ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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#561 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:20 pm

NOAA planes often have lower extrap pressures than do the AF. Wait for a dropsonde
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#562 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:23 pm

Alyono wrote:NOAA planes often have lower extrap pressures than do the AF. Wait for a dropsonde

They dropped one. 993mb with 14kt surface winds.
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#563 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:24 pm

Just saw the dropsonde... I have to say I'm surprised that the pressure has continued to fall this much despite the moderate shear
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#564 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:28 pm

Well it's over some serious bath water...just shows how vigorous the LLC is...no model had it this strong this soon...
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#565 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:30 pm

Alyono wrote:Just saw the dropsonde... I have to say I'm surprised that the pressure has continued to fall this much despite the moderate shear


Shear doesn't seem to be much of an issue. I didn't think it would be and I don't think it will be in the future either.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#566 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:34 pm

So will this be upgraded to 50 mph at 8PM?

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#567 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:42 pm

Strong winds. Uncontaminated.

223530 1953N 09459W 8432 01473 0015 +135 +076 109041 045 048 025 00
223600 1952N 09500W 8433 01469 0010 +136 +076 107038 040 057 031 00
223630 1951N 09502W 8417 01489 0011 +139 +075 099034 036 061 027 00
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#568 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:Strong winds. Uncontaminated.

223530 1953N 09459W 8432 01473 0015 +135 +076 109041 045 048 025 00
223600 1952N 09500W 8433 01469 0010 +136 +076 107038 040 057 031 00
223630 1951N 09502W 8417 01489 0011 +139 +075 099034 036 061 027 00


and thats kts not mph, correct? At that point its getting close to hurricane speed
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#569 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Strong winds. Uncontaminated.

223530 1953N 09459W 8432 01473 0015 +135 +076 109041 045 048 025 00
223600 1952N 09500W 8433 01469 0010 +136 +076 107038 040 057 031 00
223630 1951N 09502W 8417 01489 0011 +139 +075 099034 036 061 027 00


Again, the auto flagger is not to relied upon. Anything outside of the Franklin et al (2003) range should be disregarded
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#570 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:53 pm

Those are heavily rain-contaminated, so those are definitely too high. Intensity is likely 45-50 kt.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#571 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:53 pm

We might have a 60-65 mph storm with a pressure of 992-993 mbar at 8PM or 11PM EDT, based on this data, am I correct? :crazyeyes:

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#572 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:54 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:We might have a 60-65 mph storm with a pressure of 992-993 mbar at 8PM or 11PM EDT, based on this data, am I correct? :crazyeyes:

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Nope.

Likely 50 or 55 MPH
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#573 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:54 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:We might have a 60-65 mph storm with a pressure of 992-993 mbar at 8PM or 11PM EDT, based on this data, am I correct? :crazyeyes:

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Probably not that high for winds. SFMR is rain-contaminated so I would drop at least 10 kt from those, if not more.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#574 Postby lester » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:Strong winds. Uncontaminated.

223530 1953N 09459W 8432 01473 0015 +135 +076 109041 045 048 025 00
223600 1952N 09500W 8433 01469 0010 +136 +076 107038 040 057 031 00
223630 1951N 09502W 8417 01489 0011 +139 +075 099034 036 061 027 00


Heavy rain rates means that it is likely rain-contaminated.
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#575 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:03 pm

From what I can see, the center seems to be moving slowly southeast. Probably that loop that models had is going on now.
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#576 Postby lester » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:04 pm

Time_Zone wrote:This place sure is dead right now wow.


It's not hitting Texas or any other Gulf Coast states so (most) people here don't care. That goes for the EPAC/CPAC/WPAC/any other basin. Sad but true
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#577 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:07 pm

One thing I have noticed in the past with a TS is that NHC hardly uses 55mph... just 50 or 60. Does anyone know why?
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Re:

#578 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:08 pm

SeGaBob wrote:One thing I have noticed in the past with a TS is that NHC hardly uses 55mph... just 50 or 60. Does anyone know why?


It's related to conversion and rounding of knots. 45 kt = 52 mph, rounded down to 50. 50 kt = 58 mph, rounded up to 60.
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Re: Re:

#579 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:One thing I have noticed in the past with a TS is that NHC hardly uses 55mph... just 50 or 60. Does anyone know why?


It's related to conversion and rounding of knots. 45 kt = 52 mph, rounded down to 50. 50 kt = 58 mph, rounded up to 60.


Ok that sounds reasonable... thanks for the reply. :)
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Re:

#580 Postby Airboy » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:From what I can see, the center seems to be moving slowly southeast. Probably that loop that models had is going on now.



From the recon data it looks like it moving a bit NE.
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