EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

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EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:26 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309112114
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013091118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902013
EP, 90, 2013091018, , BEST, 0, 125N, 932W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 126N, 939W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 127N, 945W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013091112, , BEST, 0, 129N, 951W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2013091118, , BEST, 0, 132N, 956W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Former discussion thread in the Talking tropics section:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115630&hilit=

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:32 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2115 UTC WED SEP 11 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902013) 20130911 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130911 1800 130912 0600 130912 1800 130913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 95.6W 13.7N 96.1W 14.5N 96.6W 15.2N 97.0W
BAMD 13.2N 95.6W 13.4N 96.5W 13.9N 97.1W 14.5N 97.3W
BAMM 13.2N 95.6W 13.6N 96.4W 14.4N 96.8W 15.2N 96.9W
LBAR 13.2N 95.6W 13.6N 96.8W 14.6N 98.1W 15.8N 99.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130913 1800 130914 1800 130915 1800 130916 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 97.3W 16.4N 98.2W 16.9N 99.1W 17.9N 100.0W
BAMD 15.2N 97.3W 16.6N 97.2W 17.7N 98.0W 19.0N 99.6W
BAMM 15.8N 96.8W 16.9N 96.9W 17.8N 97.8W 18.8N 99.4W
LBAR 16.8N 101.2W 18.7N 104.0W 20.5N 106.6W 22.2N 109.0W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 52KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 95.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 94.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 93.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:32 pm

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:51 pm

If 93L develops into a hurricane this will likely get absorbed
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 10% - 20%

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:46 pm

Some frigid cloudtops being shot over this system.
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#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:06 am

Pretty low pressure for an EPAC disturbance in 2013.

EP, 90, 2013091206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 965W, 25, 1004, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 10% - 20%

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:34 am

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

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#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:33 pm

Code Orange

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY
TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 30% - 40%

#9 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 2:59 pm

Best Track has been updated to 30 knots and has dropped the pressure to 1002 mbar. We might end up with a depression starting off at <1000 mbar!

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#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:31 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 50% - 60%

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:05 pm

18z Best Track.

EP, 90, 2013091218, , BEST, 0, 144N, 990W, 30, 1002, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 50% - 60%

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:37 pm

00z Best Track.

EP, 90, 2013091300, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1005W, 30, 1000, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 50% - 60%

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track.

EP, 90, 2013091300, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1005W, 30, 1000, DB


This is a very low pressure for a system that isn't even a depression yet. I would be interested to see where this goes. Any models bringing it to hurricane strength?

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#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:36 pm

I am not to excited about this developing, granted I said the same thing for Lorena. If it forms, it'll be another weak TS IMO.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 50% - 60%

#15 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:47 pm

00Z GFS develops it into a very short-lived TS
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 50% - 60%

#16 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:54 am

Code Red

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
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#17 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 2:07 am

Sub-1000!

EP, 90, 2013091306, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1010W, 30, 999, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 60% - 60%

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:45 am

70%-70%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
WHILE THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E- 70% - 70%

#19 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:53 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep132013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309131441
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: EPAC: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:03 am

TD 13 on Friday the 13th.

:grrr:

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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