ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

NHC is heavily reliant on satellite intensity estimates for systems in the East Atlantic though and the strength of a system -- at least according to the Dvorak technique -- is determined a good deal by the amount of central convection. I do agree it's borderline right now. Hopefully DMAX fixes it, I want to see a hurricane sometime soon.

Be careful, my friend T13. ADT analysis uses banding a lot as well. A very strong, large CDO is often present in tropical storms and may mean little in terms of wind - Dvorak analysis accounts for this. An eye-feature and symmetry are critical.

[ozonepete]

Also, it sure looks like convection is wrapping around the eye now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

11/0000 UTC 14.9N 28.2W T3.5/3.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[galaxy401]

Maybe Humberto will tie the record?

[abajan]

I fully expect the old record to remain intact. I just don't see it going through DMAX without gaining just 4 mph! For all we know, it may already be a hurricane.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Record chase continues...
AL, 09, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 151N, 283W, 60, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30,

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting that there has not been a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin in over 10 months! Sandy was the last hurricane in this basin back in October 2012.

[Hammy]

I fully expect the old record to remain intact. I just don't see it going through DMAX without gaining just 4 mph! For all we know, it may already be a hurricane.

Looking likely, I see fresh convection developing so it may very well be finally mixing it out.

[fci]

Looking at the posted forecasted track, it looks like it will head due west around 25N. What happens if it continues
on that path which looks like it heads to northern Florida?

I think that solution would unprecedented and would require a rock solid blocking high across the entire basin.
If the storm stays together it should feel any weakness at all and follow it north.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Fuller lines now out:
AL, 09, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 151N, 283W, 60, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 50, 80, 1013, 450, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
AL, 09, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 151N, 283W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1013, 450, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
Pressure revised upward.

[Hammy]

Fuller lines now out:
AL, 09, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 151N, 283W, 60, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 50, 80, 1013, 450, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
AL, 09, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 151N, 283W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1013, 450, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
Pressure revised upward.

out of curiousity, why have they had two lines for each time on recent positions?

[RL3AO]

While convection is weaker, it looks like a stronger system. SSD went with 9/10 banding. One could argue that it appears to wrap more than 1.0 around the eye. However, I don't think EIR allows this with Dvorak so you must go to the eye pattern which is kinda tough in this stage.

[RL3AO]

Fuller lines now out:
AL, 09, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 151N, 283W, 60, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 50, 80, 1013, 450, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
AL, 09, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 151N, 283W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1013, 450, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
Pressure revised upward.

out of curiousity, why have they had two lines for each time on recent positions?

First line tells you how far 34 knot winds extend, hence the 34 next to the 995, TS and the second line tells you how far 50kt winds extend. If it becomes a hurricane, a third line will tell you how far 65kt winds extend in the four quadrants.

[HurriGuy]

Honestly, looks like it has wrapped nicely the last couple of frames. Good shield on that dry air too. I too expect no broken record. Each frame is looking better now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The latest wind field would decode to:

The radius of 50 knot (58 mph | 93 km/h | 26 m/s) winds is:
50 nautical miles (58 miles | 93 kilometers) in the northeast quadrant.
40 nautical miles (46 miles | 74 kilometers) in the southeast quadrant.
30 nautical miles (35 miles | 56 kilometers) in the southwest quadrant.
40 nautical miles (46 miles | 74 kilometers) in the northwest quadrant.

The radius of 34 knot (39 mph | 63 km/h | 17 m/s) winds is:
100 nautical miles (115 miles | 185 kilometers) in the northeast quadrant.
80 nautical miles (92 miles | 148 kilometers) in the southeast quadrant.
50 nautical miles (58 miles | 93 kilometers) in the southwest quadrant.
80 nautical miles (92 miles | 148 kilometers) in the northwest quadrant.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe an inner core measurement of 995mb? It's a pretty high ambient pressure so that would support 60 kt well. It looks to be close to, but not quite, a hurricane. Also it may be consolidating and becoming smaller?

[TJRE]

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I have a funny feeling that the eye feature is starting to fill in -cloud over-

lets see what the next few frames dish out

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/index.htm

rammb look in

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/




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[hurricanes1234]

Didn't expect the pressure to raise 2 mbar when it is forecast to intensify. Will this be the start of a downward trend? I would say a 50% chance yes. Thoughts, anyone?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bahamaswx]

Beautiful outflow and banding in some of those shots from earlier.

[hurricanes1234]

Beautiful outflow and banding in some of those shots from earlier.

This may be a silly question, but why, then, did the pressure rise to 995 mbar? I can't tell if it's weakening or strengthening.