ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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hurricanes1234
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Re:

#581 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:13 pm

SeGaBob wrote:One thing I have noticed in the past with a TS is that NHC hardly uses 55mph... just 50 or 60. Does anyone know why?


They also rarely use 95 mph, 130 mph and 170 mph.

Anyway, back to Ingrid, it looks like it would be stronger by tonight. Let's hope all of the people in its path stay safe.

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Re: Re:

#582 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:34 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:One thing I have noticed in the past with a TS is that NHC hardly uses 55mph... just 50 or 60. Does anyone know why?


They also rarely use 95 mph, 130 mph and 170 mph.


One small note on this, I think the scale was altered this year so that 130mph will be used more instead of 135mph.
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#583 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:36 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

It does appear to be strengthening some even though it has some shear over it... I think it may get stronger than what is currently forecasted but I'm not making any wild guesses right now... and thanks to the people who answered my earlier question. :)


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Last edited by SeGaBob on Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#584 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:38 pm

Needs to get some space between it and Manuel.
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#585 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:54 pm

Hurricane Watch issued.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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#586 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:56 pm

That Special Advisory was a bit surprising, I guess they wanted to upgrade to a Hurricane Watch right away. It's the first hurricane-level land alert since Sandy?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#587 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:56 pm

Read the Special Advisory here.
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#588 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:00 pm

Yesterday's lowball intensity forecast already proven to be a mistake.
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SeGaBob

#589 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:02 pm

I think unless the structure of this storm collapses it might can get stronger than 75mph.:)



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#590 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:03 pm

The improvement to the banding on the north side over the past couple hours is very impressive.
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Re:

#591 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:05 pm

SeGaBob wrote:I think unless the structure of this storm collapses it might can get stronger than 75mph.:)



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I'm thinking if it spends 3 days over water, that may be very conservative still...a major hurricane may not be out of the question.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#592 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:07 pm

Strongest storm thus far in 2013 in this hotspot area of the Bay of Campeche.
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#593 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:07 pm

If the current rate of intensification continues, it could be a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. This has certainly gotten its act together today, and seems to be outperforming the intensity forecasts at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#594 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:08 pm

Special Advisory forecast track.

Image
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#595 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:08 pm

Bastardi's Cat2 forecast isnt looking so out of touch now. (The curse of the 'I' storm :eek: )
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#596 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:09 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Strongest storm thus far in 2013 in this hotspot area of the Bay of Campeche.


???

Humberto doesn't count now?
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SeGaBob

Re: Re:

#597 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:09 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:I think unless the structure of this storm collapses it might can get stronger than 75mph.:)


I'm thinking if it spends 3 days over water, that may be very conservative still...a major hurricane may not be out of the question.




It wouldn't surprise me to get at least a Category 2 before landfall if not stronger like you say... but then again it is 2013 so you never really can tell. :)
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#598 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:14 pm

I noticed at the last vortex msg that the dew point inside the center was the same as the temperature (17C) which is up 5C from the first VM from the last recon. Is this an indication of strengthening?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#599 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 pm

RL3AO wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Strongest storm thus far in 2013 in this hotspot area of the Bay of Campeche.


???

Humberto doesn't count now?


Humberto was not in the Bay of Campeche. I was only referring to storms in this region (Barry, Fernand and Ingrid). :)
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#600 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:22 pm

Ingrid's small size could allow it to become a hurricane and possibly as early as tonight or tomorrow.
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