ATL: INGRID - Models

[Kludge]

May be a bad (albeit timely) analogy, but why don't we let models decide the outcome of aggy -vs- tide this weekend, based on history and current environmental factors?

Naaahhh... let's go ahead and let 'em take the field and see what happens. Who knows... there may be surprises that arise that even the 'experts' didn't foretell...

[stormlover2013]

Post the navgem when u can rock.

[PTrackerLA]

Ridge really builds in after 48 hours on GFS. With the faster speed which matches well with the Euro I think the forecast is pretty clear cut.

Yep PT. After this front makes it down to us with little fanfare the ridge quickly builds in and parks itself right over us. Y'all getting really dry over there as well?

Yeah we sure are I don't think I've had more than 2" at my house over the past month. We had over a foot of rainfall surplus basically vanish during the summer so it's been a dry one but not nearly as bad as it would have been if the spring wasn't so wet. Hopefully we'll at least get a few days of elevated rain chances from TD 10's moisture after landfall, the GFS shows this to be a possibility.

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_34.png

24hr 997mb


48hr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_34.png

[ROCK]

78hr making landfall just south of Brownsville

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF has TD10 making landfall in 72 hours Sunday Evening/Late Night a good 100 miles north of Tampico give or take, basically in the same location as the 0zGFS.

[South Texas Storms]

Is it another slight northward shift for the Euro on the 0z compared to the 12z run?

[HouTXmetro]

link?

[ROCK]

unless something drastic happens the models have zeroed in on North MX.....would not have thought that in mid Sept with a ridge holding on as long as it has....we had a good run at it..just poor timing..game over...

[Bailey1777]

hey Rock.......models aside.....just watching whats going on in real time what is ever going to happen to lift this system and not just have it continue west.

[Rgv20]

:uarrow:
Is it another slight northward shift for the Euro on the 0z compared to the 12z run?

It's practically in the same position as the 12z run.

[ROCK]

hey Rock.......models aside.....just watching whats going on in real time what is ever going to happen to lift this system and not just have it continue west.

that ULL dropping SW down into MX will help lift this up and once Ingrid feels that ridge she will start her NW trek....if the ridge is stronger than progged she could go in farther south.....

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z GFS shows it moving slowly NNE over the next 27 hours as the EPAC disturbance continues to move westward away from this system.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091312/gfs_z850_vort_watl_10.png

[South Texas Storms]

Through 51 hours, the 12z GFS has basically moved this system due north and is slower and stronger than the 6z run so far.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_16.png

[ROCK]

Seems a tad north and east on this run bit I am sure it will correct itself and hang a left turn shortly..

[ROCK]

69hr she feels the ridge and starts her journey to MX...stronger also than before

[Wx_Warrior]

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[Rgv20]

It looks like the 12zGFS initialize TS Ingrid a bit to far East, but in my opinion a landfall just north of Tampico is a good bet right now.

[ROCK]

game set match...however the NAM shows a weaker ridge and weak system..but same timeline...buts it's the NAM

[South Texas Storms]

Wow the 12z GFS is much drier across central TX. Heartbreaking run. Instead of several inches like in the previous runs, not much this one. Ouch.