ATL: INGRID - Models
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ninel conde
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
well last nights EURO / FIM9 / FIM8 buried 93 into MX and today the 06Z GFS buries it into MX......the only guidance I have seen that doesn bury it into MX is the 06Z NAVGEM...and that aint saying much... 
but got to go with the guidance that is in front of us at the moment.....
but got to go with the guidance that is in front of us at the moment.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
caneman wrote:Alyono wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:what a mess LOL gfs is (not) good for something
why is this GFS bad... ebcause it doesn't hit Texas?
This has always been a likely Mexico storm, GFS not withstanding
Thanks Alyono. Glad a Met said it. Little too much hype going on here. Looks like the models burying it in Mexico thus far look to be right looking at Satellite this morning.
what hype? I think last nights model runs were a fun time on the board. Its not all informational at 1am in the morning....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Alyono wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:what a mess LOL gfs is (not) good for something
why is this GFS bad... ebcause it doesn't hit Texas?
This has always been a likely Mexico storm, GFS not withstanding
because that 12Z GFS kept it in the BOC for 7 days!! even us ametuers know that aint happening unless pigs can fly...
but I see the 06z looks more believable...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
6Z GFS ensembles..some spread around 144hr...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013091106/gfs-ens_lowlocs_watl_13.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013091106/gfs-ens_lowlocs_watl_13.png
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Reason: added URL tags
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Please use the URL tags. Click the button above, then paste the link between the tags.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
I think the models are getting a better handle on that SW swinging thru and what it does to the ridge.....we will have to see what the models do today as it looks like 93L is not wasting any time getting organized...
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South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
FWIW, the 0z Euro Ensemble is pretty spread out from Tampico to Corpus in 144 hours.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!144!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013091100!!/
And the 0z UKMET is also a bit further north with it now showing a landfall north of Tampico.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
12z GFS is now running. Please shift north!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!144!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013091100!!/
And the 0z UKMET is also a bit further north with it now showing a landfall north of Tampico.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
12z GFS is now running. Please shift north!
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Rgv20
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6zGFS Ensemble Members are mostly a tad more north than the operational run with 93L by 120 hours.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0zECMWF Ensembles at 120 hours show 93L very close to the NE Mexican Coast between Tampico and Brownsville. By day 6 is like STS pointed out anywhere from Tampico to Corpus Christi.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0zECMWF Ensembles at 120 hours show 93L very close to the NE Mexican Coast between Tampico and Brownsville. By day 6 is like STS pointed out anywhere from Tampico to Corpus Christi.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Wx_Warrior
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stormlover2013
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
weak storm will do that, i mean something happens to develop first, models wont do alot unless something forms.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Well what a difference a few hours makes. Yesterday the GFS was indicating a potentially drought busting storm for southern Texas and today it would be lucky to make landfall north of Tampico. Ready for the first cold front at this point!
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
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Wx_Warrior
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Stormcenter
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Stormcenter wrote:Let's be honest here for a minute....none and I mean none of the models have anything to brag about so far this season. IMO
Very good point, Stormcenter. Even King Euro has shown blemishes.
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Re:
Stormcenter wrote:Let's be honest here for a minute....none and I mean none of the models have anything to brag about so far this season. IMO
Totally agree Stormcenter.
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