Global model runs discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Man, I need to come knock the cobwebs and dust off this thread. After this brief uptick in activity this week are models now back to showing nothing again for the rest of the month? Not that it wouldn't surprise me one bit, guess I just got caught up in the quick moment watching *gasp* an actual hurricane and storm.

[gatorcane]

What I find incredibly shocking is that every run of the GFS and ECMWF even in the long-range (out through 384 hours on the GFS) this season so far haven't shown any hurricane landfalls so far for the CONUS...and so far they have been right. In years past I can remember both these models (more so the GFS) would show "model" storms hitting the CONUS in the long-range to at least provide some discussion for folks on this board. This year...NADA.

When I look at both models today, they still show nothing for the next two weeks hitting the CONUS during the peak month of September. The BOC system gets close to Texas but still no U.S. landfalls. Quiet season so far for CONUS hits for sure...who would have thought with all the expert analysis suggesting CONUS would see some hits this year? Can it last through the rest of hurricane season like this is the big question?

Bumping this...still no CONUS threats when looking at the long-range GFS and ECMWF and the long-range GFS goes out through almost the end of September.

[HurrMark]

I poinr

Bumping this...still no CONUS threats when looking at the long-range GFS and ECMWF and the long-range GFS goes out through almost the end of September.

Since 2006 (except 2008), the pattern has been very much the same - a trough off or on the East Coast and a strong ridge over Texas and the Plains during the height of the season driving any western basin storms westward. It is not that we had a lack of major landfalls (Cuba had four during this time span I believe), but they have not been over the US. Either storms have recurved or slid into Central America and Mexico. We had obviously had a couple of East Coast landfalls in 2011 and 2012 (with Sandy and Irene) and Isaac last year, but there have been no hurricanes between eastern Louisiana and North Carolina since 2005. This includes almost half the Gulf Coast, south Florida and much of the Carolinas...an incredible stretch. Whether it is luck or a multi-year pattern, I cannot say...but to have an eight year stretch with over 100 storms forming during this period is incredible.

I will say this...if the pattern holds another 5 years or so, expect wind-related insurance premiums to go down...way down...especially in Florida.

[alienstorm]

It won't happen - insurance premiums in Florida that is..

[HurrMark]

They will go down for insurance companies to stay competitive. If a couple of companies take the risk after 10-15 years of no hurricanes in the state, and lower rates based on actuarial calculations using historical experience, others will follow suit. Insurance is a game of reaction and overreaction. Think about what happened before and after Andrew. We might be in that same cycle now...the "before" part, that is. South Florida went 13 years without a hurricane strike, rates were low, and bam...they skyrocketed after Andrew.

Already, at least one catastrophe vendor has shown a 1-2% reduction in losses based on incorporating the 2009-2010 hurricane seasons in its most recent model. If the pattern continues, that will become more substantial

[hurricaneCW]

What I find incredibly shocking is that every run of the GFS and ECMWF even in the long-range (out through 384 hours on the GFS) this season so far haven't shown any hurricane landfalls so far for the CONUS...and so far they have been right. In years past I can remember both these models (more so the GFS) would show "model" storms hitting the CONUS in the long-range to at least provide some discussion for folks on this board. This year...NADA.

When I look at both models today, they still show nothing for the next two weeks hitting the CONUS during the peak month of September. The BOC system gets close to Texas but still no U.S. landfalls. Quiet season so far for CONUS hits for sure...who would have thought with all the expert analysis suggesting CONUS would see some hits this year? Can it last through the rest of hurricane season like this is the big question?

Bumping this...still no CONUS threats when looking at the long-range GFS and ECMWF and the long-range GFS goes out through almost the end of September.

A storm spinning off the SE coast isn't a CONUS threat? The gfs has been pretty consistent with this in the long range. Now if it can bring it closer, then it'll get a lot more interesting but we are expecting to get a lot more ridging in the east about 7-10 days from now with strong highs coming off the coast that will aide in tropical development. The eastern ridging, which the Euro suggests could exist in October will certainly open up the tropical door for the Gulf and east coast.

[ninel conde]

yea, gfs does show a storm just off the coast the last week of sept.

[LarryWx]

Ninel and hurricaneCW are absolutely correct. Actually, a good number of GFS runs have been hinting at homebrew trouble for late month (say within 9/23-28 range). As Ninel rightly likes to emphasize, it would seem to be helpful if the NE/far western Atlantic ridging were to actually "lock in" and hang around a good number of days as opposed to quick transition from ridge to trough as that would seeingly better promote surface convergence and cyclone formation below it near the SE US. This situation is well worth monitoring due to the persistence of threats on GFS runs for late month and could very well be the next CONUS threat.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Only have to wait til the last week of september Better start boarding up now

[LarryWx]

Only have to wait til the last week of september Better start boarding up now

Well, Mike, you were asking if the models were showing no threats for the rest of the month. The answer is a flatout no, not at this time since numerous GFS runs have been showing the late month homebrew threat for several days. Also, the Euro has at least hinted at something somehat similar setting up at the end of some runs. Let's see if these modeled homebrews continue to appear and finally wake up the board a bit more.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
Well, the 0Z GFS dropped the late month SE US cyclone threat. However, that run was quite different from recent runs and is no reason to give up by any means. Let's see what future runs do.

[LaBreeze]

yea, gfs does show a storm just off the coast the last week of sept.

Local met mentioned this same thing on last night's newscast. He mentioned that the GOM may be dealing with something "possibly" more potent in a week or two than what is out there at this time.

[ninel conde]

06GFS has a low off the coast at 240 but it just scoots offshore. if a high were locked in and the low hung around it might amount to something. my prediction of no cane landfalls this season looks sweet.

[hurricaneCW]

06GFS has a low off the coast at 240 but it just scoots offshore. if a high were locked in and the low hung around it might amount to something. my prediction of no cane landfalls this season looks sweet.

Every run will be different especially if you're talking 10+ days out. I am just looking for trends and all signs point to much stronger ridging then we've been seeing so far this month. We shall see if it is able to lock in more, timing is always crucial when it comes to land falling systems as well.

[ninel conde]

06GFS has a low off the coast at 240 but it just scoots offshore. if a high were locked in and the low hung around it might amount to something. my prediction of no cane landfalls this season looks sweet.

Every run will be different especially if you're talking 10+ days out. I am just looking for trends and all signs point to much stronger ridging then we've been seeing so far this month. We shall see if it is able to lock in more, timing is always crucial when it comes to land falling systems as well.

maybe, but the ridging was supposed to be here already. front coming through today, and another one early next week.

[CourierPR]

"Brazilian meteo gram for Miami. 990 mb pressure. its seeing something later this month pic.twitter.com/MFYDE2V6sW."

The above is a recent tweet from Metrologist Joe Bastardi. Maybe things won't be as quiet as advertised.

[Bocadude85]

06GFS has a low off the coast at 240 but it just scoots offshore. if a high were locked in and the low hung around it might amount to something. my prediction of no cane landfalls this season looks sweet.

Were not even into October yet. South Florida gets hit by more hurricanes in the month of October then any other month. Those fronts that you keep talking about will be Florida's worst enemy in October as they will draw anything down in the Caribbean right up over Florida.

[LarryWx]

06GFS has a low off the coast at 240 but it just scoots offshore. if a high were locked in and the low hung around it might amount to something. my prediction of no cane landfalls this season looks sweet.

Every run will be different especially if you're talking 10+ days out. I am just looking for trends and all signs point to much stronger ridging then we've been seeing so far this month. We shall see if it is able to lock in more, timing is always crucial when it comes to land falling systems as well.

maybe, but the ridging was supposed to be here already. front coming through today, and another one early next week.

Ninel is making a good point here. Early month GFS runs were suggesting NE US ridging locking in and dominating 9/15-22. Since then, there has been plenty of delay and now they're hedging on NE ridging taking over even during late month. As a result, the 0z-12Z GFS runs of today dropped the late Sep. SE US cyclone threat. Let's see if the modeled threat returns.

[Blown Away]

"Brazilian meteo gram for Miami. 990 mb pressure. its seeing something later this month pic.twitter.com/MFYDE2V6sW."

The above is a recent tweet from Metrologist Joe Bastardi. Maybe things won't be as quiet as advertised.

Looks like September 29th...Don't see anything in the Euro/GFS...So I'm banking it's nada...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

06GFS has a low off the coast at 240 but it just scoots offshore. if a high were locked in and the low hung around it might amount to something. my prediction of no cane landfalls this season looks sweet.

Every run will be different especially if you're talking 10+ days out. I am just looking for trends and all signs point to much stronger ridging then we've been seeing so far this month. We shall see if it is able to lock in more, timing is always crucial when it comes to land falling systems as well.

maybe, but the ridging was supposed to be here already. front coming through today, and another one early next week.

Ninel is making a good point here. Early month GFS runs were suggesting NE US ridging locking in and dominating 9/15-22. Since then, there has been plenty of delay and now they're hedging on NE ridging taking over even during late month. As a result, the 0z-12Z GFS runs of today dropped the late Sep. SE US cyclone threat. Let's see if the modeled threat returns.[/quote]

Thank goodness some others remember this. All we heard since late august was just get ready for a major pattern change and greater landfall threats by mid September due to ridging building and staying put. And as Larry and ninel said its mid September and the Atlantic ridge is nowhere to be seen. All I see is a huge trough off the east coast once again. So now I guess its wait til end of September or early October and the pattern will change. Sure we might get high pressure to build over the Atlantic for a few days only to have another trough and cold front drop down. Only thing that will probably change by early october is the ridge over Texas and LA. By then fronts should be strong enough to start weakening it a lot, I hope.