ATL: INGRID - Models

[South Texas Storms]

159hr....not sure if you consider this inland...


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_54.png

It barely moves for 6 days? I don't know about that...

[ROCK]

yeah this run is jacked.....still there on the coast at 168hr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_57.png

177hr still there....FAIL

[Wx_Warrior]

what a mess LOL gfs is (not) good for something

[PTrackerLA]

I've seen the GFS do this time and time again. Stall a storm for a ridiculously long amount of time only to abandon the prolonged stall the following day. I'd expect the GFS to pick out a solution in the next couple of days I think it's confused right now . With that being said you can see looking at the 850mb vorticity that something does make landfall but then seems to be absorbed into an even larger low pressure/gyre. Very strange.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091100/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html

[LaBreeze]

Is the GFS saying that the ridging stays strong and moves the system into Mexico?

[ROCK]

well the 0Z NAVGEM is rolling....but I will leave it for the night crew to take over....

[ROCK]

Is the GFS saying that the ridging stays strong and moves the system into Mexico?

the GFS keeps it down there for a week....dont see that happening at all....

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...Only 1 need to see Rocky....see ya tomorrow! Fun week.

[ROCK]

Ok...I couldn't resist...168 hr NAVGEM has 93 crawling up the coast of MX....there I am done

Btw- the CMC just keeps it down there....hasn't changed a bit

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_34.png

[ROCK]

180 NAV....983mb moving north now...ridge has been destroyed by the Death Star....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_34.png

[Wx_Warrior]

Doing this for ROCK only! I AM A EURO HUGGER!!!!

0z NAVGEM 150H (ridge opens)



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[Wx_Warrior]

Cant believe that ROCK loves the NAVGem. ;o(

[ROCK]

Thanks Warrior.... Bring on the euro..I doubt it has changed any

[Wx_Warrior]

taking a power nap! hope I make it LOL

[PTrackerLA]

NAVGEM almost seems to move it to the NE the last few frames. Scary opening in high on this run allowing poleward motion. Just the NAVGEM though right?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091100/navgem_z500_vort_watl.html

[LaBreeze]

NAVGEM almost seems to move it to the NE the last few frames. Scary opening in high on this run allowing poleward motion. Just the NAVGEM though right?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091100/navgem_z500_vort_watl.html

Yep, PTrackerLA, I see the same thing on the last few frames. Do you think that the high will have an opening like that? I know it's just one run - is the NAVGEM fairly unreliable?

[Alyono]

what a mess LOL gfs is (not) good for something

why is this GFS bad... ebcause it doesn't hit Texas?

This has always been a likely Mexico storm, GFS not withstanding

[caneman]

what a mess LOL gfs is (not) good for something

why is this GFS bad... ebcause it doesn't hit Texas?

This has always been a likely Mexico storm, GFS not withstanding

Thanks Alyono. Glad a Met said it. Little too much hype going on here. Looks like the models burying it in Mexico thus far look to be right looking at Satellite this morning.

[ninel conde]

pattern persistence. models may show odd solutions but the south BOC is the favorable place in the atlantic this year.

[Alyono]

Just looked at 5 day precip totals

6Z GFS is going for nearly 30 inches of rain in the Tampico area