WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

[Extratropical94]

Another one in the Pacific...
97WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-186N-1499E

[Meow]

Now a tropical depression with a gale warning. It may become a tropical storm within 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 11 September 2013

<Analyses at 11/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°00'(19.0°)
E150°00'(150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1010hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°00'(21.0°)
E146°10'(146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Typhoon Hunter]

So I see they've changed invest numbers for what is essentially the same disturbance just to confuse everyone! Carrying on the conversation from the 95W thread, shouldn't be too long before we have Man-yi if latest models are to be believed.

[Meow]

It may be the 18th named storm in the northwest Pacific. Will it become the third official typhoon in 2013?

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8N 149.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 102156Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CENTRALLY LOCATED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS FAIRLY ELONGATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10
TO 20 KTS) WITH INCREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Even NWS Guam getting confused by this invest number changing silliness!

DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO NORTH OF THE
MARIANAS AROUND 20N...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed, I was really confused this morning on if it was 95 or 97. Took me a minute of clicking between sat shots to realize what I was looking at.

So I think I got it right when making this video today.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NARnZZ2Nq9A[/youtube]

[Extratropical94]

JTWC TCFA issued:



FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 147.8E TO 22.0N 142.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
111330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
146.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111157Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
HOWEVER, A 110220Z OCEANSAT IMAGE AND A 111200Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS (10 TO
15 KNOTS) AND STRONGER PERIPHERAL WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS, TYPICAL
OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
LACK OF DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS)
AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ENHANCED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER THE
CENTER AND TWO LARGE TUTT CELLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[Extratropical94]

TXPQ26 KNES 111416
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 11/1332Z

C. 19.7N

D. 148.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LARGE AND ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION POSSESSES BANDING IN
EXCESS OF 2/10 WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER. METOP MHS DATA
BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z WAS AMBIGUOUS AS TO THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WHILE METOP SCATTEROMETER DATA HINTS AT AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM NE TO SW. DT...MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[euro6208]

kinda late...

522
WWMY80 PGUM 110801
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
601 PM CHST WED SEP 11 2013

GUZ003>005-112300-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-
601 PM CHST WED SEP 11 2013

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CNMI. THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED AT ABOUT 19N AND 147E.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALSO...SEA
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ROUGH AND CHOPPY WITH COMBINED SEAS RANGING
FROM 6 TO 8 FEET.

PEOPLE LIVING ON THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS OF PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF ADVERSE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. PEOPLE IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE ALERT AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS.

$$

SIMPSON/EDSON

[euro6208]

EURO has this hitting japan while GFS aims for the southern japanese islands and taiwan...huge disparity between the two...one thing they agree on is that this will be a powerful typhoon!

09/11/13 1200Z 97W INVEST 1005mb 20 kts...

[supercane4867]

I have no idea why GFS has this giant heading straight westward into Taiwan as showing absolutely no ridging to its north



Though most other models make a direct hit for Japan, which seems reasonable

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah GFS backed off its extremely westerly solution slightly in 18Z however NAVGEM has also been showing a ridge building over Korea and preventing a traditional recurve (a less extreme version of what GFS was showing run after run.) My money's on quite a significant impact on the Japanese home islands.

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMA model I just took a gander out has a intense storm heading towards Shikoku and then it stops in its tracks on monday when the ridge builds in. soon after does a slower version of GFS and NAVGEM back tracking south west along the coastline.

I hate these kind of storms. They are slow moving big rain makers and just a pain to predict.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just put together my thoughts at this time. Which is uncertain, but I explain why so uncertain.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSMo0QpWBNA[/youtube]

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 120311
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 12/0232Z

C. 21.7N

D. 146.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BROKEN OUTER BAND. MET=1.5. FT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET AS DT IS NOT CLEAR..

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ


dvorak has increased to 1.5= 25 knots...an upgrade is imminent!

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
146.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON
DEPRESSION WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES, WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 120024Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS REMAIN LOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, BUT
WITHIN THE EXTENDED PERIPHERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION, WIND SPEEDS
REMAIN BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC REMAINS FAIRLY
ELONGATED WITHIN THE EAST-WEST AXIS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC HAS BEEN
CREATING A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND HAS
BEEN HINDERING THE OUTFLOW WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT LOW
TO MODERATE LEVELS (05 TO 15 KNOTS) WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[RobWESTPACWX]

ASCAT imagery shows 35kt winds. (well removed from the center though)



Looking at the JMA model as well. A previous observation from here in Tokyo they often base wrng #1 off the model, this is what they might have for the track when they upgrade it.

[euro6208]

97WINVEST.20kts-1005mb-211N-1450E

[supercane4867]

WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1318 MAN-YI (1318) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 21.0N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 23.3N 141.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 27.3N 137.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 151800UTC 33.5N 140.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =