ATL: INGRID - Models

[ROCK]

no one posted the 18Z NAVGEM which is the same as the 12Z NAVGEM....I am disappointed... 144hr



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[ROCK]

almost a split in the ridge but it does retreat off the coast...allowing a northward pull...983MB on this run

[caneman]

That's about it for 18z GFS...Wait for the 0z and King EURO

Hmm, I missed the part where the NHC pronounced the Euro as King. PLease provide a link

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091118/navgem_mslpa_atl.html

NAVGEM really breaks down this ridge building pressure over Florida settling for a potential Texas landfall.

[caneman]

Don't think NAVGEM is a reliable model is it? I'm curious to see if the Northern part takes over.

[wxmann_91]

The 12z Euro Ensemble is still showing a spread from Tampico to Corpus in 120 hours. I'm thinking the models are not done shifting yet.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013091112!!/

Looks like the lowest mean SLP's are down in the BOC though? The shaded regions are some normalized SD... not sure exactly how to read the map though.

[HouGulf2011]

here's the deal...I may not have all my marbles from lifting weights 5 days a week but I do know this.... Fort Worth NWS explained it best this am....the shortwave over Alaska is/was out of any good data range so the models didnt have a handle on the strength of the SW. SO we are still 4-5 days out and the strength of the ridge is in question in my mind, thus the bouncing around of the models. Will it collapse like the NAVGEM? did the NAVGEM just reset the trend? still a lot of questions....

FWIW- the EURO has never really locked on to a closed low at any resolution until today. And when it did today it took it more north than any run the past 4 days!!!! remember the EURO has always been left biased. something to chew on...

we wait on the 0Z's...

do you smell what I am cooking?

Rock you have at least two marbles left! I appreciate you taking the time to provide the S2K readers (like me) the model runs, answering questions, and all the other information. I appreciate all that everyone in the S2K community providing their professional opinions and their time.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS is running....I am sooo excited...

[LaBreeze]

here's the deal...I may not have all my marbles from lifting weights 5 days a week but I do know this.... Fort Worth NWS explained it best this am....the shortwave over Alaska is/was out of any good data range so the models didnt have a handle on the strength of the SW. SO we are still 4-5 days out and the strength of the ridge is in question in my mind, thus the bouncing around of the models. Will it collapse like the NAVGEM? did the NAVGEM just reset the trend? still a lot of questions....

FWIW- the EURO has never really locked on to a closed low at any resolution until today. And when it did today it took it more north than any run the past 4 days!!!! remember the EURO has always been left biased. something to chew on...

we wait on the 0Z's...

do you smell what I am cooking?

Rock you have at least two marbles left! I appreciate you taking the time to provide the S2K readers (like me) the model runs, answering questions, and all the other information. I appreciate all that everyone in the S2K community providing their professional opinions and their time.

I totally agree with HouGulf -thank you for all of your time and effort (even though I know how much all of you enjoy doing this)

[ROCK]

27hr sitting in the BOC

45hr still in same place...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_16.png

[ROCK]

I hope this run is not like last nights 0Z....sat down there for 7 days...

[ROCK]

12hrs later still in same place....57hr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_20.png

massive trof dropping down the EC....wow...not enough to pick this up...but that is stout...

another 12 hours later.....69hr still in same place....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png

[South Texas Storms]

Idk Rock, it looks slightly further south than the 18z run so far. I doubt it makes it further north than Tampico this run, unless a big weakness develops over Texas.

[ROCK]

I dont know but its stuck down there...going on 3 days now....the record is 7 days on the 0Z run last night....

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_30.png

87hr ....there we go...moving finally...


99hr still stuck down there...after moving north some...moved a tad west...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_34.png

[South Texas Storms]

Is the shortwave coming? We need a break in the ridge over Texas soon so we can get this thing to move more poleward.

Edit: Nevermind. Onshore south of Tampico in 99 hours...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091200/gfs_z500_vort_watl_34.png

[ROCK]

almost been down there for 4 days now... oh brother.....

108 still off the coast of MX

[ROCK]

Is the shortwave coming? We need a break in the ridge over Texas soon so we can get this thing to move more poleward.

Edit: Nevermind. Onshore south of Tampico in 99 hours...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091200/gfs_z500_vort_watl_34.png

nah its off shore still if you look at the other map...barely

[South Texas Storms]

It's just gonna stay there though because no more weakness in the ridge is forecasted by the models. The GFS teased us again. What a joke.

[ROCK]

ridge collapses at 117hr....but its already inland....

ok....its going to hang out for 4 days...and then move inland righ as the ridge over Texas weakens......nice run GFS!!