ATL: INGRID - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

"Don't look at NAM" but someone keeps posting the NavGem

[ROCK]

"Don't look at NAM" but someone keeps posting the NavGem

just trying to put a different spin on things....

[Wx_Warrior]

Very true sir! Maybe GFS has Sabine Pass on this run! I kid, I kid. Or do I ?

[ROCK]

48hr.....sub 1000.....drifting slightly NW

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_15.png

[Rgv20]

Thru 48 hours the 0zGFS is a bit Faster compare to the 18z run with TD10..



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[ROCK]

51hr look at the 500mb heights...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_18.png


60hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_19.png

[Rgv20]

Definitely a faster movement by the GFS...by Sunday Morning is NE of Tampico, same as the 12zECMWF.



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[Wx_Warrior]

66h



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[ROCK]

66hr.....looks like 90E wanted to hitch a ride on TD10.... ridge building in

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_23.png

[Rgv20]

66h

[img]http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/6742/7o5k.png

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0z GFS trended toward the 12zEuro timing wise for landfall of TD10 Sunday Evening/late night.

[South Texas Storms]

Will the faster movement make it more difficult for it to head further north?

[ROCK]

seems a lot faster than last run for sure....inland at 75hr...

[ROCK]

at 81hr the ridge retreats some from Texas but its already inland...

[HouTXmetro]

at 81hr the ridge retreats some from Texas but its already inland...

Unfortunately, Almost doesn't count. But since you have been watching has the spread between landfall and the Ridge collapsing shrank from previous runs?

[PTrackerLA]

Ridge really builds in after 48 hours on GFS. With the faster speed which matches well with the Euro I think the forecast is pretty clear cut.

[stormlover2013]

Dang this is all about timing!!! Ridge breaks down quick on tues.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Think it might be about time to put this one to bed Rock. Just don't see this ridge moving enough by landfall to even let it legitimately threaten deep south Texas. Maybe just maybe the gulf has one or two more weak systems left in it to give us hope. But then by the time that happens the fronts will probably be so strong they will curve everything ne into Florida instead

[ROCK]

well hold on the GFS has this making a loop after heading inland and gets back into the GOM?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_42.png

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ridge really builds in after 48 hours on GFS. With the faster speed which matches well with the Euro I think the forecast is pretty clear cut.

Yep PT. After this front makes it down to us with little fanfare the ridge quickly builds in and parks itself right over us. Y'all getting really dry over there as well?

[ROCK]

yeah looks pretty clear cut....it goes inland..just lower pressures in the BOC after it leaves.

but thou shalt not give up hope as the NAVGEM is running.....