ATL: INGRID - Models

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Re:

#301 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:59 am

Tireman4 wrote:
Alyono wrote:we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas



How about just rain? Can we have the rain? :) No wind......And it can pull down a cold front like Ike did...then I am happy...


I like the HWRF purple model! This is exactly where we need this storm to go as far as getting rain where it is desperately needed! Central Texas is in a borderline disaster declaration (per Governor Perry) as far as the water supply situation. We don't need the destruction, but we are in dire need of the moisture. I'm not betting on anything though with these things. :roll:
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Re: Re:

#302 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:21 am

ROCK wrote:
Alyono wrote:we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas


a puny cat 1 or strong TS would be good to have... :D


Remember, Ike only brought cat 1 winds to the Houston area. The cat 2 winds were to the north. So careful calling cat 1s puny
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Re: Re:

#303 Postby Kalrany » Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:56 am

Alyono wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Alyono wrote:we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas


a puny cat 1 or strong TS would be good to have... :D


Remember, Ike only brought cat 1 winds to the Houston area. The cat 2 winds were to the north. So careful calling cat 1s puny



...and I have hear horror stories of the flooding from Tropical Storm Allison....
(Told to me when I started, with an admonishment of "...and if it looks like they are getting ready to call evacuation, already be on the road and try to be past Katy-- becuase during Rita..."
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Lansing MI, Galveston TX, Madison WI, Houston TX, Newark DE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#304 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:31 am

12Z GFS is rolling....but I can forecast the outcome. Ingrid will sit in the BOC for a few days before moving into MX...

wow and I dont even have to post the run... :lol:
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Re: Re:

#305 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:32 am

ROCK wrote:
Alyono wrote:we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas


a puny cat 1 or strong TS would be good to have... :D


Most Texans I know, especially in south central Texas, wouldn't mind a little yard cleanup from downed limbs if it meant ample rains. But yes, we could do without a "major" hitting the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#306 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:35 am

ROCK wrote:12Z GFS is rolling....but I can forecast the outcome. Ingrid will sit in the BOC for a few days before moving into MX...

wow and I dont even have to post the run... :lol:


LOL, which will be wrong because at the rate of things it looks like Ingrid might be inland in the next 24-48 hours if not sooner based on where the LLC appears to be setting up. :lol:
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ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 60% - 80%

#307 Postby TexWx » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:39 am

Image


Lookin' awfully accurate.
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Re: Re:

#308 Postby Houstonia » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:45 am

Portastorm wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Alyono wrote:we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas


a puny cat 1 or strong TS would be good to have... :D


Most Texans I know, especially in south central Texas, wouldn't mind a little yard cleanup from downed limbs if it meant ample rains. But yes, we could do without a "major" hitting the coast.


Yes, that is exactly right Portastorm. We (speaking for myself and my family) are used to, or are prepared to deal with wind, downed limbs, flooding rains, even some power outages, if it means that the weather trend might change back to the way it was pre-Ike. We've been in or near drought status ever since then.

Bring on a storm - bring us rain!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#309 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:45 am

The 12z GFS seems to develop the EPAC disturbance more than 93L on this run. This causes this system to be weaker and further south. The GFS has done this already in a few of its runs. Idk if I buy it based on how 93L looks currently.
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Re: Re:

#310 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:50 am

Tireman4 wrote:
Alyono wrote:we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas



How about just rain? Can we have the rain? :) No wind......And it can pull down a cold front like Ike did...then I am happy...


Like to see that. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#311 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:00 am

GFS 96...still down there at 96 hours 3 days

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_33.png
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#312 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:15 am

the GFS solution looks like a pile of cow dung

the EPAC system is not going to develop. Too much shear over it. Meanwhile, the BOC appears to be a TS based upon satellite imagery. GFS is clueless this time
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#313 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:17 am

Looks like GFS wants to consolidate 93L and 90E over the isthmus of Tehuantepec. Very strange solution and I'm not buying it either.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091212/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html
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Re:

#314 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:20 am

Alyono wrote:the GFS solution looks like a pile of cow dung

the EPAC system is not going to develop. Too much shear over it. Meanwhile, the BOC appears to be a TS based upon satellite imagery. GFS is clueless this time


Yeah and because it develops the EPAC system, it drags 93L to the southwest towards it. The 6z run moved 93L further north because it didn't develop the EPAC system.
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#315 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:31 am

6zGFS looks much more believable than the 12z run with regards to 93L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#316 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:31 am

Those GFS backers are long gone. This scenario would be like hitting a 12-team parlay in Vegas :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#317 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:35 am

Of course if this GFS scenario panned out, I will play the lottery.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#318 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:46 am

yeah..the only think I got out of this is the ridge over Texas is toast at 129hrs....starts retreating around 117hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#319 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:48 am

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90E_gefs_06z.png

This is only 6z forecast ensemble pattern, but this just proves how GFS is highly confused with EPAC system and system to north. This EPAC picking up on 93L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 60% - 80%

#320 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:49 am

TexWx wrote:Image


Lookin' awfully accurate.


I would have to say that the models are confused because of 93L and 90E, I don't see it diving SW like that at all.
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