? How do you know if an annular hurricane is on the way?

Don't at all. It was a partial joke, but look at the next post I'm going to do.

[ozonepete]

Multiple concentric convective bands. You could easily argue that the later image looks more like a hurricane than the first one. The amount of convection at the core is not the only influence and factor in whether a TC is a hurricane. Structure is very important. It's a real shame we can't get recon there...



CIMSS ADT numbers going up again btw.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Multiple concentric convective bands. You could easily argue that the later image looks more like a hurricane than the first one. The amount of convection at the core is not the only influence and factor in whether a TC is a hurricane. Structure is very important. It's a real shame we can't get recon there...

NHC is heavily reliant on satellite intensity estimates for systems in the East Atlantic though and the strength of a system -- at least according to the Dvorak technique -- is determined a good deal by the amount of central convection. I do agree it's borderline right now. Hopefully DMAX fixes it, I want to see a hurricane sometime soon.