ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

11:15Z



from ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[Syx6sic]

It does look like a eye is trying to form in some the frames I have seen on sats this morning or it could be my eyes playing tricks on me

[RL3AO]

It has a banding eye feature. I'm not going to try to do a Dvorak analysis on that, but it does look like the banding feature is worth a +1.0.

[lilybeth]

Been really learning reading everyone's posts while following what is now the first hurricane of the season. Thankful for this place and the intelligent people who post here - both pro-met and amateurs alike.

[Syx6sic]

It has a banding eye feature. I'm not going to try to do a Dvorak analysis on that, but it does look like the banding feature is worth a +1.0.

That's good to see I am not having eye tricks this morning but I see in the track after going north some it does a west turn is the west turn going to keep going west after or recurve to go north then north east?

[lilybeth]

It has a banding eye feature. I'm not going to try to do a Dvorak analysis on that, but it does look like the banding feature is worth a +1.0.

That's good to see I am not having eye tricks this morning but I see in the track after going north some it does a west turn is the west turn going to keep going west after or recurve to go north then north east?

Where could the eye be located? Anyone have an idea?

[CrazyC83]

11/1145 UTC 16.2N 28.6W T4.5/4.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

[RL3AO]

Its very quickly becoming an full eye, instead of just a banding eye. Looks like a complete eye-wall has formed now.

[CrazyC83]

That data suggests a 75 kt current intensity, perhaps 80 kt depending on ADT and other analyses.

[tolakram]

Just completed it's full globe scan. A little distorted but at least you can see the entire storm.

11:45Z

[supercane4867]

Humberto appears to be rapidly intensifying

[RL3AO]

Humberto appears to be rapidly intensifying

Its intensifying. Lets not go throwing that phrase around when there is a lack of evidence that its true.

[RL3AO]

Quite the discussion from SSD.


F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BANDING TYPE EYE WHICH
LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE CENTER LOCATION. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE INSTANTANEOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. BANDING OF 12/1O IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY YIELDS A DT OF 4.0 BUT CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN B IN EIR IMAGERY
WHICH SUGGESTS A DT OF 5.0. DT IS SET TO 5.0 DUE TO CONFIDENCE IN CENTER
LOCATION. GIVEN THE CONFLICTING DTS THE FT IS BASED ON A MET OF 4.5. PT
IS ALSO 4.5.

[Macrocane]

It's intensifying but not rapidly IMO. So the record wasn't broken, good for Humberto.
Anyone else thinks this could pull a "Nadine"? models show a weird track with weakening and intensifying phases, doing loops, going south and north during several days.

[CrazyC83]

Based on discussions of 5.0, I would go with an 80 kt intensity right now.

[Hammy]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309110530.GIF

Eye now becoming visible on IR imagery. And Humberto may be starting to take advantage of the upper trough as an outflow channel given the high clouds to the north are starting to move east at a good clip.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 09, 2013091112, , BEST, 0, 163N, 290W, 65, 989, HU,

Officially on the BT reaches hurricane intensity at the exact moment Gustav did.

[Sanibel]

In my opinion Humberto didn't tie the record because the rebound I didn't expect should retroactively make that eye feature and CDO from yesterday show Humberto was near or at hurricane at the time. If I had a vote I'd say the record stands.

[CrazyC83]

In my opinion Humberto didn't tie the record because the rebound I didn't expect should retroactively make that eye feature and CDO from yesterday show Humberto was near or at hurricane at the time. If I had a vote I'd say the record stands.

Yeah, maybe they will make 0600Z or 0900Z the official upgrade. Although it didn't look like a hurricane at 0600Z.

[RL3AO]

Eye is starting to appear in IR. Continues to show signs of intensification. Still think 85 to 90kts isn't out of the question.