ATL: INGRID - Models

[stormlover2013]

initialization seems to be off, just don't see it forming that for south, I could be wrong though. What do you think rock?

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: I still like the NAVGEM run! just sayin

Rock, where do you think it will make landfall now? Still feeling a northern shift in the models soon?

[Portastorm]

Wow ... I can't believe you guys haven't picked up on the further north Euro trend, let alone 12 of the 16 12z GFS ensemble members showing a much more pronounced movement north of 93L. Everyone is too complacent around here, including me! I wouldn't have known outside of a friendly text from fellow S2Ker srainhoutx!

Oh wait, that's right ... 93L is going into Mexico and it's a done deal. Sorry. I forgot.

[Wx_Warrior]

Complacent or read where the NavGem is right? Danged if you do, danged if you don't.

Nothing really there right now, except something called 93L.

[Tireman4]

Wow ... I can't believe you guys haven't picked up on the further north Euro trend, let alone 12 of the 16 12z GFS ensemble members showing a much more pronounced movement north of 93L. Everyone is too complacent around here, including me! I wouldn't have known outside of a friendly text from fellow S2Ker srainhoutx!

Oh wait, that's right ... 93L is going into Mexico and it's a done deal. Sorry. I forgot.

You dang right Porta. Do not forget it. It is going to Mexico and that is all there is to it. Shoot.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow ... I can't believe you guys haven't picked up on the further north Euro trend, let alone 12 of the 16 12z GFS ensemble members showing a much more pronounced movement north of 93L. Everyone is too complacent around here, including me! I wouldn't have known outside of a friendly text from fellow S2Ker srainhoutx!

Oh wait, that's right ... 93L is going into Mexico and it's a done deal. Sorry. I forgot.

I don't know Porta, but I'm starting to lose hope with likely future Ingrid bringing us much drought relief. The past 3 runs of the GFS have just been awful, especially how good yesterday's runs were for us. If the models don't shift north after tomorrow's 12z runs, I think I may give up hope.

And today's 12z Euro run is forecasting rainfall totals less than .50 inch for Austin in the next 10 days. That's not much...

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble Members Means by 120hrs have 93L just East of Tampico.... I still think a landfall between Tampico and Brownsville is a good bet.



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[ROCK]

:uarrow: I still like the NAVGEM run! just sayin

Rock, where do you think it will make landfall now? Still feeling a northern shift in the models soon?

oh I am feeling it all right...

[ROCK]

you guys have seen nothing yet....wait for the 0Z's tonight...

[Wx_Warrior]

Can't wait! I think someone owes me a 6 pack from last year!!!???!!!

#0zModels

[Stormcenter]

Personally I wouldn't bet a penny that far out.

12zGFS Ensemble Members Means by 120hrs have 93L just East of Tampico.... I still think a landfall between Tampico and Brownsville is a good bet.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/2189/5gys.png

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[Wx_Warrior]

No bets, but I think he owes me from last year or year before! LOL.... Just don't think the NavGem is a good model.

[Tireman4]

Shoot, I would not bet on any model at anytime during this timeframe ( now to maybe Sunday). I am just sure on anything. Of course, I am a total amateur and know nothing.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z Euro Ensemble is still showing a spread from Tampico to Corpus in 120 hours. I'm thinking the models are not done shifting yet.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013091112!!/

[Wx_Warrior]

Looks like Ridge holds thru Sunday. We'll see.

[Portastorm]

Looks like Ridge holds thru Sunday. We'll see.

So ... you're discounting the ensemble spread from both the 12z GFS and 12z Euro, I guess. OK.

[South Texas Storms]

What are your thoughts on this right now Porta? Do you think the models aren't done shifting?

[Wx_Warrior]

Just what a few pro mets told me. IDK. I'll go with NavGem like several.

[ROCK]

here's the deal...I may not have all my marbles from lifting weights 5 days a week but I do know this.... Fort Worth NWS explained it best this am....the shortwave over Alaska is/was out of any good data range so the models didnt have a handle on the strength of the SW. SO we are still 4-5 days out and the strength of the ridge is in question in my mind, thus the bouncing around of the models. Will it collapse like the NAVGEM? did the NAVGEM just reset the trend? still a lot of questions....

FWIW- the EURO has never really locked on to a closed low at any resolution until today. And when it did today it took it more north than any run the past 4 days!!!! remember the EURO has always been left biased. something to chew on...

we wait on the 0Z's...

do you smell what I am cooking?

[Wx_Warrior]

Some things never change. Wait and see approach, and pay attention to what pro's say.