ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Good little flare over the water: 19.5N 92.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif

[Extratropical94]

Pressure at this buoy is already down to 1008 mbars / 29.77 inches although the station is several hundred miles NW of Campeche, MX.



Pressure at the center is 1006 mbar.

AL, 93, 2013091206, , BEST, 0, 186N, 905W, 25, 1006, DB

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO-60%-80%


SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

[Extratropical94]

Winds at the stations in and north of Veracruz are coming out of northwesterly directions.

Continuous Winds
TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
6:00 am NNW ( 348 deg ) 24.1 kts
5:50 am NW ( 317 deg ) 8.9 kts
5:40 am NW ( 313 deg ) 7.0 kts
5:30 am WNW ( 296 deg ) 6.0 kts
5:20 am W ( 279 deg ) 6.0 kts
5:10 am W ( 270 deg ) 6.0 kts

[GCANE]

That flare is really going to town right at DMAX.

Nexsat is about an hour behind; so, no confirmation yet if this is a full-blown hot tower.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi goes bullish.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 21m

Ingrid to be getting into southern gulf. Maybe cat 2 or 3 when hits Mexico Mon near or north of Tampico.

[cycloneye]

Already looks impressive for a low pressure that just emerged the Yucatan. Saved image.

[stormlover2013]

He's not going bullish!!!

[supercane4867]

I don't think I've seen a TCFA issued before for a system still over land.

I'm sure that happened before on Yucatan (TS Marco come to mind)
Also seen often at Nortern Australia

[ROCK]

that is how they are supposed to react when they have a good LLC....-80 cold tops...CDO....reminds me of the good ole days!!

[Portastorm]

Pressure at this buoy is already down to 1008 mbars / 29.77 inches although the station is several hundred miles NW of Campeche, MX.



Pressure at the center is 1006 mbar.

AL, 93, 2013091206, , BEST, 0, 186N, 905W, 25, 1006, DB

I want to try and put this into perspective ... are you suggesting the area of low pressure in the SW Gulf/BOC is much larger than what is associated currently with the convection? A 2-millibar difference isn't very much and would suggest to me that the area of lowering pressures down there is quite large. Just trying to figure out what we can/should do with this information? Pro mets?

[Extratropical94]

Pressure at this buoy is already down to 1008 mbars / 29.77 inches although the station is several hundred miles NW of Campeche, MX.

http://imageshack.us/a/img853/9979/nmup.jpg

Pressure at the center is 1006 mbar.

AL, 93, 2013091206, , BEST, 0, 186N, 905W, 25, 1006, DB

I want to try and put this into perspective ... are you suggesting the area of low pressure in the SW Gulf/BOC is much larger than what is associated currently with the convection? A 2-millibar difference isn't very much and would suggest to me that the area of lowering pressures down there is quite large. Just trying to figure out what we can/should do with this information? Pro mets?

I'm not sure if this pressure drop is solely caused by the approaching invest area or by low pressures in that area in general.
On the one hand the low level circulation could very well still be relatively broad and cover a few thousand square miles, on the other hand I could also imagine that there are multiple low pressure areas around that disturbance that are trying to concentrate and consolidate and that this buoy's low pressure is a result of such a vortex nearby combined with a relatively strong negative semicircadian (12 hrly) pressure pulse which is common in the tropics. This oscillation can be seen as the pressure is currently rising again.
What also got my attention though is the fact that the stations in Veracruz also show similar pressures (29.77/78) and the EPAC disturbance (90E) that is somehow connected to this wave has an even lower pressure.

Hope that made some kind of sense.

[Portastorm]

Thanks! It does make sense to me and hopefully others here as well. Interesting information to be certain and it would appear that we have a somewhat complicated synoptic situation down there in the BOC at the moment.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2013091212, , BEST, 0, 195N, 927W, 30, 1005, LO

[gatorcane]

Looks like a bad situation unfolding for Mexico here. Considering how many times the same area has been hit the past few years with tropical systems, this is not what they need. The last system that impacted them this year (Fernand) caused some deaths I believe. This one could end up stronger than previous systems they have had looking at the models. Hope everybody in Mexico stays safe. Southern Texas may get some impacts as well so interests there should pay attention to the situation.

You all in Texas should thank that Texas ridge from keeping these storms away the past few seasons!

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[GCANE]

First vis showing one overshooting top firing and remnants of at least two building a cirrus canopy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/vis0-lalo.jpg

[hurricaneCW]

Lows that blow up as soon as they hit the water are always a bad sign. Combine that with the favorable environment of the BOC/SW Gulf and more time to organize and you have a big problem.

[blp]

:uarrow: that is how they are supposed to react when they have a good LLC....-80 cold tops...CDO....reminds me of the good ole days!!

No kidding Rock, it has been a grind the past few years to get systems going.

This looks like the year of the BOC, the area to watch may move a little more East in October to the W. Carribean and I think that is where we all need to watch out because anything that forms there will be drawn into the Gulf with the persistent troughs coming in over the eastern part of the US this year.

[ROCK]

yeah I am thankful as I fill up my pool and water my yard....

[RL3AO]

-80C convection already.